When Will Russia Run Out of Soldiers? Tanks?

There are estimates that Russia has lost 40,000 soldiers (killed or wounded) out of 190,000 after the first three weeks of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has 900,000 in the military but this includes Navy and Air Force. Russia has about 250,000-300,000 in the Army. Russia has 2 million in reserve but those are mostly x-conscripts and 14 million men of military age (18-30).

Independent UK and many other sources cite a senior NATO official estimate of up to 40000 Russian Casualties.

NATO and US estimates of 7000 to 15000 Russian war dead. (via AP).

According to Oryx, as of March 23, 2022, Russia has lost somewhere in the region of 279 tanks, of which 116 have been destroyed, 4 damaged, 41 abandoned. Some 118 have been captured. (via interesting engineering and other sources.

Putting more untrained people into this conflict will just get most of them killed. One of the Russian problems is the poor training of its military. The other aspect is that the death and wounded rates could go up if Russia commits to major urban warfare. If the supply line situation is as bad as some reports indicate then the 70,000 soldiers in the north could run out of ammo and food and collapse. This would mean a lot killed, wounded and captured.

Russia started the war with 1200 Tanks committed to the conflict. Russia had about 2800 active tanks. They had about 10,000 Soviet-era tanks in storage. Those tanks in storage were not modernized and are even more crappy that what Russia has been losing. Russia has lost 270-500 tanks already. All of Russia’s tanks are vulnerable to Javelin missiles. There are 17000 Javelin missiles in the Ukrainian army now.

Russia has lost 100 planes and Russian pilots are flying very defensively. They are trying to avoid getting shotdown instead of focusing on military objectives.

Putin/Russia should already cut a peace deal and withdraw. Losing the northern Army (70,000) would be an even greater catastrophe. Going into Kyiv or any other major city in urban combat would also ratchet up the losses.

It took Russia twenty years to make 2800 modern tanks.

The current pace of losses cannot be sustained for more than two more months. Four more weeks of losses at this pace is devastating as half of the soldiers they went in with would be injured or dead. Russia is already digging into defensive positions. Unless there is a significant improvement in strategy and tactics there is no way that even with 50,000 or 100,000 new conscripts or other force replacements would a second offensive be effective in taking Kyiv or other major Ukrainian cities.

It is even difficult to see how Putin/Russia could sustain a campaign with annual losses like the first month of this war.

Historical and Other Comparisons

The Ukraine War is different from WW2 in several ways. The Soviets lost 5 million men twice by getting almost all of their army wiped out by the Germans in encirclements. The Soviet army fought a retreating war as they get factories set up in Siberia and rebuilt tanks and trucks and weapons with support from US lend/lease.

In WW2 the Soviet Army (included Russia, Ukraine and several other countries) perceived the war as an existential war. Russia is now attacking Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian people share a common ancestry. The people are as close as Canada and the USA.

The total population of the Soviet Union in 1941 was 195 million people and fell to about 170 million in 1946 due to the devastation of the WW2. The current population of Russia is about 140 to 146 million. The population numbers could be inflated. The average age in Russia is now 40.

Not only did the USSR’s population fall as a consequence of the war, but fertility and birth rates also dropped due to the disruption. Hypothetical estimates suggest that, had the war not happened and had fertility rates remained on their pre-war trajectory, then the USSR’s population in 1946 would have been 39 million higher than in reality. The Soviet male population fell from 94 million in 1941, to 74 million in 1946, and the female population fell from 102 to 96 million. The male and female populations fell by 19 and 5 million. Hypothetical estimates suggest that both populations would have grown by seven million each had there been no WW2.

The Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers was created in the 1980s during the Russian Afghanistan War (under Gorbachev). The grieving mothers rebelled when there were 15000 soldier deaths. There are current reports that there are already 15,000 Russian soldier deaths.

Russia’s fertility rate fell to about 1.2 after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Most military-age men in Russia are only children.

There is no way the Russian population will accept anything like the military mobilization under Stalin. Russia is losing people faster than Ukraine and Russia will run out of the effective population to mobilize before Ukraine. Raising secondary forces and reserves will be far less effective than even the current poor showing. A wood chipper will not lose when you toss more wood into it.

