Ukraine and Russia Both Lose

Chris Cappy of Task and Purpose and Bill Roggio are both veterans of the US military. They both agree that some delays and problems for Russia are expected. However, Russia is reaching its military objectives.

The 40-mile long column of tanks are stopped to set up a forward base of operations. Artillery and tanks are being set up to bombard Kyiv.

The arms being sent to Ukraine now are helpful but seem to be too little and too late to prevent the eastern half of Ukraine from falling over the next weeks and months. Captured documents from Russian units indicate that Russia’s plan was to take 15 days to lay siege to Kyiv.

In January, 2022, Nextbigfuture reviewed the 36 page Institute for the Study of War analysis. Russia has sufficient forces to take eastern Ukraine.

The longest and most difficult battles will be for Kyiv and Odesa.

The strong defense in Ukraine shows that an insurgency would be strong and costly for Russia. Attempting to take Western Ukraine (let alone any other countries) would be extremely costly and seem beyond Russia’s military.

Russia loses because the world and opponents in Europe have unified strongly against him. Russia’s economy is showing that it is weaker and more vulnerable to Western economic power.

There will be an accelerating 5-year shift out of using Russian oil and gas. This will mean Russia will have to sell mainly to China and perhaps India. However, those sales will be at massive discounts. If China knows that they are your only customer, then they pay 30-50% less than the market rate. Just ask Iran or Venezuela. Russia’s economy was twice as large as Saudi Arabia with a lot of nukes. Russia transitions to being three times as large as Iran. Saudi Arabia has a GDP of about $800 billion but Iran went from a peak of about $500 billion to $250 billion after Iran went into pariah status.

Russia has already gone from a nominal GDP of $1.7 trillion to about $1 trillion because of the collapse of the value of the ruble. After, the shift out of Europe buying Russian oil and gas then Russia will sell to China at about half price. This will take Russia down to about $750 billion in GDP. The US producers will ramp oil and gas production to bring down the global price. OPEC and other oil producers know that having a price of oil over $100 per barrel triggers recession and demand destruction.

Russia being like Iran and forced to sell at half price to China takes Russia from the 12th place economy in the world down to about 24th. It will take a few years for Russia to fall to that level. Russia will be at the GDP level of Nigeria. Russia already dropped below Indonesia in 16th place. The IMF has Iran at $1 trillion but most other economic assessments have Iran at $250 billion.

Finland and Sweden end up joining NATO. Western Ukraine remains free and joins the EU.

Germany, Poland, the Baltics, Sweden, Finland all have already started massively ramping military budgets and preparations.

Western Ukraine will get even more support from Poland, Turkey, Baltics, UK and Germany. Western Ukraine will constantly continue to try to retake any lost cities and territories. Any puppet government in Ukraine will not last.

Energy transitions will occur over the next 3-10 years. Nuclear power is revitalized in France, Germany and perhaps the USA.

Electric cars and trucks and solar power-battery storage transitions get accelerated.

There will be many Russian and Ukraine diaspora. A million Ukrainians have left Ukraine and mostly gone to Poland. Russians who disagree with what Putin is doing are leaving Russia. Russians who want any freedom or economic future know that Russia’s economy will be a basket case for decades or until there is regime change. About 300,000 people per year left Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and around 2014 when the Crimea war started. This is already becoming a larger wave, since the start of the war. Russian emigration could go to 1 million per year or more.

Putin’s father lived until he was 88. Putin is 69 and his natural lifespan is another 15-20 years.

Putin is ruthless enough to keep control and stay in power like the dictators in Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran.

24 thoughts on “Ukraine and Russia Both Lose”

  1. Jimmy Dore is an idiot, but NATO could indeed have sold the Ukrainians and the Georgians down the river to attain "peace in our time." I mean, Nigel Farage agrees with him, and Nigel is always right, isn't he?

    It would have worked, too, although we might have to sell HK and Taiwan to the Chinese in a like manner to make it really stick. But if we did, we would definitely stave off war! Until Vladimir Vladimirovich decided on a new strategic objective, in any case.

  2. Once again Brian seems to uncritically repeat the CIA/State Department fantasy of how things will go.

  3. Accuse Putin and his staff of War Crimes immediately.
    Put a bounty on their heads of whatever.
    I’m sure there are some enterprising people in Russia that would take advantage

  4. These are good points, as anyone who was willing to listen even just a month ago, but going back decades. Russia over-reached, but so did the U.S., and through decades of warnings going back to George Bush Senior.
    It's too late to go back now, but Cold War II was entirely preventable.
    The example of the Cuban Missile Crisis is brought up and is apt.

