UK, Denmark and South Africa Provide a View of Possible US COVID Future

South Africa, Denmark and the UK were all ahead of the USA in their Omicron BA.1 waves and are now ahead of the US with Omicron BA.2.

Denmark and the UK have populations that are more vaccinated than Americans. South Africa has lower vaccination levels.

The UK demographics in terms of obesity and age is a closer match to the USA.

Omicron BA.1 sends the detected daily cases up higher. Omicron BA.2 is less detectable for certain COVID tests and is not treatable by certain monoclonal drugs.

South Africa is over 65% Omicron BA.2 and the US is at 3.9% Omicron BA.2.

South Africa, Denmark and UK are at higher levels of daily COVID death rates now then when they had the Omicron BA.1 wave of cases.

COVID Omicron daily cases in South Africa peaked Dec 15, 2021 and two weeks later the daily deaths were 53 per day and the daily cases through December were about 20-60. Daily cases dropped from 24,000 per day in mid-December to about 8000 at the end of December. By Jan 4, 2022 the daily deaths from COVID in South Africa increased to 150 per day. Cases continued to drop from 7000 to 3000 per day. Daily cases are staying steady at 2200-2700 per day but the daily COVID deaths have increased to nearly 300 per day.

Denmark is seeing its highest daily cases of COVID deaths in this Omicron BA.2 wave. Adjusting for its 2.2 million population then its daily cases of 40 deaths per day would translate to 6000 COVID deaths per day at a USA scale 330 million population.

UK saw increasing COVID deaths after Omicron BA.1 peaked but has seen a drop in COVID deaths in the last two weeks.

The US COVID deaths would be in the 1000 to 1500 per day level after declining from 2000 per day if the US matches the UK. The UK is about 2-3 weeks ahead of the US in the current pandemic situations.

SOURCES – John Hopkins