The US had 7000 deaths in the combined Afghanistan-Iraq wars over twenty years.
The US had 47000 deaths in the Vietnam War over twenty years.
The US had 33000 deaths in the Korean War.
The US had 53000 deaths in WW1.
The US had 291000 deaths in WW2.

In WW1, Russian Empire lost 1,811,000 total Russian Empire military and 1,500,00 civilian deaths according to Soviet demographer Boris Urlanis. Russian Empire included Ukraine and a lot of other countries.
WW1 Russian Empire Populatiopn by modern countries
Russia 67,476,000 (from this Siberia 5,758,822)
Ukraine 23,430,407 (from this Crimea 1,447,790)
Poland (Vistula basin) 9,402,253
Belarus 6,927,040
Kazakhstan 4,000,000
Lithuania 3,135,771
Georgia 2,109,273
Uzbekistan 2,000,000
Moldova 1,935,412
Latvia 1,929,387
Azerbaijan 1,705,131
Estonia 900,000
Armenia 797,853
Kyrgyzstan 750,000
Tajikistan 646,000
Turkmenistan 350,000

SOURCES- Wikipedia, Brian Wang analysis, AP, Independent, CBS News, Interesting Engineering, Oryx, NATO
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

99 thoughts on “When Will Russia Run Out of Soldiers? Tanks?”

  1. There's a weakness in the logic being used in the claim that Russia is holding back: Not only have they not used their limited bomber force on civilian targets, they've also hit relatively few military targets. Why? Is it due to Putin being a fool, or is it due to most of their small bomber fleet (like the propeller driven TU95) being too vulnerable to use free fall bombs over Ukraine and due to Russia having a limited supply of more sophisticated weapons? Where they've been able to use cheap and available artillery ammunition they don't appear to have held back, there are though reports that they've now used up their newer artillery ammunition and are dipping into old Soviet ammunition.
    Comparing the rate of use of sophisticated missiles by America in the Gulf overlooks just how many the US had available.

  2. This is esp stupid if you define things like "war" as not applying to what you(Putin) does, or has splitting off territory as allowed, for you. Then when these defs are used against you, you will squeal like a pig(Putin). All neurotic mentally ill Prideful power addicts are the same.

  3. So you believe these numbers? NATO would never lie about inflating the ACTUAL NUMBERS now would they….

  4. Clearly the Russian vehicles are not up to the task. The personnel may not be either, but I'm going to concentrate on the vehicles.
    Maintaining military vehicles is super expensive. Wars even moreso. They're finding you can't cheap out on maint. The scale is misleading. Ukraine is pretty far from Moscow. Russia doesn't have global reach.
    Even good equipment is at risk from IED's and shoulder rockets. You can't just park tanks on the sides of the highway and expect them to be safe.
    Nor do I believe this is Russia's dregs, with the super troops coming in the next wave. I think this is as good as it gets for Russ. They have culminated already. They are broken and looking for the exit door.

    If anything, I think China may be learning a lot about how not to invade from the Russians.

  5. Trying to keep all things in context, and the misinfo to a minimum, waiting would of course give us the clearest picture.
    Russian casualties are high, but Ukrainian casualties are higher. This is to be expected when military attacks civilians. But this is a fight Ukraine has to win, but Russia doesn't, at least not the military. Ukraine will be more determined.
    There is no magic casualty count that will force Ukraine to stop fighting. But get the numbers high enough and Russia will have to withdraw.

  6. I'm not sure why the Russians need to destroy entire cities to "fight Nazis" in Ukraine. The Narrative is really weak, and doesn't match what I see with my lying eyes.
    I see images of Ukrainian civilians getting killed, and Russian vehicles getting destroyed and captured.
    I still haven't seen any images of Nazi headquarters being cleaned out by the noble Russians.

  7. If they are being told the war must end by Victory Day, then it is probably because, by Memorial Day, the Russian army's payroll will become a memory.

    Russia is the one trying to call up reserves (and more conscripts) and telling them to bring their own lunch (and breakfast, and dinner, and to bring enough for as many days as they can).

