Ukraine-Russia War Update Feb 27 2022

The main updates for the Ukraine War is the West has kicked Russia out of the SWIFT financial system and Ukrainian forces have been successfully resisting so far.

Drones sent from NATO Ally, Turkey have been used to coordinate laser targeted strikes on Russian armor.
Russia has not integrated night vision goggles. They only advance during the day.
Russia has lost a fair bit of armor and planes
Russia has not established air superiority.

Key Takeaways February 27

Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear and strategic missile forces, described as “deterrence forces,” on their highest alert status in response to “aggressive statements in the West” on February 27.
Russian forces likely conducted an operational pause on the Kyiv axis on February 26-27 to deploy additional supplies and forces forward. Russian forces will likely resume offensive operations against Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces largely conducted an operational pause on their current broad front of advance between Chernihiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces continue to delay and inflict losses on the Russian advance but will likely not be able to halt further advances if the Kremlin commits additional reserves.
Russian forces entered the city of Kharkiv for the first time on February 27 but remain unlikely to take the city without the use of heavier firepower.
Russian forces have encircled Mariupol from the west and began initial assaults on the city. Russian forces have not made any major territorial gains from the east in Donbas after four days of fighting. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.
Russian forces continued to advance north from Crimea towards Zaprozhia and, in conjunction with Russian advances on Mariupol, threaten to isolate Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in Donbas if they do not withdraw.
Russian forces failed to seize Kherson after Ukrainian counterattacks reclaimed it on February 26. An unknown concentration of Russian forces remains on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and threatens Mikolayiv, however.
Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
The Belarusian government is setting information and legal conditions to justify a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine and the imminent deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus as of February 27.
US and allied sanctions against Russian banking will likely crush Russian foreign currency reserves, depleting the value of the ruble and risking Russian hyperinflation.
The European Union announced direct military aid to Ukraine for the first time in EU history on February 27.
Germany announced a dramatic reorientation of its foreign policy to mitigate the threat that Russia poses to Germany and its allies. Germany will prioritize military spending and energy independence despite short-term economic costs.

SOURCES – ISW, Task and Purpose
Written by Brian Wang,

29 thoughts on “Ukraine-Russia War Update Feb 27 2022”

  1. Putin made two major miscalculations;

    1. He thought the Ukrainian President, who is an ex-comedian, would flee and he could simply decapitate the leadership and the people would do nothing. But turns out Zelensky is a hero and the Ukrainians are not the cowed sheep of an autocratic state like Belarust so now he has a war against 40 million Ukrainians with weapons being shipped from Europe each day. He can take the country but cannot hold it. Meanwhile Russia now has no forces in the east of Russia and ironically it is not NATO that is the threat to take Russian territory but China, who want Vladivostok and parts of Siberia back under Chinese control.
    2. China and Russia doctrine is that the West is disunited and in decline and USA needs to be pushed out of Europe. But Germany has finally woken up to the realisation that Putin is not somebody they can do business with (for all they tried) and the money for the Russian tanks and bombs is being sourced from German and other European countries who buy Russian gas and oil. Turns out Putin has created the opposite of what he wanted. The need for NATO is resurgent and there is even talk of Sweden or Finland joining. Meanwhile the USA, EU, UK, Scandinavia, Canada, Japan and the other democracies have brought the hammer down on the Russian economy.

    If Putin had waited a few years till China attacked Taiwan then he could have attacked Europe while the US was distracted. Fortunately for the West he did not do this!

  2. Really, Putin's best hope at this point is that the Ukrainian government agrees to some token concessions in return for his withdrawal, and then the Watermelons in Europe and the US prevent us from rendering his fossil fuel exports redundant, so he has a chance to gradually rebuild the supplies he's presently burning through, while he retains the threat of shutting off Europe's heating supplies in the middle of the winter.

    But at this point it appears he's woken too many Western leaders to the sort of threat he genuinely represents, and they're probably not going to go back to sleep fast enough to save him.

    The situation here is the US isn't as promising; Europe is close enough to Ukraine that the leaders there had to take it seriously, we're far enough away that Biden is still stuck in "going Green" mode, sending billions Putin's way while pursuing their renewable fantasies.

    Sadly, we're likely to remain Putin's financial lifeline for several years to come, as the Biden administration does everything it can to avoid the US returning to energy self-sufficiency.

  3. Nuclear weapons are literally the only way Russia would have even the slightest chance against NATO. (If by chance you mean mutual suicide.) His conventional forces are hollowed out due to Russia's economic weakness, his army isn't remotely the conventional powerhouse NATO was formed to defend against. It has a lot of men, but that's essentially all it has, the conventional armaments are largely obsolete, and Russian industry has horrible QC problems these days.

