The CDC reports that as of Monday, March 21 the US has had a total of 971,422 and will add the Tuesday number today to get to about 972,400. The CDC data will report the US passing 1 million cumulative COVID cases in late April.
John Hopkins reports cumulative US COVID deaths at 973,213. This aligns with the CDC 971,411 figure for Monday data.
The University of Washington COVID forecasting model has been updated to 983,472 for July 1, 2022. The two forecasts made for 2022 for June 1, 2022 were both too low and were wrong within about two weeks after they were made.
Vox noted in May, 2002 that the IHME model was overly simplistic and wrong. The IHME model has been cited often by the White House and has informed its policymaking. But it may have led the administration astray: The IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out.
The IHME model will never be right unless COVID cases decline and stay down for the rest of their 100-day forecast. The US is about to experience another surge in daily cases and a modest increase in daily deaths from the spread of Omicron BA2. The BA2 variant already has been hitting Europe and there was another surge in cases. BA.2 is about 35% of COVID cases in some parts of the US.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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