Putin Has Started the War With Ukraine

Russia’s President Putin has started the war in Ukraine.

Nextbigfuture had previously reported that Ukraine has virtually no air force.

Russia’s defense ministry says it has attacked military infrastructure at Ukrainian airbases and degraded Ukraine’s air defenses.

Several Ukrainian cities were under attack on Thursday morning.

* Ukraine’s airports and airfields are being or already have been destroyed
* Ukrainian airspace was closed to civilian aircraft as the region was considered an active conflict zone.
* Highways could be seen jam-packed with vehicles early Thursday as Ukrainian citizens desperately tried to flee to safety.
* Ukraine imposed martial law Wednesday night as Russian forces launched offenses across the country. A nationwide state of emergency had been in effect, giving officials extra powers to impose restrictions. Under martial law, military leaders are the absolute authorities of Ukraine’s civilians.

The US Can Financially Punish Russia by Using Oil and Gas

Russia is mainly an economy like Saudi Arabia but a country with nuclear weapons. A US economic punishment for these actions would be to ramp up oil and gas production from 11 million barrels per day now in the USA back to 13 million barrels per day which was achieved throughout 2019 and then go beyond that oil production level.

Europe imports 2.3 million barrels of oil per day from Russia. US increasing production and exporting to Europe will reduce oil prices. Russia makes $3 billion per year for every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil. Oil is now about $100. Oil was about $60 per barrel in 2019.

The US increased oil production from 8.6 million barrels per day in 2016 to 13.0 million barrels of oil per day in March 2020.

World oil prices can move from $100 to $30 when world oil supplies go from being short 2 million barrels per day to an oversupply of 2 million barrels per day.

Nextbigfuture went over how to reduce European dependence on Russian Gas.

* Germany can keep all six of their nuclear reactors running and not need to import 60 TWh per year of energy
* France can increase nuclear electricity exports to Germany which France has done for decades. This could replace half of Germany’s natural gas for electricity needs in 2022 and all of it by 2023.
* The US could increase nuclear energy generation to free up natural gas. This could be used to reduce non-European Liquified natural gas demands. Building up liquified natural gas production facilities and import and export terminals would take some time. But substantial progress could be made by next year.
* 2 out of the 5 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports could be replaced in 2022 and probably 1-2 million barrels per day for each of the next two years.
* there is also some short pipelines that would need to be built to move oil and gas around to new Eastern European locations
* The GDP hit could be minimized to 2-3% and it would be one year and less in 2023. Germany keep running their nuclear reactors. This is 60 TWh/year. The natural gas imports remaining would be 60 TWh/year. 30 TWh/year less than just one month ago and the shutdown of the three nuclear reactors. France increasing electricity would replace the natural gas needed for German electricity. France would need to move around their shutdown for maintenance and refueling schedule to keep more generators online and then during a shutdown they need to perform stretch uprates 2-7% non turbine boosts. Maxing LNG imports as is already being done minimizes disruption. Maybe 10-20% drop in natural gas instead of 40% which is Russia’s share of Europe natural gas. Full recovery next year.
* It would likely end up being global swapping. China would take all of Russias oil and gas. Europe would then shift to its own nuclear energy and US, Canada, Saudi and Qatar oil and natural gas. But Russia would have no more energy leverage in Europe.

Military Situation

In 2014, Ukraine’s defense minister said the country had 6,000 combat-ready troops. Today in 2022, Ukraine’s army numbers around 145,000-150,000 troops and has significantly improved its capabilities, personnel, and readiness. Over the last eight years of war with Russia, the army and special ops have improved but have limited heavy gear. The Navy and Air Force are even weaker than before the 2014 invasion.

The Ukrainian military can slow the Russian forces but would need to avoid getting crushed by Russian air superiority. Good Special Ops and a combat-ready army would be effective for causing a lot of problems for Russian occupation.

Nextbigfuture reviewed a 36 page study from December 2021 of Putin’s military options for an invasion. The analysis estimates that Russia would need 325,000 troops to take and hold Kyiv. Russia is likely to take the eastern parts of Ukraine and hold the port of City of Odessa.

