Projection that 50% of Americans Will Get Omicron Covid in Next 100 Days

The Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) is projecting that Omicron Covid cases in the USA will peak at around 2.8 million cases per day and that there are currently about 1.5 million cases per day in the USA. They are projecting it will be over 1.5 million cases per day for the next 60 days and then about 20 days to get below 1 million cases per day. This would be about 60 days on average about 2 million cases per day for 120 million cases and then another 25 million cases for the next 20 days and then another 15 million cases for another 20 days. This would be about 160 million mainly Omicron COVID cases for the next 100 days. This would be 50% of Americans. All of their scenarios show this rough path except for a scenario where most people started using masks all the time and wearing good and effective masks and using them regularly.

Globally, IHME, is projecting daily Covid (omicron) cases to peak at around 40 million cases per day. This would mean over 2 billion cases globally over the next 100 days.

The tested and confirmed cases will be far lower. Currently, Worldometers is reporting that US daily cases are about 600,000 per day and Global cases are about 2 million per day. The IHME projection of cases is 2-3 times higher for the USA and 12 times higher for the global daily numbers. Worldometers will likely record a peak of about 1 million daily cases for the USA and 3-4 million daily cases for the world. The peak in daily cases should be about end of January or beginning of February.

Mask usage was generally ineffective. Masks that are effective for reducing transmission are surgical-grade masks, N95 or KN95 masks or better and must be worn and handled properly to be useful.

Mask usage has dropped to about 35% in the USA. This is based upon asking people if they wear masks all the time. The US peak of claimed mask usage was about 70%. The Institute for Health Metrics projects that the Omicron wave might only hit 25% of the US population if the vast majority of US people got more religious about masks than at the peak of mask usage at the start of 2021.

Omicron is milder than prior variants of COVID. Omicron could be viewed as a natural way to get more immunity.

It is clear that Americans as a whole will not move to effectively counter and it is not clear that they should unless they are in populations with particular vulnerability to a severe illness from COVID.

The Institute for Health Metrics (University of Washington) has been tracking pandemic data and projecting the disease for the past two years.

Written by Brian Wang,

78 thoughts on “Projection that 50% of Americans Will Get Omicron Covid in Next 100 Days”

  1. The cheating husband of a hospital doctor. He loves the cash his wife is bringing in and he loves that she is spending more hours on the job. Go omicron!

  2. And yet somehow I quoted the two main sentences from the link without changing a word. Color me shocked that a Reuters "Fact Check" would be logically inconsistent with itself.

  3. Technically we always have been experiencing pandemics every year after year. But they are (mostly) super mild, we just get a case of the sniffles or a cough or something, and nobody cares.

    Our hope is that covid will turn into just another one of these. The omicron version is apparently on its way to being such, but not far enough for medical authorities to signal the All Clear.

    Of course, some people will argue that it IS safe now, and the medical authorities are faking the severity on behalf of Uber Eats or to sell you mind-control paper masks or something.

  4. Your link explicitly states that Rick C is correct and that immune systems are not damaged by vaccines.

    Your first sentence is completely wrong (based on your own link).

  5. It does if your boosters aren't current:

    The VE dropped significantly for the last time bracket – those who tested positive for Omicron or Delta variant and received their second COVID-19 vaccine 91 to 150 days previously.

    VE against Omicron was -76.5% (2,851 cases) and 53.8% against Delta (34,947 cases) after the second Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine dose with VE against Omicron at -39.3% (393 cases) and 65.0% (3,459 cases) following second Moderna vaccine.


  6. Don't you understand? If something is not 100% perfect then it is useless.
    Next on the list are those total scams seatbelts and ABS brakes. Turns out people are still dying in car crashes, so we'll go back to drum brakes, grab handles and solid steering columns.

  7. since English isn't my first language – I'm Portuguese – there are lots of plays on words that I miss…

  8. That is interesting. So basically we are experiencing a completely new and separate pandemic. Hopefully we don't continue to see new and separate pandemics year after year. Like you mention it's nice this variant and previous exposure seem to have better outcomes.