  5. The 40 mile convoy is particularly vulnerable. A daring nighttime strafing mission by half a dozen bombers could take out half the tanks if they're fast enough, and assuming Ukraine has any air power left and runways working close enough. It's too bad they don't have a EMP plane, drone or even satellite that could direct a beam of EMPs down that mostly parked line. Disabled tanks are ripe for later ground forces, especially if they block reinforcements coming through afterwards.
    Kyiv will eventually have to step up its guerilla game, maybe even post-puppet regime, and they may have to start such operations now, if they still can.
    Russia likes to attack in the winter when the ground is still frozen. March is when Ukraine starts to seriously go above freezing: and multi-ton tanks will sink in the muck if forced off-road, to avoid their own damaged/out-of-fuel tanks. A few mines/IEDs placed along the remaining road to Kyiv would help divert tanks into "sink" territory.

  6. Such states have three options. To remain 50 years behind the rest of the world, to destroy everyone including themselves by launching nukes or to say sorry, open up and democratise. The first and last are by far the most likely and I'm happy with either.

  7. The shift away from Russian oil will happen no matter what. Then how will Putin pay his local supporters?

  8. I agree. I am not sure this is enough to blunt the Russian offensive, but it is worth a shot. At the least it will make the Russians pay a heavy price and reconsider future aggression

    That knife cuts both ways. Your also killing a lot more people in the hope that the 160k Chechen war dead was an aberration.

  9. The concern is there could be nuclear launch deadman switch if Putin is killed. Could be made up. But who knows

  10. I think this may well be the end of Russian military power as we know it. They desperately need to take Ukraine for geopolitical reasons. It's taking them too long.
    The longer they sit around, the more galvanized Western Europe becomes against them. They will send weapons and support, and make it that much harder for Russia to take Ukraine.

    Russia doesn't have the money nor the manpower for a prolonged war. If they lose here, they won't be able to push through to Romania, nor invade Poland.
    And the closer they get to those objectives, the more determined WEurope becomes.

    If it gets bad enough the US may step in. Other than nukes (which is still a big threat) the Russians don't have much to stop the US Military. The US wouldn't even have to invade Russia. Just crush the Russian troops in Ukraine and be done with it. Russia can't afford to keep doing this. Who would volunteer to be in the next 40 mile long convoy if it's doomed to be destroyed instantly?

  11. They're looking into ways of doing that.
    If the USA was there, I could see a few waves of A-10 Warthogs doing the trick. Maybe a few B-52 runs as well. They're stupidly concentrated.

  12. So the almighty Putin can control the US and UK governments and opinion but cannot do that in Ukraine and has to resolve to force. Every large player tries to manipulate the public opinion but how well does it work ?

  13. The best thing would be that the troops are recalled in a failed attempt to stop the people's revolution in Moscow. What is Russian for "Goddess of Liberty" or "Liberty Enlightening the World"?

  14. Russian president has up till 10 years of optimal leadership and then he will be too old ,… But you never know who will replace him, could be better man or even worse.
    It is a chance here to repeat russian invasion of Afganistan. Usa supplied afganistans cheap stingers, which were destroying expensive soviet planes. Ukrainians can decimate russia army, their airforce, tanks,.. And since economic problems of russian regime it will be hard for them to build new ones,… On the other hand russians will get experience, never know what will hapen.

  15. That (pro) russian trolls should be banned. Like that guy "comedians", they post pro russian propaganda to manipulate public opinions and perceptions about the west,… It is very hard, because you dont know who is the guy writing those messages. It is strange brexit happened and how did usa elected trump. Perhaps it was clever manipulation of public opinions,…

  16. Don't mistake Putin for popular. He's a dictator in a country where publicly expressing hostility towards him can get you disappeared. You can't get an accurate read on public opinion states where expressing the wrong opinion can cost you your life.

  17. The problem is that not treating Russia as a pariah state doesn't make them into a responsible state, it makes them into a state that still deserves to be a pariah, but isn't suffering under the constraints of being treated as one.

  18. The US has plenty of drones and no serious qualms about hundreds of assassinations in Afghanistan.

    Why is Putin still alive?

    If was #2 in Russia and saw the anti-war protests in the streets and Putin turn into a pink cloud, I'm pretty my next move would be a phone call to Biden to make a deal.

  19. Yeah, I even tell my kids that it would be a lot better to shoot Putin than to have all those soldiers and civilians die. We are talking one evil guy compared to thousands of mostly OK people…

    Unfortunatelly, Putin is very popular in Russia and his personal protection – I assume – is very good. The USA does not want to be caught red handed killing him, or worse, attempting and failing to kill him. So there is only the lonely nuttjobs – think russian UNA-bomber – that might attempt the feat.

  20. We are making Russia a pariah state like North Korea or Cuba. Only, with a whole lot more nukes. I am not sure that is worth the Global pain it is going to cause. After all, the Norks and the Cubanos are still around after 60+ years.

  21. I would be pleasantly surprised and completely shocked if the West remembers why sanctions against Russia are in place once a Moscow puppet regime set up for Ukraine finishes a fake election.

    The West has the attention span of a goldfish when it comes to things like this. Our leaders will be shaking Putin’s hand at trade conferences by the end of the summer.

  22. I continue to think the best case scenario is somebody putting a bullet into the back of Putin's head, and calling the troops back. Short of that, Russia is likely to become little more than a satellite of China.

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