  8. And Iraq was a military dictatorship with a "million" man army. Ukraine's military had far fewer personnel and weapon stockpiles. Kiev should've been a piece of cake for a large modern army. This operation has ruined Russia's reputation as a military power.

  9. Any report about Italy (but I believe it is wide spread everywhere) kicking out university professors critics of the NATO and Western approach to the crisis?
    The cancellation of Tchaikovsky and other Russian art and literature.

    This is
    Covid-19 narrative
    Covid-19 mRNA vaccines narrative
    Ukraine War narrative.

    "You toe the government line or we break your spine."

  10. NATO and US sources are reliable as a Pfizer commercial.
    Why not do you tell us the drugs Pfizer is recalling because they contain carcinogenics?
    Pfizer tell us "no adverse effect was reported".
    OK, if it is carcinogenic maybe in ten years someone will tell.
    If they find a connection to the drug in question.

  11. "And the US and NATO have told Russia they would rather support Nazis than Russians. How does it feel to be duped into supporting neo-Nazis?"

    "far-right paramilitary" "Azov Regiment" "based in Mariupol"
    "unit of National Guard of Ukraine"

    fundamental nationalism, external influences (?)
    "The law also required TV and radio broadcasters to ensure at least 60% of programs such as news and analysis are in Ukrainian. The law entered into force on 9 November, the national day for Ukrainian Language and Literacy."
    "According to the Council of Europe, this act fails to achieve fair protection of the linguistic rights of minorities."

    "The new government was hand picked by Victoria Nuland. Some democracy!"
    "discussed who should join a unity government that they had agreed to with the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Nuland notified Pyatt that after the review of the three opposition candidates for the post of, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, US State Department had selected Arseniy Yatsenyuk."
    "A new currency, the hryvnia, was introduced in 1996. After 2000, the country enjoyed steady real economic growth averaging about seven percent annually."
    "As of 2020 it suffers from […] widespread corruption."
    corruption index rated worst on Continent, behind Russia
    V. Nuland
    "born to Ukrainian immigrants", "husband is a historian, [etc.], co-founder of neoconservative PNAC"

    there are unanswered questions, beside the mainstream interpretation of connected events (?)

  12. Another OSINT contributor tracked down photos of awards given posthumously. Russia has sequential serial numbers on most of the medals. From counting the serial numbers there's a pretty good estimate that Russia lost at least 4,800 soldiers in the first week of the war alone.

  13. Sweden has changed a lot in the past 1000 years. Less bearded axes and chainmail, more Eurovision and Volvos.
    Still, this news may not have filtered into the Kremlin yet.

  14. When I've heard the theory propounded, the 'who would they defend against' is made quite clear – everyone who has invaded the area multiple times in the past.

  15. Russia subsequently launched a new, full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, which Russian president Vladimir Putin said was intended to "protect" the people of the Donbas from the "abuse" and "genocide" of the Ukrainian government. There is no evidence to support Putin's claims.
    "According to the Economist, the passage of a law downgrading
    Russian in Ukraine could have helped "spark war in that country;
    Vladimir Putin has used it as evidence that Ukrainian nationalists are
    bent on wiping out Russian culture there." "

    According to the 2001 census, ethnic Ukrainians form 58% of the population of Luhansk Oblast and 56.9% of Donetsk Oblast. Ethnic Russians form the largest minority, accounting for 39% and 38.2% of the two oblasts respectively. Modern Donbas is a predominately Russophone region.
    According to the 2001 census, Russian is the main language of 74.9% of
    residents in Donetsk Oblast and 68.8% in Luhansk Oblast.
    The proportion of native Russian-speakers is higher than ethnic
    Russians because some ethnic Ukrainians and other nationalities also
    indicate Russian as their mother tongue.

