Minimum Tesla FSD Financial Impacts in 2022

Tesla just reported that there are 60,000 FSD beta users. This means increasing the beta release by five times and all Tesla US FSD customers are served.

The US has about 300,000 Tesla FSD customers. People who have paid for FSD ($4000 to $12000) but so far do not use it (other than beta customers which is now 20% or so of FSD prepayers). Worldwide there are probably another 100,000 FSD beta customers. They will need to further localize each FSD like for Canadian winters by next year.

This 20% of Tesla US FSD customers already using FSD beta means a US general release in Q2 or earlier in on track. Only half of the prepaid $3 billion in US FSD revenue (all FSD revenue up to Q2 2022) gets recognized. General release of FSD means that accounting wise all of the revenue gets recognized. Future prices will either go up to $14,000 or $20000 or only monthly purchases can be made going forward.

All deferred FSD revenue gets recognized with general US release and as other countries get general release their FSD revenue gets recognized. Tesla will recognize an all profit $1.5 billion in Q2 2022. Beyond Q2 all FSD sales get full FSD revenue recognized right away. They will have FSD driving highway and cities.

300,000+ cars per quarter in US with 20-40% attachment with FSD at $14000 per sale or with $200 per month. 60k-120k FSD sales per quarter with full FSD revenue. Ballpark it at 100,000 FSD sales. This would be $1.4 billion instead of $150M in 2021. There were fewer cars as Tesla is doubling every year and 10% FSD adoption before and half revenue recognition. This would be about $1 billion per quarter more from Q3 2022 onwards and growing and $1.5 billion in recognized profit in Q2.

Tesla had 2.2 billion in GAAP net income in Q4 2021.

SOURCES- Tesla and Brian’s calculations
Written by Brian Wang

22 thoughts on “Minimum Tesla FSD Financial Impacts in 2022”

  1. Oh yeah, before you buy a Tesla, check the cost of insuring it. Two arms, and a leg! Maybe it's safe, but repairing it, and providing a rental while waiting months for parts cut into insurance profits.

  2. I will point out that Teslas are not the only car on the market that just doesn't provide you with a spare tyre or other necessary roadside tools.
    Saves a few $100 in production.
    AND you don't need to design in a spare tyre and tool kit storage location which means you can boast about your larger storage space.
    AND you save a bit of weight.
    On a pristine corporate test track there are no roofing screws or jagged bits of metal left laying around, so the new car never gets a flat tyre. We have proof!
    Driving over a sharp object is improper use, recommended against in the user manual. So we don't need to worry about that.

  3. That was already done. Liars are persecuted in some instances if you dont know that. People who need to mock others to lift their own self esteem – psychopats rarely.

  4. More importantly, Musk has a track record of mostly delivering on his forward looking promises, even though they might be delayed from the deadline he set for himself. Not many leaders can pull that off consistently.

  5. This is a feature,not a bug. As Tesla's become inoperable they will have to be replaced, creating demand,as long as Tesla is the world's only auto maker there shouldn't be a problem. Assuming from the stock price this is true we should start to see car companies going belly up.

  6. There is nothing to compare with Germany closing reactors, there is not one anti nuclear environmentalist on the planet.

  7. Based on content from "Rich rebuilds" of youtube fame, Tesla has bigger problems than FSD. Apparently, repair parts for Tesla's are sometimes unavailabe at any price, because they are all going to production, rather than supporting warranty bearing vehicles already in the field. This, with no loaner cars available.

    I'm now glad Tesla declined to finance a car, despite my >1200 credit rating. Their reasoning? I had never purchased such an expensive car in the past!

    If anyone other than fanboys will ever own Tesla's, customer service/relations must improve. I guess this is what happens when a software company tries to make real world consumer products!

    Then there is the fact Tesla assumes it's customers are mentally/physically incompetent to change a tire, since a spare wheel, and jack don't come with a car. I guess soy boys can't possibly imagine changing their own wheel, after a tire goes flat. That's for the plebeians. I changed one on the side of the interstate in less than ten minutes recently, despite being diabetic, and in my 60s. It's a 50 mile drive to the local Tesla store/service center. How long would I have waited for a Tesla "service" call on the side of I-85?

  8. Congrats to Tesla. One very large bottleneck is German goverment and so called "Enviromental groups"(false environmentalists), which are probably paid by competition to slow down Tesla. Tesla should sue them, because they are damaging the company with nonsical claims,…

  9. No,Elon proclaims you have fsd, you just have to drive carefully with your hands on the wheel and your eyes on the road, the car makes money for you just like a robo taxis, you drive for uber.

  10. Now full self driving is only a Tesla term and means it is not full self driving ,the new term is autonomous operation, and all the responsible companies actually working on autonomous operation where there is no steering wheel are part of that organization.
    Tesla cars are not robo taxis Tesla owners do not sleep where their cars are out making money for them,Waymo Cruise Zook and others are the companies to watch.

  11. Although I have argued with you around Tesla a number of times on this I agree .. Mr Musk has said this to many times to believed on his word alone, it will be done when its seen in action on the roads and unfortunately on this you can`t trust his word as he has been wrong so many times before.

  12. The greatest risk, as I see it, is that full FSD would require an order of magnitude or more computations than what FSD computer 3.0 can deliver. Say you need at least 720 Terra-ops (and another 720 Terra-ops for redundancy) to make it happen.

    Then Tesla would have to retrofit all FSD equiped cars with the new computer. By the time Tesla discovers this fact there might a million or more FSD cars on the road, meaning a need to replace 1 million computers at a cost of 2000 USD each, i.e. 2 billion dollars on a one time hit.

    This would of course be rather small potatoes on the scale of Teslas income and revenue, but it would shake the confidence in Tesla delivering what they set out to do with the HW that they provide.

  13. Great summary of the detailed effect of the FSD end game on Tesla financials which just came into focus. The first big wave of financial impacts come before Tesla Network simply from recognition of differed revenue, higher prices for FSD, higher sell- through rates.

    It’s interesting that this is hitting with FSD in the trough of disillusionment of the Hype cycle. There will be lot’s of skepticism and cynicism making long predicted results seem shocking to analysts.

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