97 thoughts on “Putin Has Started the War With Ukraine”

  1. So, if I'm reading you correctly, if you know a war is about to breakout, max out all your credit cards on food and other supplies.

    Then the cards have their computers wiped, and you're sitting at home with $50k worth of steak and scotch.

  2. If this is really about oil and gas then, we must develop fusion as fast as possible. Maybe such breakthrough will free us from current petty conflicts and unite us as global civ

  3. economic pressure not that effective for everyday folks and their leaders — just the oligarch companies' bottom line. Shame and humilitation is the only way.

  4. Your post sounds a little too 50s/60s Cold War era propaganda. If we take the surrender of a Russian battalion yesterday ‘not knowing who they’re shooting at’ and the rising protests in Russia against the invasion, we arrive at one conclusion. The soldiers are (somewhat unwilling) toys in a dangerous game being played by a handful of people who’s days may hopefully be numbered.

  5. agreed. backing a dying, tired, old pathetic animal into a corner with still a few fangs left, likely leads to a disproportionate 'nothing to lose' response.

  6. pretty little economic sanctions wil mean nothing. these people have suffered under starvation, freezing, and disease. It is only humiliation and respect-fail that they wither and cower. Ignore and remove them from international exposure – they will plead and beg.

  7. Offers to remove sanctions if things are done is a negotiation. Economic punishment is ramping up US oil and gas production so the US makes $100 billion or more additional per year while reducing the revenue that Russia makes. Oil price reduction under Trump administration had three times the economic impact of sanctions on Russia per the IMF.

    Carrots and sticks. Offer a carrot but only give it if they do what is wanted and worth it. G7 is a place where meetings are had to discuss world economic issues. There are no pre-commitments at those meetings or negotiations. Are you going to have useful meetings at some location or not. Even if Russia or China are opponents on some matters, there were still meetings and negotiations during the Cold War.

    Trump kept in place the Magnitsky Act, which targeted high-ranking Russians with sanctions. His administration also put new sanctions on five Russians and Chechens over human rights abuses, and it approved lethal arms sales to Ukraine, which Obama had not.

    A sanction bill in August 2017 targeted Russia’s energy and defense sectors with sanctions. 2019 bill blocked Nord Stream 2.

  8. I often wonder whether we have so much military infrastructure because it just gives a great life opportunity to those who would otherwise go into the private sector. Top tech for engineering grads. Shelter, meals, and discipline for the aimless late-teens. Advancement for other disciplines and officers. Keeps some out of prison. Combine with the military being a major source of funding for entire industries for theory, design, and product. Many in the population like the prestige and gee-whiz factor — as oposed to the ridiculous monster war parades that so many dictatorships think impress or intimidate their populations (do those in N.Korea have the choice to not attend?). It's a culture like pro sports and movies/ tv.

  9. A lot of Middle East countries lost their aggression with rock-bottom oil prices – given time – though many years below $40, especially 90s. It's coming – lost and diverted demand. The whole OPEC collapse by 2030.

  10. agreed. it's the relatively honest and self-motivated and productive middle class that defines a country/ culture. If its just desperation from below and hate/greed from above then the class warfare prevails. The bell curve is crucial to a minimum economic and cultural sustainability.

  11. Well. When your population, military, senior politicians, etc., all complain and fight/ scheme among themselves (and suffer in many cases) for a country's lack of face-saving glory, this malaise, dissatisfaction, anxiety, and blame-gaming manifests itself in violence, aggression, and especially coveteousness to your neighbors – especially those with a dramatic past. I don't see a future for this region, considering many resources and trading oportunities will dwindle with time. What to live for?

  12. definition: A shill is a hustler or con-person who tries to convince other people to buy something or think something is great.

    I do not profit from telling the facts about Tesla, SpaceX, AI companies, energy companies. People can buy or not buy Tesla. The stock will end up trading pretty much in line with earnings performance, actual growth and expected earnings performance.

