Six Million Official Global and 18 Million Excess COVID Deaths

The CDC will report that the US will pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths in the next 25-40 days. The CDC reports the cumulative total at 946,000 as of March 15, 2022 and the seven day moving average is about 900-1200 daily deaths. It will be in April for the CDC figures but March for Worldometers. UK, Germany and other European countries are heading back up in daily cases and daily deaths. This started two weeks ago. The US will likely follow this follow up wave of COVID cases.

Worldometers reports the US cumulative total at 994k. Worldometers will report over 1 million total US COVID deaths early next week.

There is a Lancet article which calculates the excess deaths caused by COVID in many countries. The Lancet calculates 18 million excess COVID deaths globally for the first two years of the pandemic. This is versus the official COVID Global cumulative COVID deaths at 6 million.

The Lancet study makes several important contributions to understanding the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality.

First, they corrected all-cause mortality data for lags in reporting and for under-registration of death.

Second, they excluded weeks with heat waves, for which excess mortality due to COVID would be overestimated due to the large increase in observed mortality from excessive heat during the pandemic.

Third, they used an ensemble of six models to predict the expected mortality rate in the absence of COVID-19. Weights in the ensemble were based on the out-of-sample predictive validity of each model.

Fourth, for locations without weekly or monthly reported all-cause mortality data, they developed a statistical model that captured the relationship between the key COVID-19-related covariates, such as seroprevalence, infection-detection ratio, and other population-level burden of disease metrics, and excess mortality rate.

Fifth, to evaluate the robustness of the model predicting excess mortality, they conducted out-of-sample predictive validity testing, which indicated a small error rate (0·85%).

Sixth, by looking comprehensively across countries, they were able to generate estimates of excess mortality for 191 countries and territories, in addition to internally consistent regional and global aggregates. These estimates will form part of the next iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totaled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1–129·3) per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in
India (4·07 million [3·71–4·36]),
the USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]),
Russia (1·07 million [1·06–1·08]),
Mexico (798 000 [741 000–867 000]),
Brazil (792 000 [730 000–847 000]),
Indonesia (736 000 [594 000–955 000]), and
Pakistan (664 000 [498 000–847 000]).

Among these countries, the excess mortality rate was highest in
Russia (374·6 deaths [369·7–378·4] per 100 000) and
Mexico (325·1 [301·6–353·3] per 100 000), and was similar in
Brazil (186·9 [172·2–199·8] per 100 000) and the
USA (179·3 [170·7–187·5] per 100 000).

Obesity and COVID

Excess body weight is related to several comorbidities that can lead to an increasingly severe course of and consequent death from COVID-19. Metabolic disorders, for example, can predispose individuals to a poorer COVID-19 outcome. Since excess body weight can result in a greater volume and longer duration of contagion, it can also lead to a higher level of exposure to COVID-19. On average, every percentage point increment in the proportion of the overweight in adult populations contributes to an additional 3.5% points to COVID-19 mortality for high income countries.

In 2014, there were 2 billion overweight individuals globally, and the direct health care costs of obesity were around US$2 trillion. Of the global 2014 overweight population, around 14 percent live in India. In this same time period, between 2005 and 2015, overweight incidence doubled in India.

In 2020, One-third of the urban men and women in India surveyed were found to be overweight or obese. As much as 18% of men and 16% of women had high blood sugar level or were taking medication for controlling it. A quarter of urban men and women had elevated blood pressure or were taking medicine to control their blood pressure.

India is in a transition from a high rate of underweight people to a country with a significant amount of underweight and a lot of overweight people.

Russia has a lot of overweight and unhealthy people.

Brazil, Mexico and Pakistan also have high levels of obesity.

Countries can no longer afford to neglect the global nutrition crisis that has led to the obesity pandemic. At least 2.8 million people around the world die each year as a result of being overweight or obese. At the same time, the global medical costs of treating the consequences of obesity are staggering and expected to rise to $1.2 trillion annually by 2025. Good nutrition is central to tackling obesity and to building healthier, more resilient populations that are better equipped against Covid-19 and future pandemics.

SOURCES – World Population Review, World Obesity, Lancet, CDC, Worldometers
Written by Brian Wang,

39 thoughts on “Six Million Official Global and 18 Million Excess COVID Deaths”

  1. If the politicians – Macron, Merkel & VDL not knocked AZ vaccine millions of lives could have been saved

  2. That's why I say we have no hope for change except by force. This country has been taken over by corrupt politicians for over 45 years. Everyone one that in government from the past 45 years has baggage. They all need to be put on trial and investigated.i do home work ….. .

  3. That doesn't matter if you can't get stuff from A to B. China doesn't have a navy that can go out and "take" resources nor protect their own global shipping.

  4. You underestimate the desire of the Chinese to get countries to favor them over the EU, the US and Russia. Anything for long-term access to resources and UN votes.

  5. “Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”

  6. Yes, people in Mississippi are more likely to be obese, less likely to get vaccinated, less likely to wear seatbelts, and less likely to look both ways when crossing the street. The South shall fall again!

  7. Even if China had enough reserves they won't share. The fact is that China's food supply depends on imports. If imports (fuel, fertilizer, grain) stop for any reason it is only a matter of time until starvation starts. ed: clarity

  8. Loved the map… Brazil, Mexico and Canada, Germany, Spain and Germany, China and India, all divided by states/ provinces

    What i miss in the article however is a ranking of highest differences between official covid numbers and excess deaths covid numbers.

    It seems to me that Brazil and USA oficiais numbers do not differ greatly from these statistics.

    Russia and India in the other hand…

  9. It seems like only yesterday that this ostensible "unimaginable world war-like catastrophe" was characterized as no worse than the yearly flu. Perhaps future revisionism will be able to re-characterize this event to ease the conscience of the cheerleaders who worked everyday to helped make it as bad as possible.

  10. I agree with you but some crops would benefit from modest layering, as there is space between plants and/or lots of light gets through to the ground currently. Strawberries are a good example. For whatever reason the plants are always spaced. That suggests that the same acreage might be able to support three levels of strawberries.
    I am not talking some elaborate building, it would probably still only be 5 feet total.

  11. Every sewage treatment plant in the US should routinely test for viruses and concerning bacteria. And there should be a way to quickly track it back to a city block or so, if something does appear.
    And people don't like it but better for the CDC to have the power and the policy to truly quarantine at the very beginning of an outbreak. A major inconvenience for a few weeks for 0.0001% of the population, vs a prolonged inconvenience of masks and many other measures, inevitable failure, and 2+ years of disruption.
    We also need to be able to truly quarantine people that come in on airlines or ships. We need facilities to do this. We have a lot of military basses, I think it makes sense to build some facilities on these bases to accommodate these quarantined people. Basses are already secure, and already prepare food and such.
    We need better standards for buildings like office buildings, stores, schools, churches, exercise centers, restaurants, prisons, asylums, and elder care facilities for air purity and sanitation. We need air processing to work rapidly and well. And we need similar systems in city buses, trains and trolleys. Reducing the spread of all the contagious viruses should also make it easier to recognize something new. And can do nothing but improve productivity. And there are the obvious things like being able to make vaccines fast, and developing broad acting antivirals like DRACO (double-stranded RNA activated caspase oligomerizer).

  12. Stealth omicron has already surged in Europe. Countries up 30-80% over prior week. Riding for last two or three weeks. Z as CDC counts US over 965k

  13. When most of your population is above normal, then it's not exactly normal is it?

    Call it ideal, or healthy, or something.

  14. Vertical farming is much more vulnerable to disruption and war than flat, relatively indestructible, plains.

  15. "Countries can no longer afford to neglect the global nutrition crisis that has led to the obesity pandemic." What evidence is there for a "global nutrition crisis" other than circular arguments?
    I think it is more likely the spread of Adenoviruses 5, 36, and 37 have caused obesity. And to some extent staph has caused many cases of Diabetes.
    Obesity is not the leading comorbidity either, high blood pressure is. And I think lead exposure has a large role in that.
    Citizens of the US often try and even succeed in following much of the advise they have been given. For example, high fructose corn syrup was villainized, so over the last 20 or so years Americans have cut that consumption half. What did that achieve? Nothing. Rates of obesity and diabetes climbed further. Other advise like wearing sunscreen when outdoors has probably lead to chronic vitamin D deficiency, and ironically likely increased cancer rates because the chemicals in the sunscreens have not be tested adequately because it was believed they don't enter the blood stream, yet it is been demonstrated that they do. Then there is the advise to not to use table salt. That is almost certainly causing low levels of iodine in millions of Americans, as they shunned iodized salt.
    Nah, the main thing that is wrong with our food is that it is cooked too fast at very high temperature in a factory or blended at very high speed in machines. Both of these are causing the creation of copious quantities of AGEs.