    (Those Ukrainians who did move to the cities for work were quickly assimilated into the Russian-speaking worker class. [from 1897 Census paragraph] )
    _ what might explain a special situation within Mariupol district (and maybe other working class areas), from Russian point of view (foreign minister: "private property")?, (unintended) attacks on civilians are questionable

  16. According to the Russian Imperial Census of 1897, Ukrainians ("Little Russians",
    in the official imperial language) accounted for 52.4% of the population of the region, whilst ethnic Russians constituted 28.7%. Ethnic Greeks, Germans, Jews and Tatars also had a significant presence in the Donbas, particularly in the district of Miriupol, where they constituted 36.7% of the population. Despite this, Russians constituted the majority of the industrial workforce.

    In other parts of Ukraine during the 2000s, the Donbas was often
    perceived as having a "thug culture", as being a "Soviet cesspool", and
    as "backward".

    Maidan Revolution February 2014

    Annexiation|Referendum Crimea for Russian Federation

    April 2014 Russian-backed separatist forces

    Referendums on the status of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts on 11 May 2014
    (In the referendums, viewed as illegal by Ukraine and undemocratic by the international community, about 90% voted for the independence of the DPR and LPR.)

    August 2014, the Ukrainian "Anti-Terrorist Operation"

    5 September 2014: Minsk
    12 February 2015: Minsk II

    Ukrainian troops in Donbas, March 2015

    11 January 2017, the Ukrainian government approved a plan to reintegrate the occupied part of Donbas and its population into Ukraine
    (The plan would give Russian-backed political entities partial control of the electorate)

  17. And if he doesn't earn enough then he can strip some bark off of a tree, boil it and feast DPRK style.

  18. it's less about believing, it's for the record in history
    (as we recognize, measures that are compared fall apart within basic principles of "Western" justice)

  19. Economics in the U.S. should not have started "hydraulic fracking" gas, but renewable Hydrogen gas (and derivatives) instead, combined with water desalination industries. The ability for offering advanced energy options, within reasonable price lines, would be better now?

  20. for notice:
    "The foreign minister lashed out at this "sanctions spree", pointing
    out that it is becoming clear that all values that those in the West
    have been preaching to Russia, like freedom of expression, a market
    economy, the sanctity of private property and the presumption of
    innocence, are not worth a red cent.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24 launched a special
    military operation in Ukraine in response to a request for help from the
    Donbass republics. He said Moscow had no plans for an occupation of
    Ukraine. After that the United States, the European Union and Britain,
    as well as a number of other countries said they were imposing sanctions
    on Russian individuals and legal entities."

  21. There is an argument floating around that the shrinking Russian population was WHY the war was launched.
    Russia wanted to push their borders out to a series of mountain ranges and sea shores that would be much easier to defend in the decades ahead when they would have much smaller numbers. Ironically, making the country larger, makes the (vulnerable) borders smaller.
    Not explained in this story is who they thought they would need to defend against. It only makes sense if your neighbours are ruthless violent warmongers… like Russia.

  22. Loosing 10s of thousands of men and thousands of vehicles is all just part of the Russian master plan.

  23. I can't get real. I am a troll, remember, and also a bot…bot…bot… Sorry, got stuck in a loop. Clearly, being semi-surrounded by Russian military who are blowing up even civilians trying to escape cities, makes no difference to weapons and other supplies coming into those same cities and other military destinations.
    I'd wish the deserving Ukrainians well, but us trolls have no ability to wish. Oh well….

  24. Biden's Plan is to force Russia into having too much food and oil while the rest of the world goes without. Seriously. That is his plan.

  25. The war was over once it was clear that Putin stepped on his little wiener by invading Ukraine. No one will take Russia seriously after this disaster. The Ukrainians are getting stronger and smarter while the invaders are starting to dig holes to hide in. Good luck getting food this summer.

  26. scary. Why do the russian people not resist more?
    I can't imagine that the KGB or the new one can be as widespread now as 30 years ago.

  27. Actually, because Homo sapiens originated in Africa, the bulk of the human gene pool is in Africa. The rest of the world’s population are a relatively small subset with surprisingly little variation descended from the groups that migrated out of Africa.

  28. Good site! I may have to revise my opinion. The Russians have to have sizable loss of life. Probably a minimum of 3,000, and could easily be beyond the 4,000 max, I thought. Many of those vehicles were likely occupied when destroyed, probably with 3+ solders and there had to be a sizable number of people in other vehicles or on foot that have been shot. 40,000 is still an absurd number, but maybe 8,000 is not.
    And Ukraine now appears to have more tanks than it started with.

