Minimum Tesla FSD Financial Impacts in 2022

Tesla just reported that there are 60,000 FSD beta users. This means increasing the beta release by five times and all Tesla US FSD customers are served.

The US has about 300,000 Tesla FSD customers. People who have paid for FSD ($4000 to $12000) but so far do not use it (other than beta customers which is now 20% or so of FSD prepayers). Worldwide there are probably another 100,000 FSD beta customers. They will need to further localize each FSD like for Canadian winters by next year.

This 20% of Tesla US FSD customers already using FSD beta means a US general release in Q2 or earlier in on track. Only half of the prepaid $3 billion in US FSD revenue (all FSD revenue up to Q2 2022) gets recognized. General release of FSD means that accounting wise all of the revenue gets recognized. Future prices will either go up to $14,000 or $20000 or only monthly purchases can be made going forward.

All deferred FSD revenue gets recognized with general US release and as other countries get general release their FSD revenue gets recognized. Tesla will recognize an all profit $1.5 billion in Q2 2022. Beyond Q2 all FSD sales get full FSD revenue recognized right away. They will have FSD driving highway and cities.

300,000+ cars per quarter in US with 20-40% attachment with FSD at $14000 per sale or with $200 per month. 60k-120k FSD sales per quarter with full FSD revenue. Ballpark it at 100,000 FSD sales. This would be $1.4 billion instead of $150M in 2021. There were fewer cars as Tesla is doubling every year and 10% FSD adoption before and half revenue recognition. This would be about $1 billion per quarter more from Q3 2022 onwards and growing and $1.5 billion in recognized profit in Q2.

Tesla had 2.2 billion in GAAP net income in Q4 2021.

SOURCES- Tesla and Brian’s calculations
Written by Brian Wang