New SpaceX Starlink Terminals, Satellites and Factories

Sam Korus of Ark Invest analysis shows SpaceX Starlink will be able to serve 30 million customers with 12000 Starlink Satellites. This would be $6 billion of revenue per year for SpaceX.

The key inputs for the Ark SpaceX Starlink model are:
The number of satellites in the constellation.
The bandwidth of each satellite, measured in megabits per second — Mbps.
The oversubscription ratio (not everyone in the same area is online at the same time).
The acceptable cost of broadband, measured as a percent of monthly GDP.
The minimum bandwidth in Mbps Starlink will provide.

SpaceX has a new Starlink user terminal and dish factory in Texas. SpaceX has designed a rectangular flat terminal that will be lower cost and higher performance. SpaceX should be making millions of terminals by the end of 2021.

SpaceX should have its first orbital Super Heavy Starship flight this month or next month. If Super Heavy Starship can start delivering 400 Starlink Satellites at a time then this will speed up deployment of the constellation by six times over the same number of Falcon 9 flights. The 12000 Starlink will probably be fully deployed sometime in 2023.

SpaceX has new Starlink satellites with laser connections and higher power.

SpaceX has filed to launch another 30,000 satellites. The further increase in satellites will quadruple revenue and the number of customers. SpaceX would need about 80 Super Heavy Starship launches for the additional 30,000 satellites. This should happen in 2024-2025. SpaceX with over $24 billion per year in revenue for Starlink and $4 billion per year in launch revenue would surpass the entire budget of NASA.

SOURCES – Ark Invest, Hyperchange
Written by Brian Wang,