  16. If 946,000 as of March 15, 2022, I don't think there will be 1 million 40 days later. It is dropping.
    Actual deaths by Covid-19 in the US is almost certainly well over 1 million already, but as they count it, it may take several months, if ever, to reach 1 million.
    I think it would take another surge, another variant to reach 1 million in 40 days. And I am hoping "stealth" is not different enough to surge.
    I also think we may finally be approaching heard immunity, with pretty decent numbers of vaccinated, and having had 81,350,883 cases (actually probably double that). Some States are slacking on vaccinations, but they tend to be the ones that were most pummeled in recent months by the virus, and thus immunity gained from that…for the ones that did not die. Covid-19 vaccination was the biggest "common sense quotient" test ever conducted in my opinion. And way too many of us flunked.

  17. Excess deaths is a good estimator for covid19 and covid19-related deaths.

    It's basically the main culprit to blame for them in this period.

  18. Enormous excess deaths is incompatible with theory of a mass over-reporting of deaths from Covid. Unless there was some other virus that acted like Covid-19, that killed lots of people.

    If you have to make up wacky stuff to account for the large number of deaths, that is not skepticism, that is motivated ego preservation.

    Skepticism does not tenaciously hold to a position of knowledge. Skepticism withholds judgment until such time as data supports or refutes a position.

  19. Can you quote who stood around claiming it was nothing? I would really like to see who said it was nothing in January and February of 2020.

  20. 1. China? At least in the initial outbreak, I think there was a substantial but not absurd under-reporting of both infections and deaths. Later? Probably not much. They got serious about it and did shut it down. Stopping the infection would not have been possible had the numbers been in the millions. Recently? No, I think they had a rise in cases and not just in the last few weeks. I think they have been losing control over the last 2-3 months. Only, after it was too big to hide was there some small admission. The origins? I do think it was the fish market. There is good evidence pointing to one area in the market. The vendor sold a variety of live animals, but "raccoon dogs" are likely. There is also evidence that these infection jumps were happening fairly frequently. Up to then, the diseases just died out quickly. My guess is that we have not found anything exactly like it because it mutated in a person with a weak immune system, probably killing that person.
    The Chinese countering attacks on lab blame by saying the virus came from a US military base? Shameful. Trump and Biden embracing the lab theory…also dubious, if not shameful.
    It is a human psychological bias to ascribe human incompetence or maliciousness to anything devastating that conceivably could have been set in motion by people. I know people who think like this perpetually.
    That said, I do think they killed Dr. Li Wenliang. He was 33 and not obese. Too convenient. Paranoid face-saving, likely.

  21. No conspiracy theory. Obesity rates in Mississippi are high. Covid is real and kills the elderly and obese.

    I just want honest, unbiased, real-world questions addressed. Why are people so afraid to answer some honest questions?

    Oh, that's right. Because unthinking people who accept whatever they are told (by people they want to be right) will attack those they disagree with.

    Why don't you compare Texas and Florida to New York and Michigan? Texas and Florida barely locked down at all. New York and Michigan locked down interminably. And Texas had almost 800,000 unvaccinated migrants dumped on them by the Biden administration. Why no mention of that in the reporting?

    Are you even intellectually honest enough to ask that?

  22. We also need a much swifter transition from test to treatment in vaccines.

    The protocols for validating a vaccine proved to be a big hurdle, even if these ones were actually incredibly fast for the usual standard of a decade between development and release.

    Yes, I'm not joking. Vaccines are usually a decade in the pipeline. Something that would had been useless for SARS-COV-2, seeing how fast it mutated into partially resistant strains. In 10 years it would have ravaged Earth quite a lot more before fading into the same herd immunity we have for other viruses.