    I would like more readership but blogs are dying. Ad revenue is dying. Getting more readers and traffic is not something that makes is a major objective. I want to provide value to people. I want to get the memes of actual facts and solutions out there.
    I am educating people with research to direct sources and highlighting what is relevant. There is a lot of misunderstanding about Russia. People need to know there is no possibility of NATO/US vs russia shooting war. Russia wants Odessa for Ukraine leverage. Oil and Gas and energy are the keys. Just like I provide understanding about nanotech, AI, Quantum etc…

    I will not be silenced by the annoyance of false accusations and insults. If people are not mature enough to handle other facts and opinions then they are free to use other sources.

  13. Why stop with COVID vaccines? Flu vaccines. Smoking. Exercise. Weight loss. Alcohol. drugs. Diet. Antiaging therapies. Everything that passes peer review with positive medical impact needs to go into mandate.

    I pushed for Draconian quarantines back in Jan 2020. When it would have mattered. I personally tried to get millions of COVID tests from South Korea to NY and california. but got no response. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/01/even-more-draconian-quarantines-are-needed-to-stop-coronavirus-2019-ncov.html

    When the pandemic was early. As Taiwan showed, early action. Real testing right away at airports. Contact tracing worked. The same actions now are meaningless. Especially with the sloppiness of compliance and implementation.

  14. Guns and pipebombs were planted before Trumps speech. Time travel needed for cause and effect.

    Putin built up his war machine for over 8 years. He built up troops for a year.

  15. I provide loads of facts, data and links. Where is anything but parroted allegations from you? You are like a hand puppet for the media. MSNBC or CNN say something that Clinton had planted and you repeat it. It is like they have a virtual hand up your ass to work your mouth.

    I can look and investigate everything that happened or happens and go to direct sources. I can validate against other not in dispute data and stats to see if a theory is correct.

  16. Clinton and campaign used her lawyer Sussman and Jake Sullivan to get FBI to investigate Trump before and after. They leaked to media to investigate what they created.


    Joffe – Tech executive 1 mined non-public DNS traffic to fabricate connection to Russian bank server. Rodney Joffe, senior vice president of Neustar provided data to Georgia Tech. Emails show the Joffe to Georgia Tech Antonakakis and Dagon, Asking for and getting White house records. False claim then made to FBI.

    2019, DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz admitted in 2019 that “there were no such links” between Trump and the Russian bank https://www.justice.gov/storage/120919-examination.pdf

  17. Putin is kin on reminding us about Russia nuclear capabilities, in general Russia has developed in the last decade better long-range missile attack as well as missile defense than us.

  18. If someone was not wearing a seatbelt in the same car, I'm in and I then get into a rollover wreck they will be bouncing around the cabin until they're ejected. That bouncing around will hurt the other passengers. Please try and stop using analogies to prove your point when they don't make any sense. Thanks.

  19. I suppose that all depends whether you buy into the idea of the US as world policeman/ role model/ consultant/ psychiatrist. A somewhat stable world is a good customer, cheap worker, and a place to keep all the rest of the low productivity/ unsavoury/ violent people. To monitor/ insert quickly into/ keep on top of various technological competition/ train locals, etc., you need a huge militatry infrastructure way beyond that for normal defense, well placed throughout. And who will supply that know-how, plus the secrets of what they're providing to the enemy… only the very slimiest capitalists – military co CEOs.

    You want a nice place with productive people who play fair, go to New Zealand or Iceland. I'd rather be dead.

    3/4s of the world would rob you blind and 1/10 of those would kill you if they could get away with it. These are the people who fill the countries which surround G7 nations. Powderkegs of chaos and violence. Only people like Putin, Ceaușescu,Stalin, etc., can manage these killer sheep,which creates the nations that wish to conquer and pillage.

  20. "Actually, we need to solve these issues of allowing the power drunk in power before we go out there, or at least before we expand greatly. "
    That is absolutely, positively baffling.
    Allowing the power drunk in power before we expand in space?
    Yea, we've only had that problem since the dawn of human civilization. Should have it worked out in a few thousand years.
    "There are environmental consequences on Earth if you nuke a country. No problem in space."
    yea, the consequences of nuking a Mars colony or space station is absolutely zilch. Duuurrrrr

  21. Definition: Authoritarian leaders often exercise power arbitrarily and without regard to existing bodies of law, and they usually cannot be replaced by citizens choosing freely among various competitors in elections. 

