Three extremely powerful change forces will drive combine to switch the global car market from 6% EV to 60-80% EV for new cars by 2025.
This sudden and rapid transformation will more than 10X Tesla while dooming other carmakers to death or irrelevance.
My video on this is available.
I had some prior videos on Tesla and LFP batteries and the chip supply.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Yes – Tesla is production limited, not demand limited, at least for now. That's part of my point. Tesla's production has on average grown around 40% to 50% a year over recent years. That's a doubling time of ~20 months if continued.
Production constrained really means financially constrained on how fast they can afford to build new factories. This year they'll have a production growth spike as the new factories come on line – but then they'll have to finance more factories to grow more.
Tesla Berlin took ~2 years from ground breaking to production. Austin is getting done a few months faster. Shanghai got built at the usual Chinese 'warp speed' in about a year. If another Chinese plant comes next, that'll be about 1.5 years on average to build each factory, with however many factories built in parallel. With some production ramp up time and an attempt to double the number of factories each 'generation', 50% a year production growth again makes sense.
TBD what the rest of the car industry can do in EVs. I'm still guessing they'll make a big push on converting to hybrid EVs with limited numbers of plug in hybrids and pure EVs – because they'll be battery limited in meeting demand for low and no fuel EV cars. They may also be motor production constrained, since that'll also require new factories to meet demand – which would constrain how fast they can shift even to simple hybrids.
Maybe they should be investigated first, then put on trial. Maybe your homework should cover how "due process" works.
Tesla's orders are triple the rate of production. Producing about 330k this quarter globally. Demand rate is about 1 million per quarter. High gas prices and $47k average new car price, makes it easy for quality EV to be the better choice for all cars $45k+ in europe and North America. 60% of car market goes higher-end EV still better and more affordable than ICE cars. High gas prices ($6 per gallon plus) means driving 15000 miles with 30 mpg is 500 gallons per year times $6 or $3000 for gas. Driving 30000 miles is 1000 gallons at $6000 per year. Plus oil changes and other factors. $500 to charge an EV. 4 years, $8000 less cost to fuel for 15000 miles per year. Over 4 years, $14000 less to fuel for high mileage drivers.
Also Olivia Smith. See below.
OK Mrs. Roboto, so you're saying in 1976 all the politicians were fine but in 1977 they all became corrupt and should be on trial?
Why not show us what you mean? And no, I'm not going to your website.
Yeah I hope musk has a Gault plan if the CCP takes his plant, then again, electric is a leading edge of tech sector, so without teslas engineering and innovation, I doubt they’d be able to compete on a level footing for long.
Somewhat agree/disagree.
While public transit will sky rocket, you will never stop the convience of having your own clean personal vehicle that is yours where you want it in the condition you left it.
That said modern American families today tend to have 2+ cars (especially when kids are old enough to drive)
But with self driving they can nix one or more excess cars from their driveway, dropping the number of privately owned vehicles.
So yes I think you will see an explosion of public transport and a decline of private.
But private vehicles will still be the preference for the majority.
Sign by the Sarlacc: "Sorry: This Sarlacc emergency slow-digestion facility is currently full due to the on-going Covid medical emergency. Please try another Sarlacc or self-digest at home."
Having ridden a few ebikes, I think you've got that exactly backwards. Where ebikes make the most difference is going uphill. On the flat you don't need the motor at all.
And speaking to people in the Netherlands about biking, they say what stops them is northern European weather, which isn't be addressed at all (except, maybe, by global warming itself.)
The Dutch were jealous because I get to cycle to work along the side of a canal and they don't.
So only to be used for emergencies then.
"Oh no! Leia is badly wounded and is going to die. She's going to last an hour or two at the most. But we won't be able to get her to advanced medical facilities with 13 star destroyers in orbit besieging the planet!!! "
"OK, throw her in the Sarlacc. That gives us 1000 years to come back and rescue her with advanced medical lab on hand."
That's a great idea in the Netherlands; not so great in Switzerland.
Yes – but no internet…
The cheaper way to do it is to just build bike lanes and get everyone riding eBikes
It is when not if all cars become EV. That said, one limiting factor which will slow this down is the new electrical generating capacity needed for all of these EVs.
Might be a bit of a setback if TESLA loses Shanghai – this is not a zero probability event as they say.