  23. Those two countries are big wheat and crop sources for Asia and Africa.

    The Middle East by instance, is very susceptible to any raise in the price of wheat. Another Arab Spring is not impossible whenever people can no longer afford bread.

    The world at large is very susceptible to any raise of oil as well. So yes, the potential for it hitting the fan is considerable.

  24. Agreed, we should be proactive.
    But also we need to find experts other than the ones who have given us worthless advice that became "recommendations", which then became "mandates". There was never an opportunity to question their science, nor their motives for doing what they did.
    If you showed intellectual honesty or critical thinking anywhere along the process you were labeled a super-spreader, anti-science, etc.
    Because it's much easier to attack your enemies than prove them wrong.

    People all the time claim the Earth is flat, but the Media and government don't seek to destroy them.

  25. Vertical farming is the city dweller's reaction to realizing that cities are mortally dependent on food produced in regions that don't share their political leanings or culture. It's an effort to negate that vulnerability.

    Economically, it doesn't make sense, because land isn't in that short of supply, and the flux of sunlight limits agricultural production per square meter unless you provide artificial lighting, which requires enormous amounts of energy per person. Imagine if you added that energy to the energy already consumed by cities; How bad would the urban heat island effect become?

    Greater use of green houses makes a good deal more sense, at least for some crops, as a way of extending growing seasons, and increasing productivity. Less for grains like corn or wheat.

  26. The problem here, so far as I can see, is that China did see it coming. And then, realizing they were screwed, made damned sure it spread to the rest of the world before we were warned.

    Personally, I advocate that public health be handled more like meteorology: Massive distributed data collection. Place air filters in public places, especially ports and airports, feed the filtrate into gene sequencers, and notice when a new virus shows up and starts spreading.

    Start routinely sampling and sequencing any bug that's bad enough to cause somebody to seek medical attention, instead of handing the suffer a Z-pak and telling them to pick up some decongestant.

    We should NOT be blindsided when a new bug shows up. We SHOULD see it coming. But you can only see things coming if you LOOK.

  27. Civilization, in general, needs more advocacy for vertical farming. That's a different conversation, though, I suppose. Even so, it doesn't make up for the fact that murdering farmers makes farming impossible until those jobs can be back-filled. So, back to crops not being planted. >_<

  28. And surely the high rates of COVID in Mississippi is a liberal conspiracy against their southern heritage.

  29. This death count is going to pale when compared to the number of people that are going to starve and die because Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Crops wont be planted and when people realize this, the excrement will hit the rotary oscillator. North America will be fine, everyone else, not so much.

  30. Likely not, but the next time we see it coming, we don’t stand around for the first few months claiming ‘it’s nothing’ and ‘it’ll go away’. Proactive action required.

  31. What must never happen again? Never again lockdowns or never a pandemic? Not sure you could prevent another pandemic….

  32. I wish they would do a full study based on reasonable metrics.

    1. Does anyone truly believe China's reporting?
    2. I know how lethargic and overly cautious government servants are. The U.S. is bad. Other countries are worse. There have been no repercussions for over-reporting COVID deaths, but there were plenty of financial incentives to over-report.
    3. Still no studies on the difference of dying with COVID vs. dying primarily from the effects of COVID. Many governments incentivized classifying weak links to COVID as dying from COVID. I read through the entire article – although they give lip service to many things they aren't able to measure, they wouldn't even address this with a cursory sentence or two.
    4. Still no mention of the cumulative health problems associated with the lockdowns themselves. How many deaths so far, and even farther into the future, will the economic disruptions from the lockdowns produce? Supply chain deaths? Third world starvation caused by the lockdown disruptions vs. if we had simply masked and social distanced? How many bad decisions made out of anger and depression linked to the mandated isolation?
    5. Only a percentage of Public Health Officials are unbiased medical researchers. The vast majority are political figureheads with no epidemiological experience. This should cause a lot of skepticism regarding reporting figures and analysis.

    Let the downvoting begin!…

  33. An unimaginable world war-like catastrophe just a few years back.

    Everyone alive has been directly or indirectly affected by it. It must never happen again.

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