    Trudeau – 10 days and was going to go 40days+ circumventing courts for mass illegal parking. 5 Provinces chose to end vaccine mandates after the start of protests. Truckers going through border checks take 2-3 hours instead of ten minutes because of the vaccination card checks. 90% of truckers are vaccinated. More than general population. At this point of mass disease already spread, How is the unvaccinated 20% in one location different from the 30% unvaccinated in another location. Vaccinations protect you. Like a seatbelt protects you. If someone else is not wearing a seatbelt then it does not affect your safety. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Flu vaccination was not mandatory. Non-smoking is encouraged but not mandatory. Obesity is discouraged but anti-obesity is not mandatory.

  22. neither here nor there. staying trained, relevant, and aware is the biggest military asset of a country who has as significant financial and cultural 'skin in the game', as the US does, throughout the world and into orbit. Silly, expensive dalliances of these countries will only bleed them dry, divert civilian resources, and create regional chaos. Only the most desperate or unhinged would find value in first-world war-adventurism using decades-old tech and local anarchists to destabilize their target.

  23. You "believe" Trump would invade. This would be because of all of the other countries he invaded in four years. Oh, that's right no new shooting wars. He started a trade war with China. He has an over forty-year public history of using lawsuits and as President economic actions. Canada's conservatives like Kenney are dealing with it. Fundraising is legal until Trudeau made it illegal. Trump and others can use legal means. Hillary used her lawyers to make up charges and generate false data, surveilled the White House and to weaponize DOJ, FBI and CIA.

    Kamela Harris and other supported bail funds for BLM and Antifa. Democrat DAs release looters and BLM and Antifa rioters.

  24. Actually, we need to solve these issues of allowing the power drunk in power before we go out there, or at least before we expand greatly. There are environmental consequences on Earth if you nuke a country. No problem in space. One can wipe out another, and have zero consequences. They are also far more vulnerable, assuming there is surface exposure.

  25. 2017 inauguration riots. Was that on the democrats? Are the BLM riots with $2 billion in damage on the democrats? They raise funds to bail out BLM. BLM is 80-90% white and use names and labels to confuse those who do not look closely. Bernie Sanders supporter James Hodgkinson shot U.S. House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and hospitalized him.

  26. and it goes on and on…

    The Army’s relatively new concept of Brigade Combat Teams makes the units extremely deployable and capable of supporting themselves, by integrating engineer and support assets. Stryker units and Armor
    units are quite mobile on the battlefield.
    US forces are better trained. Our Officer corps is good, but we have the biggest advantage in our NCO corps where we have much better trained and experienced mid level leaders, compared to Russian conscription forces.
    Russia’s tanks are generally older and more unreliable than the M1A1. M1A1 > T-72. Russian T-14s are newer but they only have ~100.
    It is irrelevant that the Marine Corps has no tanks anymore, they serve a different mission.
    And finally by the time Russia engages in an armed
    conflict with Ukraine who has been preparing for this type of war, their
    abilities would be greatly diminished, and other NATO allies would be more than capable of deterring further attacks.

  27. Holaaa. and that commentary filled up with military retorts such as:
    Colonel is engaging in a lot of hyperbole. Our Army has been focused on the Russian threat since about 2014.
    His claim that we will suffer without satellites is incorrect. A Brigade does not use satellites to communicate to Battalions on down, and we preach decentralized command. The greatest strength of our Army is
    perhaps being able to operate independently. Russians are extremely capable of of jamming radio comms, but jamming systems are generally considered the #1 target at that level.
    I agree Russia boasts greater battlefield rockets and missile capabilities, but that advantage is not a true comparison to both Air Force tactical strike capability and Close Air Support (Apache Helicopter) capability, which is vastly superior to Russia.
    He does not mention Russian artillery, where they boast a lot of guns, but do not have the accuracy or counterfire ability US Artillery does.
    Russia has the biggest advantage in Air Defense where
    the US has not prioritized ADA and mobile ADA since the threat to our home country
    is low. This would limit or ability to push Russian lines, without losing a lot
    of fighters, but not defend a Russian invasion into Ukraine.

