Without Further Intervention 3 Degrees is Worst Case 2100 Climate Warming

Assessment of current policies by two researchers published in the journal Nature suggests that the world is on course for around 3 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels. The world is already at 1 °C of warming above pre-industrial levels.

The RCP 8.5 degrees scenario assumes that things like coal usage will go up 5 to 6 times from today’s levels. Coal use has been flat or declining since 2013. RCP8.5 was originally created as an unlikely high-risk future. Experts, policymakers and the media have pitched it as the likely ‘business as usual’ outcome.

Electrifying all cars, trucks and other transportation using non-fossil fuel electricity would remove 26% of the CO2 problem.

Solar power electricity for home power and heating would take out another 15%.

Electrifying most of the power grid with solar, wind, hydro and nuclear would remove about half of the rest of the problem.

The remaining industrial portion would be best handled by offsetting CO2 production.

Cheap CO2 offsets from growing a lot more trees or algae could offset a ton of CO2 for less than $1. This could be done far faster and cheaper than decarbonizing transportation and the entire grid.

We are going to electrify all cars and trucks anyway because electric cars and trucks will be cheaper to operate. The Tesla Semi has about half the project operating cost of a diesel truck.

The 2.5 degree celsius scenario by 2100 is the likely scenario where all cars and trucks go electric by 2060 and where solar and wind and battery power get to 50% more more of power generation.

Globally, fossil fuels account for a much smaller share of electricity production than the energy system as a whole. In 2019, around 64% of our electricity came from fossil fuels.

SOURCES – Nature, Our World in Data
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com