  9. Still sounds a lot better than my own personal experience with Moderna shot #2.

    I shed quarter sized patches of skin for 5 months and am still losing dime sized clumps of scalp along with hair.

  10. That's been my experience, since I turned 60. Most people have their immune systems declining about this age, and start having a much harder time beating back infections.

  11. I know those words, but thought they were somewhat inadequate in the context. Anyway, I'm feeling much better now, but the pain I experienced two days ago was quite excruciating, like nothing I've had before. Or maybe I'm really old now and viruses, infections, whatever, are much more difficult to overcome now…

  12. Yeah. Just ignore all the deaths from suicides, delayed hospital procedures, undiagnosed cancers etc. Never mind the horrendous economic, social and health costs of lockdowns and mandates like job loss-fuelled poverty, social isolation, arrested child development. 

    The fact of the matter is for the majority of people who died from Covid (not WITH it but FROM it) were already close to death's door, either from old age or severe ill health. Covid brought forward their inevitable deaths by a few months or a year. These deaths were not "avoidable". 

    Funnily enough, deaths from the regular flu have plummeted. Oh, did you know this? The regular flu kills (or killed) tens of thousands worldwide every year, mostly those who have now died from Covid instead i.e. the elderly and unhealthy? Those deaths were "avoidable" too but you just DGAF?

  13. The vaccines have a statistically measurable effect on the infection fatality rate, reducing it several times. Same for the omicron variant.

    It's still a good deal to get then.

  14. Hoping for a quick blow thru of this latest mutation. Some British scientist had some hope it burn itself out.

  15. Yes, 50% will get it, and 99.9 % will have very mild symptoms. And then, 50% will be immune. And non-CDC immunology experts are reporting that immunity to Covid in most cases is for life. The CCP/Fauci bug is nearly out of places to go. We're moving on soon. Someone tell the control freaks in our government to back off. And by the way, we will not vaccinate our children. They've all had Delta and got over it, and now have immunity.

  16. The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling.
    The new report (Report 49) from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.

  17. who cares anymore? stay home if you are that much a baby… this virus is over and has mutated to be nothing more than the cold. we dont count cold and flu cases anymore do we? so stop with the rest of it, amazing also how the whole get vaxxed and you will be fine is out the window. no one believes or trust the medical "experts " anymore and for good reason

  18. I prefer to go out, not wear a mask, not social distance, not wash my hands unless I poo, and if I get infected I hide it like I'm the extra in a zombie movie.

  19. If US reported cases get over 100 million or so, that's pretty much proof positive that the vaccines are destroying people's immune systems and opening them up to reinfection.

  20. With all the inroads we have made into the natural world, the many wet markets and exotic animal trafficking still around, joined with the quick airflight times across the planet, all of humanity will be quickly exposed to whatever nasty bug crawls out of some god forsaken place.

    And don't forget people researching such nasty crawlies "for science", which should be much more carefully watched since now on.

    Except there are places where nobody so far can, like, well, China.

  21. Given my druthers I'd prefer to just go hiking and camping. Every bit as good of isolation as hiding in your house, and better air exchange.

  22. I've had both cancer (Twice!) and covid. Can't say either of them scare me, as such, though I'd very much rather not go through either again.

    But Alzheimers? Yeah, that scares me silly. It's like dying before you're dead, "YOU" are long dead before your body stops moving.

  23. "Mucus", technically, or "snot", colloquially.

    But what he likely meant is that it probably wasn't Covid, based on the symptoms you were describing.

  24. This is the first serious step of the virus in moving from pandemic to endemic. However, We will be living with viruses in ways we haven't been brfore.

  25. thanks, I'm already feeling better. honestly, I'm not afraid of covid. I'm terrified of cancer, alzheimers, not covid.

  26. Ok. I didn't take any test and I'm not vaccinated either. I just assumed it's covid, since it's a lot more severe than any cold I've ever had and I'm almost 60.

