India’s Population Could Peak Within 15 Years

India’s national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level for the first time. India’s national Total Fertility Rate has dropped 1.6 in cities and to 2.1 in rural areas. The TFR was found to be 2.2 in the NFHS 2015-16 survey and 2.7 in the NFHS 2005-06 survey.

Five states in India currently have TFR higher than 2 : Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3) and Manipur (2.2).

A Total Fertility Rate lower than 2.1 is not enough children to replace itself.

India was adding over 18 million people per year in 2005 but in 2020 this dropped to adding 13 million. A persistent lower fertility could see the population peak around 2035 to 2040 instead of after 2050 in older projections.

India has about 1.4 billion people now but a sharp and steady decline from adding 13 million people in 2020 to less and less each year could mean India will peak with about 1.5 billion people by around 2035 instead of over 1.6 billion after 2050.

SOURCES- India Today, NFHS
Written By Brian Wang,