  29. No, their armored columns have NOT been "clearly trying". They've been sitting and waiting. Kiev is not a priority … yet. It is not a military target. And if the southern opening remains open, one might well ask how that benefits the Russians. Perhaps it is left open to allow civilians to evacuate.

    Whatever. Not relevant.

    Volodymyr Zelensky is this war's more professional, Western-media-assisted Baghdad Bob. And wow!, judging from the commenters here: "Mission Accomplished".

  30. Probably a British EDL troll. There is a whole generation of poorly educated British nationalists who have recenty discovered what they think is politics, and have been recruited via their mediocre soap opera social media by Kremlin-funded demagogues and putinbots. They are also constantly brainwashed and manipulated by media owning oligarchs, many of whom are also active in the USA. They are consiracy theorists, tacit Putin supporters, Dunning-Kruger sufferers and zealots. You can't debate with them, so don't bother trying.

  31. Considering the clear and proven stream of lies and false rhetoric pouring out of (and inside) Russia, it would be impossible to verify if anything Russia says is true or not.
    We only have Occams Razor, which suggests that if either side's account is liable to be true, it's not going to the Russians. It's not "objectively verifiable", but it's probably pretty accurate considering the data we have.

  32. The sub-replacement fertility rates is something I was thinking about.
    You don't launch massive offensive wars like this when you total fertility rate can't sustain it. Another reason this was beyond idiotic.

  33. Truth is the first casualty of war. You sound like you're totally swallowing every Ukrainian account (and Western account) unchallenged, while being reflexively skeptical of every Russian account. It's hard to find objectively verifiable sources.

  34. This Pravda source says Russia will end the war on Victory Day – May 9. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/24/7334270/ I haven't seen any other confirmation. In any case, it's hard to see how Ukraine can last that long without more imports of weapons, ammo, and heavy fighting equipment like tanks and even planes. Food and basic supplies are getting desperate in the south and east and there are reports Russia just entered the inner city of Mariupol and is firing rockets from there to the rest of the beleaguered city.
    Ukraine may still exist, but with wrecked cities, millions of refugees who can't return because there's no buildings, and permanently lost territory in Donetsk and the south, besides Crimea.

  35. In the 2003 invasion of Iraq Bagdad was taken by US troops on the 9th April, the air attack had started on the 20th March, so 20 days between the first attack and the capital being taken.

  36. They used heavier air power in Syria than this, and obliterated their opponents. Nobody was laughing at the Russian capabilities then. Anyway, I think the real problem with the Ukraine operation is that the war planning was kept secret and hidden from the bulk of the Russian military hiearchy, in order to preserve secrecy, and therefore proper vetting, critique and review was not done. So lessons are going to have to be learned from this, sure. As they say, "Soldiers win battles, politicians lose wars" — that's certainly happened to America more than once.

  37. I assume you're talking about large strategic bombers rather that fighter-bombers like the SU34 which is being used. Russia has just 16 operational strategic bombers – Tu-160's, I don't know for certain if they're being used but Ukraine has S300 SAM systems which would be pretty good at taking out Tu-160's given their designed operational altitudes – if they were used to drop bombs rather than the stand-off missiles that they're intended for – and likely have been using, but firing from Russian rather than Ukraine airspace.

  38. Russia is not using even a significant fraction of its military power. Look at the total absence of bombers, which US always uses in war. The Russians have seriously been holding back. If they unleash the real stuff, it'll be scorched earth really quickly.

  39. Africans are inbred, and the mixing of the little variety we have is beneficial. Basic biology. The health of a species is largely its diversity.

  40. Power addiction is the most dangerous addiction. As an addiction, it is at root self destructive. A cry for help. The Pride is the hilarious part!