  28. He did not say it was "okay". He said basically that our response would be proportional to the degree of invasion. Though, that is the sort of thing to keep to himself, rather than make public. It is also incredibly obvious. Biden, foot in the mouth #480, could easily have had consequences beyond our national politics, but I doubt it. Putin was going to invade just like he is.
    Putin probably has a deal with China…to buy Russia's oil at a decent price, while the rest of the World pays through the nose for oil. They may publicly denounce the invasion, but I am sure they will continue the oil imports.
    It is also possible that, he was trying to get Putin to opt for a smaller invasion. A way for Putin to save face, take a nibble, claim victory and go home. But as we have seen, he is not going to be obstructed by anything other than arms.

  29. Note all the distractive attacks on the *other* socialist, to justify the favored socialist. They are all socialists. All mentally healthy people are libertarian.

  30. Surely you have heard of Primal Therapy. The full title of the first book is "The Primal Scream. Primal Therapy, the Cure for Neurosis" Neurosis is then defined as the *successful* Repression of childhood trauma. Repression is the main model component of Primal Science, btw. Other things we commonly call various mental illnesses are ways the Repression fails. The fine divisions of these partial and complete failure states into separate Disorders is looking too close. It is very simple. Feel the repressed Pain and get well. It is an experiment that is only 50 years old, successfully. The observed, reproducible results are astonishing.

  31. I've heard that some people believe Putin didn't move on Ukraine during Trump's term because he was afraid of Trump. I think that's a joke.

    This won't be a popular opinion but, I'm more likely to believe he correctly calculated that Trump's term would divide the U.S. so greatly that he was willing to wait until that damage had been done before moving into Ukraine. He was hoping that Trump being in office would create a massive rift among the population, which is what happened. Crimea in 2014 was just a litmus test.

  32. Yes. Yes. — and there is so much more of this floating around often quoted by mainstream…

    Now here is one bit from a post from a retired Army
    Colonel arguing that The US is not Ready for a Peer to Peer Fight in Europe:
    The US has NONE in the US Army, and the other Services have NONE OTHER THAN sea-launched and air-launched conventional, low flight level, subsonic cruise missiles. NO long range, land-based, conventional ballistic missiles in the US Armed Forces. How did this happen? The US National Military Strategy is as much a defense industry-driven wish list of combat systems they want to build, as opposed to a threat-defeating strategy based on US Ground Forces out-matching our peer military adversary.  Russia, for example, has many hundreds (if not thousands) of state-of-the-art missile launchers, tens of thousands of missiles (plus the Zircon that flies at Mach 6-9 – hypersonic speeds), as well as a full suite of tailored, target appropriate warheads, at multiple throw weights that can be selected based on the target to be attacked. We – the US – have ZERO such weapons.

  33. Being against something and willing to risk your life fighting it are a bit different. Or the area was already secured beforehand. If you have troops ready to die you can take a lot of casualties from an ambush. However, if you expect to be treated relatively well if you surrender and don't really want to risk your life it is a different story… For sure there Ukrainians with a will to fight but not enough

  34. Far as I know– and I suppose there is a touch of sarcasm in saying this– the only cure I know of for Narcissistic Personality Disroder is a lobotomy.

  35. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that, between 2014 and 2018, the fall in oil prices had about three times the effect of sanctions on Russia’s economy.

  36. Socialists play a good cop bad cop game with each other as the other. Left and right, conservative and liberal, they are all socialists. They are fighting over WHO has power, not whether there should be the power. Liberty Enlightening the World.

  37. That is nonse. Putin did act covertly. He waged information warfare, bought politicians into his pockets, guys like Schoeder, who signed gas pipeline bill before leaving office to make Eu dependand on Russia gas. Probably was behind and fascilitated the brexit. Trump did help Putin, plenty of facts supporting that. The alliance has weakened, americans are involved into mini civil war betwen reps and dem – Divide and conquer. Facts and evidence state that Donald Trump is pathological psychopathic liar, psychopath.

