Tesla Gets 40-50% Market Share in Competing EV Categories

There were about 2.5 million EVs out of 4.6 million are in a similar category as Tesla. EVs that are over $25k in price. Traditional ICE cars are segmented into various size, truck and price categories. The EV market needs to have category segmentation for meaningful analysis. China had 1.1 million EVs out of 2.75 million that were similar category as Tesla vehicles. Tesla would have 37% of the market for EVs over $25,000 in price and 50% of the market for EVs over $30,000 in price. Tesla has over 60% market share in the US. Tesla could maintain 40-50% market share. Tesla could get this in all segments where they choose to compete. Tesla is or will be choosing to compete in the mid-range and above for sedans, compact, compact SUV, SUV, Trucks, Semi and Vans.

If we tighten up the classification of a Tesla competitor to those that are over $30000 then the true competitors are VW, Ford, Nio, Hyundia/Kia, some high-end Xpeng and WM Motors.

China had 2.75 million units of passenger BEVs sold annually compared to 600,000 units of PHEV sold.

Europe had 1.2 million BEV sales in 2021. There were 1.03 million PHEV sales in Europe in 2021.

BYD sold over $20,000 BEV. Nio had starting prices of about $50000 but could go as low as $40000 with a battery as a service model.

Tesla 936000 (China, US and Europe)
Volkswagen Group: 451,131 (mainly Europe)
BYD: 323,143 (China)
Hyundai: 216,562 (mainly Europe and US, 120k Hyundia and 100k Kia)
GAC Aion 123,660 (china, about $25000 sedans)
Xpeng 98,155 (china, prices start at $25000)
Nio 91,429 (china, prices start at $50000)
Ford Mach E 50,000 (about 24000 in US and 22000 in Europe)
GM 30,000 (bolts all recalled)
WM Motor 44,157 (china $25k-50k EV)
Leap Motor 43,121 (china $20-30k EV)

Brand	December	Total (w PHEV)  BEV Only
BYD*	92,823	         593,745	1
Tesla	70,847	473,078	2
Hongguang Mini EV	**	approx. 400,000	3
Ora	20,926	135,028	4  (some higher en
GAC Aion	16,675	123,660	5
Geely*	18,813	100,126	6
Xpeng	16,000	98,155	7
Nio	10,489	91,429	8
Volkswagen (MEB)	13,747	70,625	9
Neta Automobile	10,127	69,674	10  (about $12000)
WM Motor	5,062	44,157	11  ($25k-50k EV)
Leap Motor	7,807	43,121	12 ($20-30k EV)
Sokon*	6,150	41,440	13
BAIC*	4,198	26,127	14
Voyah***	3,330	6,791	15
Zeekr****	3,796	6,007	16

12 thoughts on “Tesla Gets 40-50% Market Share in Competing EV Categories”

  1. Kudos for Elon and Starlink and the help it has been in killing thousands of Russian invaders, we need Jo Biden,the damp sock puppet, to step up his arm Urkraine game.

  2. The Toyota bZ4X is to go on sale this year. It does not meet the specs of the model Y, but the sticker price is around half that of Y . I expect it will be oversubscribed.
    Toyota has the capital, to expand production of BEVs quickly, a reputation for quality of design, and manufacture, and good customer service sorely lacking in Tesla.
    There will be a 1 milllion km 70% battery guarantee, and reportedly solid state batteries will be offered for it in a few years.

    If it is as advertised, the bZ4X will soon become a top seller.

  3. Musk rushed out and made a long term agreement to get Canadian Nickel. He is thinking ahead. There will be a lot of new electric car companies that cannot manufacture because they cannot get critical minerals.

  4. Yes,Putin will pour more into the mat grinder,Biden is doing a very poor job of arming the Urkrainians he is supposed to give them a list of US weapons and ask how many?
    The dems will feel voters wrath.Selling oil we were saving for an emergency ,disgraceful.

  5. Tesla builds the 3 and the Y that's it, everybody else makes everything else,Tesla built 965K out of 80 million? Doesn't sound that large to mean van, no truck, no sports car, none of the cars GM is building like Blaser and Equinox or Lyriq.
    In 6 days GM factories again produce the Bolt and Bolt EUV while Tesla ceased operations in China.

  6. Elio was never going to be electric, and it was not going to use light materials.
    Look at Aptera. Their goal is a $25,000 car, that you don't have to pay to charge. https://aptera.us/vehicle/
    Okay, make that $25,900. The price will probably go up a couple more times before they start producing.
    Design-wise I like the original Nissan BladeGlider. https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/ZEROEMISSION/HISTORY/BLADEGLIDER/
    The nose needs a redesign, and it needs a rain cover of some kind. But I love the cockpit and the look from above.
    They did make a second iteration. Whoever did that had no taste.

    I think there is definitely a market for a light electric buggy, for on and off road. If you go light, you don't need much battery. I think blending aspects of the Aptera and a traditional dune buggy like this: https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1971-california-clipper-dune-buggy/
    and the X-Prize winning, Very Light Car: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Very_Light_Car
    could produce a compelling vehicle. Maybe just 200 miles range, to keep the price down.

    2-seats, one in front of the other, extreme aerodynamics, 4-wheels, solar charging, small battery, electric, fully enclosed, is a good formula for a low priced, low operating cost, fun vehicle.

    Not the crazy low price Elio was claiming, but maybe $15,000 – $17,000 is possible?

  7. Whimsy. I wish Musk would make an "Elio". But a giga-pressed body, Iron LFP batteries, and such. First-world safety, third-world prices. Teen's first car, commuter, retiree-putter-around-transport, a North American Beetle/Volkswagen. It IS his money, and he can and should do what he wants with it. Also wish there'd be more like him tackling other issues…
    With all his Mars hopes, I'm surprised he isn't into greenhouses, too. Marsies gotta eat something. Might be helpful for those of us who are staying behind on Terra. Oh, and Kyle Hill's nuclear power stuff.

  8. ..But if you were able to look at a year by year basis, this figures per share are also coming down for sure….

  9. Bev is battery electric vehicle. Phev are plug in hybrid vehicles. Phev have batteries and a combustion engine. They are like Prius where it can be plugged in so they can get say 30-80 miles of range per day before using the gas engine.

  10. Please define things like BEV and PHEV for people like myself that ate not common users if these terms.

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