Tesla Gets 40-50% Market Share in Competing EV Categories

There were about 2.5 million EVs out of 4.6 million are in a similar category as Tesla. EVs that are over $25k in price. Traditional ICE cars are segmented into various size, truck and price categories. The EV market needs to have category segmentation for meaningful analysis. China had 1.1 million EVs out of 2.75 million that were similar category as Tesla vehicles. Tesla would have 37% of the market for EVs over $25,000 in price and 50% of the market for EVs over $30,000 in price. Tesla has over 60% market share in the US. Tesla could maintain 40-50% market share. Tesla could get this in all segments where they choose to compete. Tesla is or will be choosing to compete in the mid-range and above for sedans, compact, compact SUV, SUV, Trucks, Semi and Vans.

If we tighten up the classification of a Tesla competitor to those that are over $30000 then the true competitors are VW, Ford, Nio, Hyundia/Kia, some high-end Xpeng and WM Motors.

China had 2.75 million units of passenger BEVs sold annually compared to 600,000 units of PHEV sold.

Europe had 1.2 million BEV sales in 2021. There were 1.03 million PHEV sales in Europe in 2021.

BYD sold over $20,000 BEV. Nio had starting prices of about $50000 but could go as low as $40000 with a battery as a service model.

Tesla 936000 (China, US and Europe)
Volkswagen Group: 451,131 (mainly Europe)
BYD: 323,143 (China)
Hyundai: 216,562 (mainly Europe and US, 120k Hyundia and 100k Kia)
GAC Aion 123,660 (china, about $25000 sedans)
Xpeng 98,155 (china, prices start at $25000)
Nio 91,429 (china, prices start at $50000)
Ford Mach E 50,000 (about 24000 in US and 22000 in Europe)
GM 30,000 (bolts all recalled)
WM Motor 44,157 (china $25k-50k EV)
Leap Motor 43,121 (china $20-30k EV)


Brand	December	Total (w PHEV)  BEV Only
BYD*	92,823	         593,745	1
Tesla	70,847	473,078	2
Hongguang Mini EV	**	approx. 400,000	3
Ora	20,926	135,028	4  (some higher en
GAC Aion	16,675	123,660	5
Geely*	18,813	100,126	6
Xpeng	16,000	98,155	7
Nio	10,489	91,429	8
Volkswagen (MEB)	13,747	70,625	9
Neta Automobile	10,127	69,674	10  (about $12000)
WM Motor	5,062	44,157	11  ($25k-50k EV)
Leap Motor	7,807	43,121	12 ($20-30k EV)
Sokon*	6,150	41,440	13
BAIC*	4,198	26,127	14
Voyah***	3,330	6,791	15
Zeekr****	3,796	6,007	16