Ukraine and Russia Both Lose

Chris Cappy of Task and Purpose and Bill Roggio are both veterans of the US military. They both agree that some delays and problems for Russia are expected. However, Russia is reaching its military objectives.

The 40-mile long column of tanks are stopped to set up a forward base of operations. Artillery and tanks are being set up to bombard Kyiv.

The arms being sent to Ukraine now are helpful but seem to be too little and too late to prevent the eastern half of Ukraine from falling over the next weeks and months. Captured documents from Russian units indicate that Russia’s plan was to take 15 days to lay siege to Kyiv.

In January, 2022, Nextbigfuture reviewed the 36 page Institute for the Study of War analysis. Russia has sufficient forces to take eastern Ukraine.

The longest and most difficult battles will be for Kyiv and Odesa.

The strong defense in Ukraine shows that an insurgency would be strong and costly for Russia. Attempting to take Western Ukraine (let alone any other countries) would be extremely costly and seem beyond Russia’s military.

Russia loses because the world and opponents in Europe have unified strongly against him. Russia’s economy is showing that it is weaker and more vulnerable to Western economic power.

There will be an accelerating 5-year shift out of using Russian oil and gas. This will mean Russia will have to sell mainly to China and perhaps India. However, those sales will be at massive discounts. If China knows that they are your only customer, then they pay 30-50% less than the market rate. Just ask Iran or Venezuela. Russia’s economy was twice as large as Saudi Arabia with a lot of nukes. Russia transitions to being three times as large as Iran. Saudi Arabia has a GDP of about $800 billion but Iran went from a peak of about $500 billion to $250 billion after Iran went into pariah status.

Russia has already gone from a nominal GDP of $1.7 trillion to about $1 trillion because of the collapse of the value of the ruble. After, the shift out of Europe buying Russian oil and gas then Russia will sell to China at about half price. This will take Russia down to about $750 billion in GDP. The US producers will ramp oil and gas production to bring down the global price. OPEC and other oil producers know that having a price of oil over $100 per barrel triggers recession and demand destruction.

Russia being like Iran and forced to sell at half price to China takes Russia from the 12th place economy in the world down to about 24th. It will take a few years for Russia to fall to that level. Russia will be at the GDP level of Nigeria. Russia already dropped below Indonesia in 16th place. The IMF has Iran at $1 trillion but most other economic assessments have Iran at $250 billion.

Finland and Sweden end up joining NATO. Western Ukraine remains free and joins the EU.

Germany, Poland, the Baltics, Sweden, Finland all have already started massively ramping military budgets and preparations.

Western Ukraine will get even more support from Poland, Turkey, Baltics, UK and Germany. Western Ukraine will constantly continue to try to retake any lost cities and territories. Any puppet government in Ukraine will not last.

Energy transitions will occur over the next 3-10 years. Nuclear power is revitalized in France, Germany and perhaps the USA.

Electric cars and trucks and solar power-battery storage transitions get accelerated.

There will be many Russian and Ukraine diaspora. A million Ukrainians have left Ukraine and mostly gone to Poland. Russians who disagree with what Putin is doing are leaving Russia. Russians who want any freedom or economic future know that Russia’s economy will be a basket case for decades or until there is regime change. About 300,000 people per year left Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union and around 2014 when the Crimea war started. This is already becoming a larger wave, since the start of the war. Russian emigration could go to 1 million per year or more.

Putin’s father lived until he was 88. Putin is 69 and his natural lifespan is another 15-20 years.

Putin is ruthless enough to keep control and stay in power like the dictators in Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran.