Projection that 50% of Americans Will Get Omicron Covid in Next 100 Days

The Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) is projecting that Omicron Covid cases in the USA will peak at around 2.8 million cases per day and that there are currently about 1.5 million cases per day in the USA. They are projecting it will be over 1.5 million cases per day for the next 60 days and then about 20 days to get below 1 million cases per day. This would be about 60 days on average about 2 million cases per day for 120 million cases and then another 25 million cases for the next 20 days and then another 15 million cases for another 20 days. This would be about 160 million mainly Omicron COVID cases for the next 100 days. This would be 50% of Americans. All of their scenarios show this rough path except for a scenario where most people started using masks all the time and wearing good and effective masks and using them regularly.

Globally, IHME, is projecting daily Covid (omicron) cases to peak at around 40 million cases per day. This would mean over 2 billion cases globally over the next 100 days.

The tested and confirmed cases will be far lower. Currently, Worldometers is reporting that US daily cases are about 600,000 per day and Global cases are about 2 million per day. The IHME projection of cases is 2-3 times higher for the USA and 12 times higher for the global daily numbers. Worldometers will likely record a peak of about 1 million daily cases for the USA and 3-4 million daily cases for the world. The peak in daily cases should be about end of January or beginning of February.

Mask usage was generally ineffective. Masks that are effective for reducing transmission are surgical-grade masks, N95 or KN95 masks or better and must be worn and handled properly to be useful.

Mask usage has dropped to about 35% in the USA. This is based upon asking people if they wear masks all the time. The US peak of claimed mask usage was about 70%. The Institute for Health Metrics projects that the Omicron wave might only hit 25% of the US population if the vast majority of US people got more religious about masks than at the peak of mask usage at the start of 2021.

Omicron is milder than prior variants of COVID. Omicron could be viewed as a natural way to get more immunity.

It is clear that Americans as a whole will not move to effectively counter and it is not clear that they should unless they are in populations with particular vulnerability to a severe illness from COVID.

The Institute for Health Metrics (University of Washington) has been tracking pandemic data and projecting the disease for the past two years.

Written by Brian Wang,

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