  41. I doubt any of the numbers are remotely accurate. The claims of countries even the US, I don't think we can trust. I think we will just have to wait for the truth.
    I would be surprised if there were more than 3 or 4k Russian deaths. Even those should never have happened. Putin is contemptible for causing all this on both sides. This is a war that should never have happened. Just got too full of himself. Hopefully, people in Russia will put him in his place. And those tyrants in Belarus need to go as well.

  42. While it's bad enough that Russian tanks and vehicles are extremely vulnerable to modern AT weapons and Russian training is extremely poor, the major issue Russia is facing, IMO, is logistics. Here are the logistic challenges they're facing:

    -Old vehicles that were junk to start with
    -Junk tires most of which are dry rotted and falling apart
    -Most vehicle systems haven't been properly maintained (engine oil, transmission, etc.)
    -No Russian road repair or street sweeper vehicles have been seen thus forcing their trucks to drive over roads strewn with debris: frequent flat tires
    -Vehicles are running primarily ammo (heavy) and often operating beyond weight ratings

    *everything up to this point means just driving the vehicles makes you lose them to mechanical failure*

    -no secure communications and sometimes no communications period
    -ambushes using AT weapons
    -ambushes using simple rifles
    -IEDs and mines
    -partisans that will molotov your vehicle
    -partisans that will straight up steal your vehicle when you're not looking

    It's an absolute disaster.

  43. The sources of NATO and US references on dead and injured estimates were linked. The estimates are all over media . The analysis of how long this can last is just comparing demographics and scale of losses and history

  44. As much as I want to believe that Germany is pivoting to nuclear power and fulfilling their NATO obligations, i'll believe it when I see it.

  45. The slightly more precise question would be:

    "When will Russia have too few tanks/soldiers to hold the ground they have taken?"

    Because when they start losing ground, consolidating forces while withdrawing then things get pretty bad for the soldiers and for Putin and Ukrainians. It is possible that this is happening right now.

  46. I looked at the demographics, all of those countries are beating Russia. I hope your troll pay is inflation adjusted.

  47. I also thought @uknoitstru was talking about gays, that it was a reference to Russian phobias of westernization where apparently trans people are taking over (they certainly have more political influence than their numbers should justify).

  48. Why would anyone want to immigrate to Ukraine? Especially homosexuals? What's the attraction? Did all the homos use a dart to find Ukraine on a globe? Is that why they are globohomos? Frankly, you just sound silly. The homos are coming, the homos are coming. Jebus. Don't you know there's a war on?

  49. Have you noticed that Russia hasn't encircled Kyiv? We are in month #2 and they have yet to do that even though their armored columns clearly were trying.

  50. Why exactly are the "globohomos" going to Ukraine and why are they going to commit "genocide"? You do realize, this makes you look, at best, a bad troll and at worst, mentally questionable.

    Want to be the next Comedian President? Just FYI, you need better material.

  51. You mean birth rates? Did you not read the article?
    "Russia’s fertility rate fell to about 1.2 after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Most military-age men in Russia are only children."

  52. Dream scenario, Putin gets tipped out by military, military tell Russian people the truth, that Russia started an unjust war, Russia becomes the new post WW2 West Germany.

  53. If the West gets directly involved Putin will use it as propaganda to the Russian people, claiming the country needs defending, that Russia needs to go to war in its own defense. Better to leave Putin hanging on his own lie that it's not a war, a minor military operation on behalf of people in Ukraine, that way all of Russia will not commit to the conflict. For now Russia fights with Putin having tied one hand behind its back.

  54. Somebody described Russia as a gas station run by a mafia that is masquerading as a country. Violence and threats are how they do business.

  55. You'd better spend those rubles soon cause they're falling quicker than your мать can unbutton her overalls.

  56. Germany is starting to pivot towards a large arms buildup to defend against Putin and a ramp-up of nuclear power plant usage. (The Economist – March 19)

  57. Hated dictators have lived long lives throughout history,bombardment of cities by artillery is weapons of mass destruction.
    Yes everybody gets the same news, Russian forces have performed terribly but they still have Mariupol in a vise grip,I'm sure hundreds of civilians die daily,Joe Biden could save them, but I guess his message to European leaders is the same one every American president since Truman has given, start giving your military serious support,or this will happen to you, we had a treaty with Urkraine but we didn't feel like supporting them.