  38. Irrelevant name-calling but it is true that he operated a casino and dealt with unions in New Jersey which were influenced by the mob. What were the policies and the results? What should the policies and results be?

  39. There are facts and history. Present the facts and history and compare against Biden, Trump and Obama/Biden. We do not have to have opinion. There are track records.

    Neocons advocate for war to support the military-industrial complex (aka Lockheed, Ratheon, Boeing…). I am not calling for military war. I am calling for real economic punishment that also helps the US, European and World economies. Choose conflict and actions where the advantage is in Europe and US favor by 20X.

  40. I had expected more resistance from Ukrainians. Russians captured airbase near Kiew and transpored troops with helicopters. Why didnt they use stingers? They were deep inside Ukraine territory and could shut down a few choppers?

  41. Don't believe the words of any politicians. Look at the actual results and actual actions. Oil and gas are responsible for more than 60% of Russia's exports and now provide more than 39% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Actually "supporting Russia" is all about oil and gas prices and increasing or decreasing Russia exports. What was the price of oil from 2016-2020. What is the price of oil per barrel now? Over $100 per barrel and has been $70-90 for most of the first term. What are actual policies increased or decreased world oil prices.

  42. Brian, I’m getting the feeling you are a hardened neocon who refuses to look at the damage imposed by the prior dictator.

  43. He should never been allowed to work himself to his present level. Something should’ve been done about him in the last four years.

  44. Wonderful. As if global turmoil from a global pandemic wasn’t enough, now we have a war to worry about, which may escalate.

  45. Nonsense. More defense special interest greed. We need to break up all the big defense contractors. And I don't mean one into two. More like each into 4 companies. They have merged and merged, and we have been scammed with obscene procurement costs. The entire boards and most the other suits in these companies should be fired and possibly charged with fraud.
    Congress doesn't care, so long as the squandering happens in their districts or stockholders in their districts.
    China has 3 wimpy little carriers they have difficulty landing on even in good weather, while we have 19. Their aircraft keep falling into the drink. That is partly why they turned atolls into airports.
    Russia has just one non-op carrier, that a big crane went through, and caught on fire too.
    And our defense force is too large as well. Those people could be contributing to our economy. I would reduce personnel by 40%.
    The real strength of a country is in its economy, not its military. Obviously, we need what is necessary to defend us, and perhaps a few of our friends, more if there is some cost sharing.

  46. Putin already had 200,000 troops on the border. One month before the actual current President Biden said a minor incursion was ok. The buildup took over 5 months. Putin was waiting for encouragement and praise from Trump? The timeline does not fit and Putin is going for a country or part of it

  47. Justin Trudeau applied the Emergency Act. To punish workers without trial. Six provinces (led by Alberta) suing on the overreach. Actual evidence of increased authoritarian power. Putin did not act in the four years of Trump. Not theoretical four years. Actual four years. Putin took Crimea during Obama/Biden 2014. Putin taking more of Ukraine under Biden. So the actual facts of history show the statement that Putin would have been facilitated and encouraged by Trump did not happen. The statement that was encouraging was when Biden said a minor incursion into Ukraine is OK. That was said late January 2022. One month before the actual invastion. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-01-20/bidens-minor-incursion-comment-roils-diplomatic-efforts-to-halt-russian-invasion-of-ukraine

  48. They can't nuke Russia…it is too close. Russia can't risk nuking them either. But wouldn't want to anyway. The whole point is to take the assets of the country, farmland and such. What good is nuked farmland? Buffer? Hogwash! They want the resources, and the political capital of having taken Ukraine and made it part of Russia again.

