Tesla 2022 Car Production Could Beat Analyst Estimates for 2024 or 2025

Tesla just announced car deliveries for the fourth quarter (October, November, December) 2021 and they were 308000 cars. This beat wall street analyst expectations of 267,000 and the whisper number of 280,000. The 308000 cars was 28% more than what Tesla delivered in the prior three months in Q3. Q3 2021 had 241000 cars.

The consensus Tesla forecasts for all wall street analysts for 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 as of yesterday are as follows:

2022E 1.297 million
2023E 1.67 million
2024E 2.09 million
2025E 2.59 million
2026E 3.65 million

Tesla produced about 306000 cars in Q4 2021. Tesla probably made 177,000 cars in Shanghai and 128000 cars in Fremont. There were some numbers released for Tesla China production for October and November.

It looks like 70,000 cars were made in China in December and 46,000 cars in Fremont in December. This means annualizing the December 2021 production runrate would be 1.39 million cars. This annualized runrate is already well over analyst estimates for 2022 of less than 1.3 million.

Tesla China is still ramping. It looks like certain capacity limitations have been surpassed in Fremont. Fremont is growing production and Tesla has stated they want to increase capacity by a stated 50% in Fremont. Fremont is now growing production. Tesla has been sandbagging numbers for over a year now. They are underpromising and overdelivering. Tesla has understated China production and now appears to be understanding expansion plan targets and rate of production rate increases. Tesla is spending $188 million to increase China production capacity by 50%.

Tesla China likely already has an annualized production of 840,000 cars per year. Fremont annualized is at 552,000 cars per year. Peak production capacity for China is already over 1 million cars at 1.1 million. The capacity expansions are likely 75-80% targets. Tesla talked about 50% annual growth but 2021 was 87% growth.

Tesla Texas should start production later this week and Tesla Berlin should finally be permitted to start by the end of this month.

Tesla cars are backordered for over six months. This means there should be no first-quarter drop off in deliveries. Cars have been presold for two quarters.

China and Europe are well over 10% EV market share and this is growing rapidly. Instead of 5 million global EV demand for 2021 this will likely be 10-12 million EVs demand for 2022. Surpassing 10% EV adoption moves regions into the sharp rise in the S-curve of adoption. A sharper and faster rise in demand can only be met by EV companies that have factories already built and with the capital to further increase production capacity at high speed.

Tesla needs batteries, chips and production execution. The demand will be there to buy the cars that are made.
Tesla China 2022 1.2M-1.4M
Tesla Fremont 2022 600k-800k
Tesla Texas 2022 150k-400k
Tesla Berlin 2022 100k-350k
Tesla 2022 2.05M- 2.95M

Tesla Q1 2022 380k-500k [420k]
Tesla Q2 2022 470k-600k [530k]
Tesla Q3 2022 550k-850k [700k]
Tesla Q4 2022 650k-1000k [800k]
Tesla 2022 2.05M-2.95M [2.45M]

I think CATL will deliver a lot of batteries to Tesla and Tesla will start getting significant 4680 batteries late in Q2 2022.

Tesla with over 2.1 million cars beats current analyst estimates for 2024 and getting over 2.6 million cars beats analyst estimates for 2025.

Extra 200k cars per year works out to an extra $200 per share. Tesla should end 2022 with a stock price in the $2000-3000 range. The stock price will be even higher if the full self-driving software makes reaches level 4 autonomy.

SOURCES- Tesla Daily, Tesla, Bloomberg Terminal
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)

7 thoughts on “Tesla 2022 Car Production Could Beat Analyst Estimates for 2024 or 2025”

  1. To add to your point. Q4 probably means about 3 USD profit per stock and if we anualize that number, we get a PE ratio of about 100.

    Not unreasonable for a company that grows almost 100% per year…

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  2. Growth companies like Tesla should be valued based on how much revenue they will make in the future, five or ten years from now, not how much they make today. For example, if you were going to buy a property, would you rather buy A) a property with plenty of untapped natural resources (gold) that could be mined in the future, or B) a property that had a lot of untapped natural resources in the past, but has been mostly depleted (legacy car makers).

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  3. Not sure you are right about this. Why build new factories of you can scale existing ones instead? Giga Texas 5 million, giga Berlin 2 million, Shanghai 3 million, Freemont 1 million.. That's enough for 2026 already..?

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  4. Of course another very likely series of announcements that will add to this growth story is the next round of Gigafactory build locations. Part of the underpromise and overdeliver has been to quiet speculation about next steps until current plans have been achieved. 2022 will likely see 4 new gigafactory projects announced – along with expansion and improvement of existing GFs.

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  5. Well, perhaps 2 million would be possible, if both Freemont and Shanghai produce 25% more next year compared to december production numbers on average. I don't expext neither Texas nor Berlin to ramp faster than each 150k the first year. Ramping is tricky, but I would love to be wrong.

    Also note that the environmental organization Nabu is fighting Tesla tooth and nail in Germany, so expect delays in ramping due to their "environmentalism". For Texas ramping will be easier, but they still have to figure out how to ramp the supply chain. Meaning that no matter how good Tesla is, ramping cannot be faster than the sub-suppliers ramping

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