    The reality is that he's burning resources in Ukraine that he can no longer afford to replace due to the sanctions. He'd planned for a lightning war, decapitating the Ukraine government before it could put up any resistance. He didn't get that, and now he's stuck trying to find a way out without having to admit he lost.

    Because, sure, he can defeat the Ukrainian government, if he goes all in. But that won't give him control of Ukraine, and the resistance there will have him bleeding supplies and men he can't replace.

    The best case scenario really is that somebody puts a bullet in his head, and calls the whole thing off.

  4. 20 billion $ per day. Allegedly. that's the cost of each day for Russians-ammo, supplies, fuel, lost equipment, sanctions, financial markets. Despite skyrocketing prices of oil and gas.

  5. There are obviously reports of craft doing incredible things throughout history, way before the U.S. existed.

    So, the answer is either, yes and/or no. UAP seems weirdly drawn to war. Check out the fighter jets scrambled from Hawaii in an attempt to identify an object a little over a week ago, or the triangular object hovering over Islamabad for few hours earlier this month.

    If ETs are hostile, Russia isn't the major problem. If they're not hostile and hands-off, Russia is currently the major problem.. However, sitting around and waiting for us to deatroy ourselves so they can swoop in and terraform the planet seems hostile.

    But, first, that means they could terraform any planet and wouldn't need ours. Secondly, they'd need to be some patient af ETs.

  6. I don't think the kind of technology referenced is reversed engineered alien technology, either. Doesn't have to be. It only has to be something incredibly advanced that the public doesn't know about. Allele built it. I think likely some black budget program. It doesn't have to be aliens, though; that's just one theory.

  7. The best case scenario is that Putin takes Ukraine, and everything stops there.
    His rule in Russia is solid, especially now, with a successful conquest. His army surrounded Kiev already, after 5 days. At this rate, all of Ukraine will fall in two weeks.

    If UE or NATO pushes further, Putin will respond in kind. And he has more than enough firepower to annihilate any military power, including all of NATO – in extremis, with nuclear weapons.

  8. Lol… China into South Korea and Japan? The history is quite different. Both past and present. South Korea and Japan were never Chinese allies , holding Chinese only usable military port in winter time, with vast areas of Chinese ethnic majority, whose elected president was ousted in illegal way and the new one (who is anti Chinese) was voted without their participation. That is however the complicated Ukrainian situation.

    And yes, power is might. USA could get away with many things in the past because of its power. Like invading Iraq in pre emptive attack…

    What we view as what aboutism is considered as PRECEDENT in international politics.

    How far ago we want to consider precedents is complicated. In theory, we kinda agreed on fixing post WW2 borders. Usually. Same thing for the past common sport of annexation, which became pretty rare post WW2, but would the US not annex half of Mexico, had the UN existed in the 19th century?

    Fact is, Putin could not allow Ukraine to become NATO. Just as US could not allow Cuba to have ICBMs so close to southern US.

    But US did not invade Cuba.
    Could Putin prevent Ukraine joining NATO by any other way?

  9. Because obviously, aliens only land on the USA.
    If the US has such programs, so do Russia and China.

    And if such aliens exist, are Russians the major problem?

  10. Those TB2 Bayraktar drones (Turkish body, Ukrainian engines, and Canadian brains apparently) have been utterly owning the stalled out russian convoys. Either the convoys are outpacing organic AAA defense (because they ran out of fuel to keep up), or they don't seem to be operating the AA assets very well, along with lack of air superiority.

    Apparently the Bayraktar's are small, with a low thermal signature. Not stealthy per se, but do have lower RCS characteristics due to size and composites use.

    With that big column north of Kyiv (reported 17-40 miles long), it's an utter shooting gallery waiting to happen. Lord knows what would be happening if you had gunpod equipped aircraft strafing those convoys, rather than limited drones with a small missile payload. If the ukrainian air force had heavy strafing capable aircraft up, it would look like those utterly massacred convoys during the first gulf war that got owned by A-10's singing the BRRRT song.

    Turkey is probably delighted by the free PR for the drone, will certainly help sales…

  11. I think everyone acknowledges that the US has black defence programs, and if history is a guide, likely these include more stealth, hypersonics, and probably directed energy weapons. But reverse engineered alien technology? Someone has been watching too many Independence Day movies! As for Trump, if he was briefed on such programs, then likely his buddy Putin knows all about, if he didn’t already know all about them.

