Tesla China August Production 20% Over Estimates

Tesla China had August production of 44,200 which is about 20% over analyst expectations. There had been a rumor two weeks ago that Tesla China had increased model Y production to 1000 per day instead of 500 per day in July. Tesla China is also producing Model 3 at 800 per day.

The combined 1800 per day appears to be confirmed with the August number. This would indicate September should have 54,000 cars produced for Tesla China.

Fremont is increasing Model S production.

Tesla should have about 245,000 cars produced for Q3 2021.

Q4 should see the start of Tesla Austin and Tesla Berlin production and further Model S ramp and perhaps the restart of a refreshed Model X.

Tesla Q4 should see three months of the new Tesla China production level and further Fremont production and some Austin and Berlin production. This should be 280,000-300,000 cars. The first half of the year had 386,000 cars produced. Tesla should reach full-year production for 2021 of 900,000 to 930,000.

The Q4 2021 production level should be surpassed for every quarter in 2022 as Berlin and Austin are ramped.

2021 could see Tesla surpass four times the fourth quarter of 2020 by 200,000 cars with the continued ramping of China. 2022 could see Tesla surpass four times the fourth quarter of 2020 by 300,000-400,000 with two major factories ramping. Fremont and Shanghai should also see more production. There should be 10,000-20,000 more Model S and X each quarter or 40,000-80,000 for the full year.

SOURCES- Tesla, Teslarati
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian has shares of Tesla)