Own the Future by Owning Tesla and SpaceX

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Ark Invest manages tens of billions in investment funds that are focused on capturing the innovative companies that will be successful in the future. Ark Invest categorizes innovation companies of 2022 with a total market cap of $14 trillion and this will grow to $210 trillion in 2030. Tesla is about $1 trillion of the 2022 market cap, SpaceX is $100 billion, Neuralink and Boring Company are about $10 billion. Tesla and SpaceX could end up dominating $100 trillion out of the total $210 trillion of the Ark Invest forecasted $210 trillion total value of all 2030 innovation companies combined.

Elon Musk companies are about 8% of the current innovation market cap and they will be a major part of 6 out of 14 major innovation segments identified by Ark Invest Big Ideas 2022.

There is a significant chance that the billions available for research and investment at Elon Musk companies and the lead they have in several major categories (Reusable rocket, autonomous mobility, electric vehicles, batteries) will enable them to capture most of the market cap and profits in the future of 2030. Ark Invest estimates those innovation companies will total $210 trillion in market capitalization.

The most valuable areas according to Ark Invest forecasts will be AI ($108T), Blockchain ($49T), Batteries ($32T), Robotics ($10T).

If Tesla succeeds with a winner take all or winner take most of the robotaxis and electric cars and then leverages that windfall and that technology to also dominate with the Teslabot then Tesla will own the future. Those who own Tesla with shares will have a share of owning the future. It would be like people of the 1880s getting in on owning Standard Oil or the other major industrial age industries.

Tesla is in AI and Robotics with self driving, robotaxi and Teslabot. Reusable rockets is SpaceX and is forecasted as part of Robotics. Ark forecasts reusable rockets to be $500B. However, the biggest part of SpaceX valuation will be using Starlink and low earth orbit satellites to potentially dominate internet and all other communication.

Tesla is of course in Batteries and electric cars.

If Tesla dominates energy storage and has significant solar power market share and those industries merge and become a big part of blockchain via blockchain mining, then there is a backdoor for Tesla to become significant with future Blockchain value.

20 thoughts on “Own the Future by Owning Tesla and SpaceX”

  2. I only buy and sell about 20-25% of my portfolio myself and I don't have any Tesla. But the rest is in various funds and I notice they all seem to allocate about 4% to Tesla.

  3. I think Elon Musk has read Heinlein's The Man Who Sold the Moon and has no desire to be the man who has to sell off his vision (and control of it) just to keep it alive. Shareholders would demand a focus on profits, perhaps even short-term profits, rather than on achieving what he has envisioned.

  5. In the end, he will stop due to old age, or should I say, older age. And when he does quit, it will be a fantastic relief for the rest of us. It's like someone constantly littering a public park, year on and year in…

    In addition, I would also like to know his social situation. Does he uphold a work? Does he have a family? Does he live alone?

  6. Does anyone know what the charting tool used for the initial graph was (the circle with an inner graph)?

  7. I am very uneasy about any talk of SpaceX as if it is or soon will be a publicly traded company, which this article seems to do. If SpaceX becomes public, Elon will lose control of where it puts its energy, the company's efforts will get diverted to shorter term projects, and the Mars colonization project will never get done. Dan Lantz probably would think that would be a good result, but I strongly disagree. Resist the notion that SpaceX will or should become a publicly traded company!!

  9. "If Tesla dominates energy storage and has significant solar power market
    share and those industries merge and become a big part of blockchain
    via blockchain mining," First, I'm not the expert on blockchain. I think it is used for far more than bitcoin and such, so may have value beyond that. However, the notion that someone who hates Space Solar and, thus one assumes, Earth to Earth Power Beaming, and thinks H is for "foolcells" will dominate the energy and storage market is fanboy thinking. On energy, I AM the expert.

  11. I am not pestering anyone in particular, but see no other way. So,you should find a way to that greatly desired result without the problem I have, and teach me how. I will be an eager student. Very important, no? I have made this challenge before, esp with Janov, but the people later have had to admit I was right, most will NOT listen.

    edit: something I have tried for years, since '90, is to get NSS to list Criswell LSP as a reference for the topic of Space Solar Power, but they are all Mankins. Try that for a test. Hope you succeed! Start with the NSSO paper, which talks of LSP but does not cite Criswell. To be fair, this was before the 2009 Criswell pub, and the prior "Beijing" pub was terrible.

  13. You got me to read the Criswell paper and High Frontier. And though I do believe O'Niell is better than Mars, your pestering can be very annoying

  14. Actually, it goes back to a SMI2LE lecture in 1977. Long before the web. I got the "renegade group of engineers" at NASA who wanted to go back to the Moon, for Mars, kicked into gear in ~90. I got the NSSO to include LSP in their report ~2005. Now, I am pushing Earth to Earth power beaming, really big deal. Criswell LSP ppg 12-13. Learned of the excess power that intermittent sources have only a few months ago. "What we are doing today would have been stupid five years ago — when electricity was more expensive, you'd never dream of doing this," -John O'Donnell, the CEO at Rondo Energy. Do you find any flaws in my "same bizarre techno-liturgy" arguments? edit: "The Earth moves."

  15. Can you post a picture of yourself? I am fascinated to know what someone looks like who can incessantly insert the same bizarre techno-liturgy into any topic or conversation or abstract article for literally years on end, day in/ day out.
    Your posted on medium.com, 5 years ago, and variously on spacesolarpower.wordpress.com almost 15 years go.. and the comment posts go on for almost 20 years on various blogs and webpages according to Google.
    I am guessing:
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0701115/

  19. Looks like Mars is no longer in the future economically. Are people understanding Gerard K. O'Neill "The High Frontier"? Is Space in the future? Is micr0g? Yep.

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