  12. Did you even watch the video? We're only 5 days into the war. Russian tactics are obvious to see here:

    1) They are probing the Ukrainian positions and falling back
    2) They are limiting inner city fighting and choosing to skirt around and encircle instead
    3) Russia is clearly holding back its best forces. They will come into play later

    As for videos of destroyed "Russian armor", do note Ukraine has exactly the same equipment as Russia does so it's hard to know what exactly has been destroyed. It's very easy to spray paint a vehicle with a Z or a V afterwards

  13. Yeah, I don't think he's willing to destroy it. But I don't think he's looked at the U.S. invasion in the Middle East for any kind of decision. He was around during the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan. He'd remember that.

  14. I don't necessarily think we've worked directly with extraterrestrials, but I certainly believe that we have managed to reverse engineer some of their technology. If any of the UAP we've seen in the leaks to the present over the past few years can do what they appear to be doing, then there is no need for nuclear weapons. *IF* those craft belong to a nation on Earth. It would mean whatever government has that technology has control over gravity.

    If I had control over gravity, I'd build a device that could fling or push an incoming warhead far out into space.

  15. China into Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea and eventually Japan.
    If Russians can get away with it, we should be able to?

  16. Putin is nothing more than a bully, a street thug with a big gang , he needs to go away.
    Send a coupla guys from Chicago or New York and get it done.

  17. Putin thought to win this in about 2 days with only a lot of hot Crimea-style rhetoric from his detractors. As it stands, I've heard he may have about 6 days left before he runs out of everything he needs to continue. Even if Kyiv may fall in that period, it seems very unlikely the fighting will be anywhere close to over.

    And Russia has an economy smaller than Italy's, whoops, past tense. It had an economy smaller than Italy's — because he is getting a lot more than hot rhetoric from his detractors, which are now within and without, and even his "friends" seem to be edging a bit away from him.

    Driving Sweden and Finland into siding with NATO would make this whole fiasco a very large net negative for him, just by itself.

    He has also made himself a pariah which, as someone who puts nerve agents on doorknobs in London and radioactive waste in English cocktails, he already should have been. Never forget that he is a stereotyped James Bond villain, an old-school KGB man with no redeeming features.

    Lastly, I don't know what it would take to drive his removal, or if there is anyone that that could make it happen (I think the oligarchs are just financial slaves) but there are many privileged people that he needs that may have access and, eventually if not already, the desire to make it happen.

  18. I don't think Russia can actually afford to occupy Ukraine indefinitely. And their attempt to install a puppet regime is pretty much dead at this point, even if they decapitate the Ukraine government, who would take Putin's replacement seriously enough to stand down?

    I just hope somebody puts a bullet in Putin's head soon, or otherwise deposes him, before he can start a nuclear war.

  19. As I have mentioned here Putin not a long time ago, when pushed to the corner, will put the nuclear card on the table. That will become clear and glowing very soon. We have spent Trillions in the last 75 years in Black budget also working with aliens and adapting their technology. We have abilities that no one has on this planet. Trump, who cannot shut up his mouth, hinted about this capabilities. I am sure that we have the ability to neutralize Russia's weapons or at least pose a greater threat to Russia than what it does. We need use it now to quell Putin threats and bring him down. The Maniac wants to take the world.

  20. Or the West can do what comes naturally and issue some partial sanctions and “unfriendly” statements and ease them a few months after the Putin Puppet is installed with the leaders of Western nations sitting next to Putin and Xi at international conferences as everyone takes pride at “easing tensions”. I’m sure not *too* many other nations will end up “liberated” in the future.

  21. While the West should do everything it can to support the Ukrainians and keep them in the fight for as long as possible, it should also plan for the long-term occupation of much or all of the Ukrainian by Putin’s regime. Such planning requires:

    1) Not forgiving and forgetting when the shelling turns into the low key violence of a militant pro-Putin occupation dictatorship. The West has a notoriously poor attention span.

    2) Ratcheting up all sanctions, tariffs and divestment efforts to the level of complete, total and uncompromising. This will have unfortunate repercussions for the Russian and *Belarusian* people but that is their problem. And yes this means energy too. If Europeans need to endure a few blackouts while they transition back to coal and nuclear it is a small sacrifice compared to what they endured during WWII and compared to what Ukrainians are enduring. Everyone can help out by reducing energy consumption. When you’re driving alone you’re riding with Putin.

    3) Divesting from all Putin’s allies like China (which should be divested from for many other reasons). If Putin wants to be at war with the world he can be cut off from it. Let him have all his relations with Iran, the Neo-Maoists of China and North Korea. Cut off all lending to developing nations who what to be “non-aligned” and keep dealing with China and Russia/Belarus. Let China fund their ill-considered, poorly built and maintained infrastructure projects if that’s the side they want to be on.

