Tesla China August Production 20% Over Estimates

Tesla China had August production of 44,200 which is about 20% over analyst expectations. There had been a rumor two weeks ago that Tesla China had increased model Y production to 1000 per day instead of 500 per day in July. Tesla China is also producing Model 3 at 800 per day.

The combined 1800 per day appears to be confirmed with the August number. This would indicate September should have 54,000 cars produced for Tesla China.

Fremont is increasing Model S production.

Tesla should have about 245,000 cars produced for Q3 2021.

Q4 should see the start of Tesla Austin and Tesla Berlin production and further Model S ramp and perhaps the restart of a refreshed Model X.

Tesla Q4 should see three months of the new Tesla China production level and further Fremont production and some Austin and Berlin production. This should be 280,000-300,000 cars. The first half of the year had 386,000 cars produced. Tesla should reach full-year production for 2021 of 900,000 to 930,000.

The Q4 2021 production level should be surpassed for every quarter in 2022 as Berlin and Austin are ramped.

2021 could see Tesla surpass four times the fourth quarter of 2020 by 200,000 cars with the continued ramping of China. 2022 could see Tesla surpass four times the fourth quarter of 2020 by 300,000-400,000 with two major factories ramping. Fremont and Shanghai should also see more production. There should be 10,000-20,000 more Model S and X each quarter or 40,000-80,000 for the full year.

SOURCES- Tesla, Teslarati
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian has shares of Tesla)

4 thoughts on “Tesla China August Production 20% Over Estimates”

  1. Over the last 15 years Tesla has pushed through a change to a major part of industry that is going to flow through to affecting the day to day life of just about everyone.
    This is a change that has been "around the corner" since at least 1970, but nobody got it working until Tesla. Now they pushed it over the top, and even if this does end up being dominated by Hyundai or VAG or a revived Studebaker or whatever, it will be Tesla that got it happening.
    Furthermore, adoption of EVs widely will, combined with fracking tech, break the hold that middle east oil has had on world geopolitics over the past 3/4 century.

    As a third major leaver, Tesla is also in the process of rolling out self driving, in other words, robots taking over what is, again a huge chunk of modern society. If the claim that the average person has about a 30 minute commute each way, that's 1 hour of driving per 8 hour work day. You can wave your hands and say that this is, in effect, something like 16% of the actual work output that people do. If we were paid for it, it'd be 16% of GDP. We just don't count it because you aren't paid for the hours spent going to and from work.

    Except the numbers DO show up in the GDP, as housing costs. Because a commute is "work", people pay far more for housing close to work than 2 hours away.

    Having said that, Brian does concentrate a bit much on the actual corporate profits of Tesla, probably because he personally is an investor and hence it strikes HIM as important.

  2. To much this tesla stuff, we have so many interesting things/breakthroughs happening in science and tech everyday. And here we have some minor news/update about number of cars produced from one of many car companies…

  3. The opening numbers don’t add up with 1800 per WEEK. I think you mean per day rather than per week – which gets the numbers much closer. Then it’s just a matter of X how many operating days in the month.


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