  49. No, the reason oil production went down in the US is because, during the pandemic lock-downs, 107 oil producers went belly up. At one point, they had to pay people to take their oil, because there was no where to put it. It takes time for those assets to be acquired by other companies or for companies to reorganize and get back to pumping oil. Workers moved on to other jobs… It is hard to get the production back again. High prices help, but not if it is volatile.
    Biden did not shut down a pipeline, it was never pumping anything. And it would not have been finished by now either. I am not against that pipeline. I think environmentally it is better to have newer pipelines than old rickety ones.
    Though, yes, Biden has been wrongheaded not to facilitate increased oil production.
    I have been saying we need to try to net export 8 million barrels a day, for years. And we should build electric cars, and nuclear reactors as well. These things don't have to oppose one-another…they should go hand-in-hand.

  50. Yes, he actually stated it was a good thing to invade Ukraine. Straight out of his mouth. Advocating for war. Unbelievable.

  51. Putin should never have been allowed to go this far. Sanctions for his bad behavior should have started pre-Biden, but of course Trump was buddy-buddy with him.

  52. And the Canadians, in an attempt to rein in the corrupt Alberta government, have done the same on their end. So in a way, the whole pipeline issue is an internal Canadian issue, not a US issue. Yeah, echo chambers…

  53. You really need to read outside your bubble echo chamber.
    Biden since being elected has..
    -Cancelled Keystone pipeline (hurts US shale export efforts)
    -Cancelled further fracking on fed land (hurts US shale expansion)
    These actions have sent gas oil prices sky rocketing (Gave Russia the funding needed for this invasion)
    -Approved Russian Nord Stream (makes Europe dependent on Russia)(pipelines are a major advantage in export cost)
    -Killed the Israel/Egypt/Cyprus/Greece pipeline to EU (real potential competition to Russian gas)

    Empowering our enemies economies while damaging our own and then wondering why our enemies feel embolden enough to go hot war on our allies is kinda silly.

    Trump had pushed oil gas prices to record lows with his actions while driving ever larger portions of that money stream into the US economies coffers all the while starving the Russian main source of funding. Such tactics to defeat limit enemy power while increasing our own is what used to be the definition of smart power. Biden has implemented self defeating policies, now that we are reaping those results his options is, hollow words, open direct peer war, and fairy dust promises.

  54. So why on earth would they want to seize it ? It is a huge liability with absolutely no value. The only reason would be to secure it against additional accidents.

  55. Words can have other purposes. 2016-Mar 2020 Up 4.5 million barrels of oil. Prices got down to $50/barrel. Explain how false praise matters when Putin's economy was making $60-120 Billion per year less.

  56. A quote from a fictional casino mob boss might help you understand a real-life casino owner. Words can have other purposes. 2016-Mar 2020 Up 4.5 million barrels of oil. Prices got down to $50/barrel. Explain how false praise matters when Putin's economy was making $60-120 Billion per year less.

  57. China is a land army, not at very good practice. Air Force is semi modern and training of pilots deeming capable but young and inexperienced. China has one capability strike fast and quick, any prolonged engagement would be a disaster for the control of Taiwan. China's ability to sustain attacks would not be good as logistics and modern air planes would be dominated in the pacific campaign against our modern navy. There satellites would also be disabled very quickly to fight a war of the blind. In the end no nuclear weapons would be used, China's navy would be sunk and most of their modern aircraft shot down. Their attempt would be something like the Falkland Islands war. North Korea is the wildcard of nuclear although.

  58. Russia has already gone nuclear.

    Russian troops invading from Belarus are attempting to seize the Chernobyl and Ukraine is fighting to keep them out.

  59. Sanctions and economic actions maybe would have been useful if they started years ago. They won't slow or reverse an invasion.

    Putin won't lose. If he is alive, they'll take Ukraine or escalate to at least a regional conflict.

    If Ukraine is worth defending, the best option is to assassinate Putin, apply modest military pressure, and lots of messaging that Putin was an asshole dictator whose policies endangered world peace. Russia is beautiful and will be respected. Putin chose his fate.

    If Ukraine isn't worth defending, then the current approach of sanctions and speeches is perfect.

    If Ukraine isn't worth defending, which countries are?

  60. He is not eccentric, he is mentally ill. And can be cured, after which he would be able to explain why he is/was crazy. Pretty good example, but there is competition for the prize: Icon of Neurosis.

