Another Decade of Tesla, SpaceX, Cryptocurrency, Apple Domination

What would the rough shape of the world be if the Big Tech companies and Cryptocurrency continue on their current trajectories?

For years, people with traditional financial backgrounds would say that Apple, Tesla or other Big Tech would not continue multiplying profitability and revenue. People have been saying this about Tesla, Cryptocurrency and many other Big Tech companies and sectors. Here I will assume that technology winners keep winning along a path that is similar to what they did the last 5-10 years and see what the world would be like. Valuations will reach the level of the GDP of the largest countries but stock valuations can 30X or 100X multiples of non-GAAP net income if high growth is sustainable.

Apple almost has a valuation of $3 trillion. Apple reached $1.5 trillion June 2020 and $1 trillion on August 2, 2018. Apple was $300 billion in 2010 and $500 billion in 2012. Many people were saying that Apple could not continue increasing its market value.

Apple had a 5X move from 2005-2010 and then a 2X from 2010-2015 and then another 5X from 2015-2021. Apple could then reach $6 trillion from 2022-2026 and then $12-25 trillion by 2031.

Microsoft is at $2.5 trillion valuation. Microsoft was at $483 billion in 2016 and $230 billion in 2010. Microsoft could be at $6 trillion in 2026 and $12-30 trillion in 2031.

Alphabet (google) has a $1.95 trillion valuation. Google was at about $550 billion in 2016 and $350 billion in 2010. Google could be at $3.5 trillion in 2026 and $12 trillion in 2031.

Amazon has $1.74 trillion valuation. Amazon has grown valuation by 4X-6X over each of the past 5 year periods. Two 4X valuation increases would put Amazon at $7 trillion in 2026 and $14-28 trillion in 2031.

Tesla has a valuation of $1.07 trillion. Tesla has grown 31X and 11X in each of the prior 5 year periods. Two 11X valuation increases would put Tesla at $12 trillion in 2026 and $60-132 trillion in 2031.

Bitcoin went from $7 billion in capitalization in 2016 to around $1 trillion today. Bitcoin was worth about $100 million in 2012. A 130X valuation increase would put bitcoin at $130 trillion in 2026-2028.

Microstrategy CEO has talked about Bitcoin becoming a $100 trillion asset class. He says, at the end of the decade bitcoin will have flipped gold, and then it will flip monetary indexes, a little bit of bonds, a little bit of real estate, a little bit of equity, and emerge as a $100 trillion asset class. It will be 5% to 7% of the worldwide economy. The U.S. dollar will probably replace 150 currencies. Maybe there will only be 2 to 3 left. There might be the euro, the CNY, and the dollar. Everything else is probably going to disappear. And then bitcoin will be the world’s monetary index.

Ethereum went from $1 billion in 2016 to about $488 billion today. A 400X valuation increase would put Ethereum at $200 trillion in 2026-2028. Ethereum reaching this level would also require it to be part of a world crypto exchange and decentralized finance system.

SpaceX was worth about $15 billion in 2016 and is worth over $100 billion today. SpaceX is still private and going public with Starlink should provide a 3-5X valuation increase. A 3X going public valuation increase and another 6.5X five-year valuation increase would put SpaceX at $2 trillion in 2026 and at $13 trillion in 2031.

For these valuations to be realized then each of the companies or cryptos would have to successfully execute on almost all of their plans.

Apple would have to continue improving smartphones, devices, applications and software and create new markets with Augmented reality.

Amazon and Microsoft would be doing next-generation things with cloud computing.

Tesla would be dominating electric vehicles, energy storage, self-driving robotaxis and Teslabots.

SpaceX would dominate cargo delivery around the world, displace intercontinental airplanes and dominate communication with Starlink.

A Boeing 767-300 in cargo configuration can move 56 tons of cargo and costs $220 million. The range is up to 3,765 nautical miles and the speed is 530 miles per hour. A Mass-produced SpaceX Starship will have 80-120 tons of cargo capacity and cost $5-20 million each. The range is up to 7000 nautical miles and speed will be up to 20,000 miles per hour.

SpaceX started launching v1.5 Starlink satellites with laser communication that will reduce latency to about 10-20 milliseconds versus 17 milliseconds for fiber. Space laser communication is 40% faster because of light speed in vacuum vs fiber. Anything over 3000 miles has less latency via Starlink. SpaceX will put up Gen2 satellite network with satellites 850-1000 kilogram with up to 80 gbps capacity per satellite versus 18 gbps in current version 1. ~30,000 satellite Starlink Gen2 constellation as proposed would have a total instantaneous bandwidth of at least 500 terabits per second (Tbps) over land (~1800 Tbps including ocean coverage). As of 2020, the total installed bandwidth of global internet infrastructure was estimated to be 600 Tbps.

Gen3 SpaceX satellites could compete for all Earth-based communication.

1 thought on “Another Decade of Tesla, SpaceX, Cryptocurrency, Apple Domination”

  1. I disagree: The Apple management is still much the same, the apple engineering groups are pretty similar with many of the same leading members, the apple marketing groups likewise.

    The markets that Apple sells into also haven't changed that much, with most of the same people responding to a brand message that has stayed much the same. And the investing market, likewise, consists of much the same people responding to much the same motivations.

    So it's not unrelated at all that Apple products should continue to come out with similar appeal to previous generations. And that sales and profits should continue to grow as before. And that this would result in a similar share market reaction.

    It's not guaranteed. We saw in the 1990s how exactly this corporation can go off the rails and have products, sales, profits and thence share price all collapse.

    But to claim there is no relation at all is to ignore that this is mostly the same people doing the same things and expecting the same reaction from other groups that are also the same people as before.

    Now Bitcoin. THAT's constantly pushing into completely uncharted territory.

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