Brian Wang Talks With Emmet Peppers on Tesla and Batteries

I had an interview with legendary Tesla investor Emmet Peppers. Emmet made nearly $100 million out of $1 million in 2020 when he made major Tesla options investments.

I spoke with Emmet Peppers and Matt Smith about my research that China battery companies are making loads of iron LFP batteries.

I have written about this here.

Svolt’s “SV ‘600’ Strategy” was released on December 8, 2021. This is nearly doubling the company’s previous goal of 320 GWh. SVolt energy is targeting 600 GWH/year of capacity in 2025 with 450 GWh of actual batteries made.

SVolt Chairman and CEO Yang Hongxin said at the company’s second Battery Day event that the total global demand for lithium batteries for transportation electrification and energy storage will exceed 1.8 TWh by 2025, and that the company aims to capture 25% of the global market share. 1.8 TWh of batteries with 75% for electric cars with 50 kwh battery packs would be 27 million cars. There would be 25% or 450 GWh of storage.

CATL has targeted 1200 GWh/year of batteries in 2025. CALB is targeting 500 GWh/year of batteries. CATL is the main battery supplier to Tesla and the flood of CATL LFP batteries went into high gear in November, December of last year. In December, Tesla used the flood of batteries to increase monthly EV production by 18%. Monthly went up from 97000 to 115000.

Quarterly: In Q2 2021 about 15% Tesla production growth. In Q3 2021 about 15% Tesla production growth. In Q4 2021 about 28% Tesla production growth.

The interview with Emmet was before the reports of Tesla doubling production in China to 2 million cars starting next month.

About 60-80% of the by 2025 battery factories have been funded and construction started.

Adding up all of the Tesla 4680 batteries, China LFP batteries, Europe and US batteries, there should be 3-5 TWH/year of batteries in 2025. This is enough for over 50 million electric cars. Tesla maintaining 20% market share would mean 10 million cars per year.

I think Tesla grows its share.

China is already at over 20% EVs for its 26 million total cars per year. China should end the year at over 30% EVs. China should be at 60%+ EVs by 2024 and 70% by 2025. About one third to one half of those cars will be cheap EVs which will not be competing in the same market with Tesla.

I had my own video up a month ago talking about Tesla having abundant batteries.

There was also my projection that abundant batteries and extra capacity in China and rapidly build of increased China capacity will enable Tesla to make 2 to 2.5 million cars in 2022.

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