Major 100 Day COVID Forecast is Already Wrong After 9 Days

Nextbigfuture pointed out the brain dead forecast made 9 days ago for cumulative COVID deaths in the USA by Washington University IHME. They projected out one hundred days that total US COVID deaths would reach 947,622 by June 1, 2022. They had updated an older forecast made about a month before that was predicting about 934000 deaths by June 1, 2022. The last time they updated the weekend before the CDC would report more than 934000 deaths. The CDC today reports 947,882 deaths by the reporting up to Feb 28, 2022.

The CDC has the lowest cumulative COVID deaths count for major or popular COVID tracking sources. John Hopkins counts about 6000 more and Worldometers counts 976000. It is especially strange for Worldometers as Worldometers links to IHME for every country page.

UPDATE: CDC March 2, 2022 reports 952,000 cumulative US COVID deaths and IHME still projects on March 4, 2002 that they predict there will be 947,622 cumulative US COVID deaths by June 1, 2022.

Above is the IHME forecasts and tracking. You can see that it does not look like what has actually been happening.

IHME predicts that by April 4, 2022 the daily US COVID deaths will be between 64 and 109 and by May 29 the daily US COVID deaths will be between 10 and 30. The higher daily number is their forecast if nothing changes and is 10% less if everyone got a third dose of the vaccine and could be three times less of 80% of American used masks. Everything about these projections are ridiculous, already wrong and broken.

If IHME was right then the daily US COVID deaths would be 532-534 per day instead of 1800-2000 per day. The top and bottom of the IHME three scenarios only varies by less than 1% until March 8. Feb 12-Mar 8 IHME could see nothing making daily deaths worse or better.

IHME is putting no effort into fixing obviously broken forecasting models. IHME also took away any other alternative scenarios or all of their scenario models converged into what is wrong.

I think it is bad for anyone to plan responses to the Pandemic-endemic with extremely flawed forecasts. We have to look honestly and accurately at will happen even if it is bad news. It is not celebrating death. It is not hiding from the truth.

It is also trivial to look at what is happening in South Africa, UK and Denmark which are ahead of the US in the latest variants of the virus (Omicron and BA2) to get a better view of what will happen in the next two to three weeks. It is also easy to get a better assessment for the next two months.

Nextbigfuture also looked back at the 1920s for the post-1918 public health issues with post-pandemic flu as a model for post-pandemic COVID. There is no reason to expect average daily COVID death to drop below half of the average pandemic levels of COVID deaths during the summer of 2021 (the low point of the pandemic with widespread vaccination and a lull in COVID variants). For the US, the low point was 150-600 deaths per day.

SOURCES- CDC, Worldometers, John Hopkins, IHME
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com