Taiwan Needs to Signal Military Resolve

Taiwan is considering a 5.6% military budget increase over the 2021 allocation and come to the usual 2.3% of gross domestic product. The new budget is in response to a surge in Chinese activity in or near the Taiwanese air defense identification zone since mid-2020.

World War 2 might have been avoided if there was a clearer indication of resolve and capability before the war. If the allies had rearmed a few years earlier or if the US had send 2 million troops to France before it was invaded, then Germany would have been deterred.

If the US is willing to defend Taiwan and Taiwan is willing to strongly resist any invasion by China then this resolve needs to be clearly and unambiguously signaled.

Israel has a GDP of $450 billion. Taiwan has a GDP of $700 billion. Israel has a defence budget of about $21.7 billion while Taiwan is considering $17.7 billion. Israel spends 5.6% of its GDP on defence and Taiwan is at 2.3%. Israel has been able to grow its economy while sustaining higher levels of military spending. Israel also exports weapons and weapons technology.

Taiwan is a global leader with semiconductors and has other advanced technological capabilities.

The Taiwan Air Force has about 70,000 personnel and over 400 combat aircraft. The current inventory includes approximately 180 older F-5E/F fighters and over 100 more modern Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDFs). Fighters.

On August 20, 2019, the sale of F-16 C/D Block 70, also known as F-16V, was officially approved by the State Department and formally submitted to Congress. The 66 newly built F-16s will be supplied with 75 General Electric F110 engines and 75 AN/APG-83 Scalable Agile Beam AESA radars. The final signing of the Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for the purchase of 66 F-16V fighter jets was confirmed on December 21, 2019.

Israel has about 230 F-15 and F-16 jets and 18 F35s.

Taiwan needs to be able to make its own missiles and submarines.

In 2014, Taiwan decided to launch its indigenous submarine production program, with a view to having the first of eight examples in ROCN service by 2025.

There was a 2018 decision by the U.S. State Department to license key submarine technology for the island, which apparently included the boats’ combat management systems, as well as other technical assistance.

Taiwan’s submarine-building program studied the Dutch-built Hai Lung class plans. Other foreign know-how will likely be required, too. Taiwan requires assistance in manufacturing pressure-resistant hulls.

Diesel electric submarines can be built for about $500-1000 million. The current plan for Taiwan’s so-called Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program is to build eight new submarines at an estimated cost of up to US$16 billion, which is increasing the size of its fleet from effectively two today to ten a decade from now. The first new indigenous submarine, now under construction, is scheduled to be completed as early as autumn 2024.

If Taiwan increased procurement by $16 billion, they could build, man and train eight submarines every four years for 25% of the budget increase. A domestic missile program would also be ramped up.

SOURCES- IISS, Defense Industry Daily, the Drive, Wikipedia
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

21 thoughts on “Taiwan Needs to Signal Military Resolve”

  1. Your commentary about WW2 is near sighted at best.

    The devastating losses incurred during WW1 brought about a lasting scar on populations of all the allies, this in turn affected the clay footed attitudes of their governments in committing to pro war actions such as military build up and conscription.

    This is why it took Japan attacking Pearl Harbour after allying with Germany for the US to finally commit to the war.

    It's why Britain and France were pussyfooting about preparations for war rather than just going all in the moment Germany started showing its intentions to start another.

    The allies were so obsessed with what they had lost in WW1 that they did not consider WW2 a possibility until it was far too late to begin preparations that would have kept the Germans in check without direct military engagement.

  2. But remember than Korea, Japan, Singapore and India would all react to any attempt at Invasion.

    Submarines have the ability to fire torpedoes into a Chinese flotilla and disappear without ever having to declare what country they are from.

  3. Taiwan could go nuclear over a long weekend. And, Japan could develop a deliverable nuclear weapon within 24 hours.

  4. Well, their situations are different: Taiwan faces takeover by a totalitarian state that wants to absorb their population. Israel faces genocidal threats from groups that just want them dead, period. So Israel's stakes are a bit higher.

    And a good deal of China's subversion budget is probably spent in Taiwan.

  5. Taiwan does not have the will to fight. They will surrender as fast as the CCP troops can advance. Many will die in CCP camps.

  6. If they look like they're getting nukes, China will invade. The time to give Taiwan nukes was 1964.

  7. Israel doesn't count its power by the number of its fighter jets and tanks anymore. Actually the number of Tanks in the Israeli Army were cut by half in the last 10 years.
    Israel counts its power by its technology supremacy nowadays, about 3B a year are going to fight its secretive "War between wars" as it is called, against Iran and its proxies and increasing its intelligence gathering and cyber capabilities. Most information about the operations taking place in this attrition war has not been published.
    Israel continues developing its missile defense capabilities including laser and ballistic missiles. New intelligence gathering jet with unprecedent capabilities and system that fuses all intelligence data and sends it directly to the relevant field units using AI is of a special note.



  8. World War 2 might have been avoided if there was a clearer indication of resolve and capability before the war. If the allies had rearmed a few years earlier

    Very possible, given a couple of different election results or political decisions going another way.

    or if the US had send 2 million troops to France before it was invaded, then Germany would have been deterred.

    Absolute fantasy. Could never have happened in a world that looks even a bit like ours.

  9. Nuclear power in Taiwan accounts for 5,028 MWe of capacity by means of 3 active plants and 6 reactors, which makes up around 8.1% of its national energy consumption, and 19% of its electricity generation as of 2015.

  10. Taiwan could save that 5.6% considering every man, woman and child in America is willing to die for Taiwan, except me and mine.

    What is it with the impotent's love of sending feel good yet ultimately meaningless signals.

  11. Pretty much: Becoming a nuclear power IS how you "signal military resolve". Refraining from obtaining the most powerful and cost-effective weapons available hardly shows resolve.

  12. Taiwan is a science illiterate antinuclear power Big Oil client state. It deserves to be absorbed into China as a penalty for incompetence.

  13. You’re right. Taiwan should take Israel as a model. Doubling their defense spending as a fraction of GDP would be a clear signal.

    Israel is also an interesting model for nuclear capability since it has long been recognized as having it but has never formally announced it and does not brandish it. Taiwan might transition to being a nuclear power without ever announcing anything, various intelligence services would just keep upping their estimate of it’s capabilities.

    As the world leader in Chip fabs especially in leading edge NN chips it’s well positioned to be a leader in next generation autonomous weapons of various sorts that would provide an off set against PRC.

  14. Peace and cooperation, fuc$ military and all this fearmongering, fck media manipulating people and all those headlines for $clicks

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