I think you nailed it. Your analysis of LiFePO battery production that’s already baked in for the next 3+ years of growth especially in China is the hard foundation to a critical production projection that’s otherwise squishy.
This can be combined with very high probability that Tesla L4 autonomy will succeed dramatically and also be the basis of an S curve.
This is similar to the situation with SpaceX/Starlink/Starship where Musk has causally over determined the result.
These insights deserved the full video presentation treatment you gave them.
It’s amusing that people seem so convinced by these projections that assume the rest of the infrastructure stays the same. You are correct – unless mining, trucking, railroads, grid etc are also converted to battery electric and zero emission, which of course they are in parallel.
I don't know if Tesla can double for 3 years. Maybe 1.5x average to get up around 7-8M cars and cybertrucks by 2025. To get much beyond that they will eventually have to offer a lower priced vehicle OR truly convince the world to shift over to self-driving taxis.
I'd find the latter (taxis) a lot more exciting, but they'll have to get at least level 4 approval for their cars to drive around empty to pick up passengers. They might be able to get by with level 3 with passengers – i.e. requiring an attentive licensed driver in the driver's seat. That also avoids some of the crazier problem scenarios, such as people putting little kids in a car alone to deliver them to school, or sleeping while driving around.
That digested over a 1000 years has always implied that you'll live 10x as long inside a Sarlacc than otherwise.
Looking forward to watching this in the morning!
Lol zing!!!! So dark, I like haha! ^_^ <333 I live in an irradiation zone so if my city got hit I'd get the slow cooker experience. Kinda like being in the Sarlacc pit. "…slowly digested over… a thousand years… oh dear…"
Funding has been raised. Bank and State funds provided for dozens of battery factories. Mining and supply chain contracts and sourcing acquired. Battery factories are under construction. They have contracts from buyers.
https://cnevpost.com/2021/12/09/svolt-energy-nearly-doubles-its-battery-capacity-target-to-600-gwh-by-2025/
Svolt Chairman and CEO Yang Hongxin said at the company's second Battery Day event that the total global demand for lithium batteries for transportation electrification and energy storage will exceed 1.8 TWh by 2025, and that the company aims to capture 25% of the global market share.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/01/06/catl-takes-aim-for-a-230-gwh-production-capacity-for-2021/
CATL wants to massively expand its production capacities for battery cells, to 230 GWh this year and to 1,200 GWh in 2025. In parallel, the Chinese battery manufacturer is aiming to expand to Japan, Indonesia, the USA and Europe.
The report came from the German business publication Handelsblatt on CATL’s plans. According to a chart in the publication, CATL wants to increase its production capacity between 2020 and 2025 in the following stages: 110 GWh (2020), 230 GWh (2021), 380 GWh (2022), 540 GWh (2023), 830 GWh (2024) and 1,200 GWh (2025).
I liked the nuclear weapons program they did in the 1940s 😉
So it won't save oil, unless mining equipment is converted to electric or compressed gas or something.
It does insulate you from oil price fluctuations though, the oil used in mining is locked in at a given price.
Once you've bought the EV, your energy is coming from coal, nuclear, or solar/wind, all of which are not controlled by unstable geopolitics and so are safe, reliable, and should stay cheap.
Manhattan institute….surely you jest, hilarious.
Interesting conclusions, thank you for the vid.
Tesla is a huge econ force for change, I hope that they continue.
If you've already addressed this question, I do apologize, I have a hard time hearing:
And updates about how will this increase in EV production effect the power grid, stability of transmission and production of electricity?
The eventual switch over from individually owned cars for everyday transport to a leased, on demand type system…that I think will happen very quickly as well.
Please continue your website, I've been reading you since the 'Convergence' conference.
This is literally impossible, and that's just to make the batteries:
"Replacing hydrocarbons with green machines under current plans—never mind aspirations for far greater expansion—will vastly increase the mining of various critical minerals around the world. For example, a single electric car battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing some 500,000 pounds of materials. Averaged over a battery’s life, each mile of driving an electric car “consumes” five pounds of earth. Using an internal combustion engine consumes about 0.2 pounds of liquids per mile."
All of that material is dug out of the ground pre-processed and hauled by… diesel engines. It's then processed by… electric power plants, which run mostly off of… Hydrocarbons.
Everything else about the "green revolution" is debunked here:
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check