  61. We now have a much more precise understanding, and diagnosis: Neurotic power addict., curable in Primal Therapy. His birth must have been horrible..

  62. Meh.
    The same tribal conflict nonsense that has pervaded this region for untold centuries. Backward cultures with little potential and lots of testosterone.
    Now for something way more interesting:
    Washington Post:
    Here’s a fact that ought to startle every American who assumes that because we spend nearly $1 trillion each year on defense, we have primacy over our emerging rival, China.
    “Over the past decade, in U.S. war games against China, the United States has a nearly perfect record: We have lost almost every single time.”
    That’s a quote from “The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare,” the most provocative critique of U.S. defense policy I’ve read in years. It’s written by Christian Brose, former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a close adviser to late senator John McCain (R-Ariz.).
    Brose explains a terrible truth about war with China: Our spy and communications satellites would immediately be disabled; our forward bases in Guam and Japan would be “inundated” by precise missiles; our aircraft carriers would have to sail away from China to escape attack; our F-35 fighter jets couldn’t reach their targets because the refueling tankers they need would be shot down.
    How ? It wasn’t an intelligence failure, or a malign Pentagon and Congress, or lack of money, or insufficient technological prowess. No, it was simply bureaucratic inertia compounded by entrenched interests
    …" Now that's news.

  63. You will know that the USA is at war with either Russia or China, when your debit and credit cards quit working. The first thing they will do is take down the US debit card system. Both groups have people working in US banks just for such an occassion.

    And, don't get me started on Power Grids.

  64. Russia has the troops to take Ukraine. But, not the troops to hold it.

    When the Soviet Union crumbled Ukraine had over 1000 nukes. They gave them back to Russia when Bill Clinton gave them his promise that the USA would protect their borders. I bet they wish they had kept a few. Maybe they did?

  65. cutting russia's access to swift is akin to a financial nuke. The retaliation would be a massive cyberattack by the russians and the consequence the introduction of western digital currencies…..there is no need for russia to use actual nukes.
    If china invaded taiwan that'd be an entirely different matter. Then I'd go ahead and say ww3 has officially begun. The US doesn't consider russia to be a serious threat…see lack of current's administrations response. Even if they take ukraine they have next to nothing but oil and gas that's swiftly being replaced by imports from the US. And being dependant on china(who is actually a rival) is not good for russia either. They are on their way to becoming a satelite state. Except for their nukes they're a paper tiger.

  66. At one point during this conflict, when Putin feels that we are circumventing him, Either because the sanctions impose, the military aid we offer to Ukraine or due to the military reinforcement that we send to other East European allies, he will seriously threaten us with nuclear weapons. The first move that either we or the Russians try to take is not launching nuclear weapons, but bombing the nuclear weapons of the other side. Yes, tentatively, WWW3 has already started without us knowing it. The side that is better at taking the nuclear warhead and the ability of the other side to react first, already won the war. I hope that we realize that and be the one that do that first. It may save from a nuclear war happening. However, from what I understand, Russia has developed better capabilities in these areas than the United States. He is not mad, as it seems now. He has definitely planned and he knows what he is doing better than us at this point.

  67. The fact that we have a person like Putin who could go Dr. Strangelove on us is probably one of the best reasons that we need to start expanding human civilization beyond the Earth. 

    Russia’s ‘President for Life’ is only going to get more eccentric as he gets older.

  68. Too bad we have not started Earth to Earth Power Beaming, let alone Space Solar Power, using 1980s tech.

    Speaking of power (addiction): "the fact that Putin ordered nuclear exercises ahead of the invasion caused Kasparov to question the Russian leader’s mental state.“I think that now he reached a point where he's not listening to [the] voice of wisdom in his immediate entourage, and I think his view about the world is sick,” Kasparov said. “That makes the situation even more dramatic…Let's not forget, Putin has his finger on a nuclear button. Though I think we're far from the moment where he could consider it, but the fact is that he talked about it is sending a signal that he lost the sense of reality.”

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