Statistics Korea reported a 0.18% on-year to 51.7 million at the end of 2021. In 2020, Statistics Korea projected this drop in population would start in 2029.
The number of expected babies per South Korean woman is poised to drop to the lowest level of 0.82, versus the previous record low of 0.84 recorded in 2020, which was also the world’s lowest for the year. In 2021, the number of babies born is forecast at 261,000, compared with last year’s 275,000.
People might say, well a shrinking population is no big deal. The South Korean projection (without antiaging technology) is that the median age of people in South Korea in 2070 will have increased from 44 to 62. Half of the people would be near the current retirement age or older. This will happen in Taiwan, Japan, and other Asian and European countries. The current retirement age in South Korea is 60.
Even if the number of babies is suppressed for 2-4 years because of the pandemic and their is a fertility rate recovery by 20%, the base of women in prime childbearing age is constantly dropping in Asian and European countries.
About 60-70% of women in Asia have babies when they are in their twenties. They are three times less likely to have babies in their thirties. They are 13 times less likely to have babies in their teens or past the age of forty.
The population pyramids show that the number of women in their twenties is dropping by 30-50% and are heading towards half in about 10-15 years. This can be seen by the number of women who are age 30 this year and are aging out into 31 versus how many are 19 and aging into the prime childbearing twenties.
Any change in attitude for the next generation to have kids at a higher rate would have to overcome the fact that there would be 50% to eventually 100% fewer women in their twenties.
In South Korea, women at each year from 30 to 40 is 300,000 to 375000 but those now 20-29 are 263,000 to 326,000 and those 10-19 are 222,000 to 245000 and in those 1 to 9 the numbers drop to 156000 to 220000.
The drop in half is happening in Taiwan. The number of females who are age 39 is 200,000 but the number of females at any age year under 16 is 90000 to 105000.
This drop can only be reversed with a massive generational shift towards having large families and huge pro-family policies or new technology that vastly improves fertility treatment effectiveness and availability. The population drop can also be slowed and possibly reversed if there is aging reversal technology success.
SOURCES- World Population Review, Ked Global
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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