Why Tesla Can Produce 4+ Million Cars per Year in 2023

Farzad Mesbahi, who used to work at Tesla, has some rough calculations of how the supply chain and Shanghai shutdown constrained impacted Tesla. He roughly estimates that Tesla could have produced 340k cars in Q1 2022 from only Shanghai and Fremont if there were no supply chain constraints.

He then doubles that amount to approximate what could be done with a ramped Austin and ramped Berlin factory combined with Shanghai and Berlin in 2023. Farzad did not include the Shanghai expansion which is going to double Tesla’s China capacity. This could add 1-1.2 million vehicles per year for Tesla in 2023 or 2024. This would mean that instead of Farzad’s calculation of 2.7 million cars per year in 2023 I would calculate about 4 million cars for Tesla in 2023.

There is also Tesla’s ability to further accelerate car production at all factories. Tesla increased the speed of production completion in China in 2021 from one Model Y every 2 minutes to one Model Y every 33 seconds.

Farzad and Dave lee have noted that Ford, GM, Toyota and Volkswagen are all down about 10-20% in car production in Q1 2022 versus Q1 2021.

SOURCES- Brian Wang analysis and Farzad Mesbahi video, Elon Musk tweet
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com