  27. No way it runs out of people in 2-3 weeks unless the vast majority of cases have little to no side effects. If you can hit "herd immunity" that quickly then it is a trivial virus. (spoiler: it is largely a trivial virus)

  28. Its never too late for the media to blame Trump. "If only he had taken this seriously while we were pushing for his impeachment…"

  29. Well, more people have died under Biden than Trump even though we have had an entire year of medical and epidemiology advancements regarding COVID, large scale vaccination and dramatically increases in herd immunity.

  30. I had Covid last February, no particular drainage, just a horrible head cold for a couple of days.

    What you're describing sounds like something my whole family went through over the last couple of weeks, and after more nasal swabs than I like to think about, it was confirmed that it wasn't any variant of Covid or influenza, or anything else they could put a name to. The urgent care was packed with people getting it.

    Apparently the other viruses of the world didn't go into retirement just because Covid was around.

  31. Too little and too late. My county in Georgia went to remote learning this week, but the infection rate has already jumped 22x the low point. I stopped leaving the house in mid-Dec and am just waiting it out.

  32. Experience from South Africa shows 3 weeks from start of surge to peak, and now two weeks later they are down 2/3 from the peak. The US is two weeks into our surge.

    Omicron spreads *really* fast and then runs out of people to infect. Georgia's Dept of Public Health has already maxed out on reporting cases. They posted yesterday they are backlogged. So that 'maxed out' you mentioned is already happening. Based on S.A. we should be heading to lower numbers by the end of this month. The true total of infections won't be known until sometime later when they do population surveys for antibodies.

  33. 1. Production has more than caught up. There’s a pandemic going on, which triggered a boost in mask production. The issue of fake masks is well known and certain vendors now vet sellers.
    2. An interview I watched today with an infectious disease specialist suggested you can use an N95 about a dozen times if you take care of it. Figuring not everyone goes out everyday anyway our current manufactured inventory should easy suffice.

  34. One thing I've learned in this pandemic is how many apparent adults are somehow psychologically unable to deal with not visiting a bar or restaurant multiple times per week.
    I'll admit I was blind sided by the large number of people who have serious addiction.

  35. Or,
    If you go out, wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands, and if you get infected, stay home until you test negative.

  36. I have been for all measures possible, but now I believe the best way forward is to simply go about our lives. We have had ample opportunity to be vaccinated, and this variant is milder than others. Might as well bite the bullet, and move on past this, and get back to our lives. I have had both shots, and was ready to take the booster when I caught covid (likely Delta)… Yes, protect the vulnerable, but it's time to get our herd immunity and move on…If 50% of those uninfected get covid now, then about 75% will have natural immunity. Add in those who are being vaccinated, and we will have near 90% immunity (rough calculations, I know). This should put covid at a very low level for quite a while…It's obvious that we can't (currently) beat this thing. Might as well join it.

  37. I think I got it right now, congested nose, mild cough, lots of nasal excretions and the worst: pain all over the body, especially excruciating in the lower back. it's been like that for 4 days, can't wait for it to end…

  38. Masking reduces the number of viral particles you inhale. An N95 mask should be OK for a while indoors. But it's best to keep those visits indoors to a minimum time-wise. Try not to eat or drink in a restaurant or bar for the next two months.

  39. Is exponential growth a foreign concept? The Omicron infection is an exponential growth infection. It will grow exponentially until it has problems finding new victims. It will never have a steady-state infection rate. It's either up or down. If you see a steady-state infection rate that is due to maxing out testing. What will happen is this. It will blow up for the next few weeks until people become scared and stay home. Then the growth in infections might slow down. But infection won't start to fall until Omicron has trouble finding new victims. So right now my guess is that the peak happens at the end of January to the middle of February. And it will mostly be over by the end of March to the middle of April.

  40. Better than staying the hell home is building a hellish moat around your hellish castle so nobody can interrupt your daily ritual of quadruple masking.

  41. No discussion if there are enough N95/KN95 masks available for the US population, even if we wanted to. Anecdotally, there were a number of masks sold claiming to be N95/KN95 early in the pandemic which turned out not to actually meet the standards.

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