  22. I guess that will force, or even give the opportunity for Russia and China and others to build their own version of SWIFT. And non aligned countries might join.

    Shouldn't the US also suffer sanctions for the illegal invasion of Iraq, based on fake evidence of WMDs?

    But it didn't. Because nobody would do anything against the US.

    Power is might. Real Politiks.

    That is what Putin is doing. So cut the pretentious nonsense of what is right or wrong.
    If we go by THAT measure, we have to judge more seriously some US military interventions.

    From a logic real politik point of view, Russia was being cornered by NATO since the 90s.
    NATO started flerting with Ukraine and if Ukraine joined, that would mean nuclear silos 450km from Moscow and blocking Russia from access to unfrozen seas in the winter.

    Effectively, NATO went ideological (just like the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan occupation) and then acted with surprised Pikachu face when Russia acted first

  23. Putin saw the US invasion of Iraq and thought it looked like fun.

    Both morons were sure they would be greeted as liberators.

    The difference is that Russia isn't willing to destroy the Ukraine before capturing it.

    Both countries should learn from China. Debt traps are far more effective than guns.

  24. I don't think so. In fact, the Russian army is there to stay. If they pull out now, it is a guarantee that the remains of Ukraine will go to NATO. Even if you install a puppet government, in a few years it might get re-elected or overthrown, which would negate any gains whatsoever. On the other hand, if you have millions of people resenting your occupation it would be extremely hard to maintain any control.

  25. "US intelligence agencies are urgently debating the possibility that
    President Vladimir Putin of Russia has lost touch with reality, reported NYT".

    "They were doing direct head of state diplomacy, and Putin lied to them," said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a risk assessment firm in New York.
    "Putin has behaved in a staggering, outrageous fashion to rip up what the Europeans thought were kind of inviolable norms," he said. The shift among European leaders "shows that this is not about Ukraine, it's a change in the global order that we
    have slipped into a new Cold War with Russia."

    Neurosis, the successful Repression of one's childhood, baby or paranate trauma, is itself a separation from one's own reality. As it decays, becomes unsuccessful as we see here, all of reality is fogged out. For yet more harsh reality for gas suppliers:

  26. The position for defender is very demanding. They are surrounded from 3 sides. The army has to be stretched, it is not linear front. Tanks can push forward and try to encircle them. The terrain is also pretty flat. Neverthless they are defending much better than anticipaded. Russia has failed to get any significant gains even with all their special forces and war machinery. Hands down to Ukrainians and their will to fight and resist the russian enemy. Too bad Ukrainians dont have more air defense. Vital is to neuralize russian air supremacy and their tanks. If sources are correct Eu is already transfering air fighters to Ukraine. That means mig-s and Su, which Ukrainian pilots are trained to use. It would be interesting to know how much is war costing the russian enemy per day? The west will try to suffucate russian enemy regime with appropriate economic measures conserned their unproveked, planned agression against the west. The more Ukraine will resist and deflect russian attack the weaker Putin will become. It is David vs Goliath and David is sucessfully resisting. The enemy has failed with their objectives of securing fast victory and installing puppet president.

  27. But that was what Putin was demanding before anyway. Russia is never going to consider anything a win, or even a draw, if Zelensky is still in power. The tanks will never withdraw until Ukraine becomes another Belorus.
    Meanwhile the queues at Moscow cash machines are getting bigger. Its that which will decide this conflict.

  28. I guess we won't know how successful their resistance is for some time. The longer they can hold out, though, the more chance for regime change in Russia; I hear that Russians are not very happy with Putin at the moment, and dictators are secure right up until the moment they aren't anymore.

    The only good thing to come of this is Europe finally waking from their green tinged slumber and realizing how stupid it is to become mortally dependent on a hostile, totalitarian state.

    Ideally this realization will be generalized to China, and the world will start disentangling their economies from what Reagan rightly called "the Axis of Evil".

  29. Ukraine is still resisting – but are they "successfully" resisting?

    E.g. the Russians have surrounded but haven't "taken" any cities yet. But would Putin gain anything from the expense (and bigger black eye) of urban warfare? The Ukrainians have gotten the message that he *could*, and are going to negotiate. Russia will probably get everything it really wants from Ukraine for little more than a a cease fire and a promise to pull out if the next stage goes as Putin expects.

    My guess is that the next stage will be Putin demanding Western nations drop all sanctions and further Eastward expansion of NATO in return for Russia pulling out of Ukraine (which Putin wants to do anyhow), and agreeing not to shut off the oil, gas and coal flowing to Europe (which he doesn't really want to do).

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