  58. So, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are running away, and as you would expect they are killed by various Russian forces. You are going to see mass emigration out of Russia.
    If we don't save the Urkrainians,as we promised we would, why save the Germans? They are the reason Russia got so strong,and their phobia of low Carbon nuclear power,is the reason Europe pays Russia so much money.
    We can move our bases from Germany to Poland ,the Polish are willing to fight for their freedom and welcome safe,clean nuclear,esp SMR's like NuScale.

  59. We have to thank Americans, because of them Russia has not yet won in Ukraine. In Trump was successfull in his coup he would continue to put his own people down and flatter the russian president like they are friends??And then Ukraine would fell in few days – Russians would capture almost all the weapons and got a lot of population under control to continue to invade,… Biden and his administration has helped Ukrainians more then we know. Intel, warnings, training, weapons,… Russians would win easily without american help in Ukraine. Of course Ukrainians have will to fight and resist but without American, Nato expertise, planning, training, intel, weapons, tactics,… They probably train Ukrainian pilots in Poland in their jets,…

  60. Russian president is like a drug, oil dealer, he made Europe dependent on russian oil, gas. Europe is still reluctant to stop importing russian oil, gas, because that would damage the economy too much. Russians were of course paying some western politicians in exchange for working in favour russian interests. You have german, austrian,.. politicians who have or now had well paid positions in Russian oil companies, or course it was not for free.

  61. Ukrainians are reporting today that they were able to push back Russian forces 35-70 km in some areas around Kiev. This has not reached Western outlets yet. Now it is either that Putin will resort to use of mass destruction weapons or that he will be taken down by his own people. I don't see him pulling back.

  62. Dream scenario:
    Russia gets beaten, Ukraine takes back Krimea. Afterwards, Europe and the USA start a massive Marshal plan for the Ukraine. Ukraine becomes an economic star with a strong defence so that Russian does not have a sliver of a chance to invade them again. Ukraine starts exporting oil and gas so that Europe do not need to buy from Russia any more.

  63. Even Russia itself has admitted to having lost over 10 000 men and having 14000 wounded.
    Without soviet level population and Army this is completely unsustainable. I don't see how Russia isn't going to escalate this. It's not going to end well.

  64. I would really like to see links to sources on this. Not doubting it, but can't really share it if it's not sourced.

  65. Hopefully Russia will win. If not the Ukrainian people will be genocided by globohomo mass immigration in a few generations anyway.

  66. An absolute tragedy.
    A broken military.
    A broken government.
    A broken system.
    A broken people.
    It is interesting to look back at how many of the 'losers' of previous major wars/ ideological conflicts bounced back with a renewed approach to their identity.
    With modern forms of business, communication, energy, transportation, etc., a re-freshed system could be created from the ashes of an unmotivated and poorly managed country.
    Germany – post WW1 – the Dawes Plan/ Versailles.
    Germany – post WW2 – Miracle on the Rhine
    Japan – post WW2 – economic and cultural reformation per keiretsu;
    Also, the UN assists with development and planning of lesser post-conflict recoveries, however, many of the cultural deficiencies remain, especially from 1990s Africa and 2000s central Asia.
    Of course, Vietnam and Korea floundered for decades but embraced industrialization without centralized control in the latter half of the 20th.
    Russia: So much land and resources that could be developed by an ingenious, free, and incentive-motivated people.

  67. US estimates 7000-15000 dead. WSJ estimated 40,000 dead or wounded. Even the 7000 losses in 3-4 weeks is unsustainable. This is again before major urban fighting. There are third party analysis of the tank losses at 270. What numbers are you suggesting are better?

  68. Do what you’re told to do, go where you’re told to go, kill who you’re told to kill otherwise you’re next.

    The decision for most is easy enougj

  69. Don't use ukranian data for loss estimation. It's a pure propaganda. Try to use numbers from independent sources.

  70. Between the beginning of WW1 in 1914 through the Russian Civil War through mass starvation and Stalin's purges and through WW2 ending in 1945 has any country lost that many people over a 31 year period? 40 million people perhaps?

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