Farzad Mesbahi, who used to work at Tesla, has some rough calculations of how the supply chain and Shanghai shutdown constrained impacted Tesla. He roughly estimates that Tesla could have produced 340k cars in Q1 2022 from only Shanghai and Fremont if there were no supply chain constraints.
This was an *exceptionally* difficult quarter due to supply chain interruptions & China zero Covid policy.
Outstanding work by Tesla team & key suppliers saved the day.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2022
He then doubles that amount to approximate what could be done with a ramped Austin and ramped Berlin factory combined with Shanghai and Berlin in 2023. Farzad did not include the Shanghai expansion which is going to double Tesla’s China capacity. This could add 1-1.2 million vehicles per year for Tesla in 2023 or 2024. This would mean that instead of Farzad’s calculation of 2.7 million cars per year in 2023 I would calculate about 4 million cars for Tesla in 2023.
There is also Tesla’s ability to further accelerate car production at all factories. Tesla increased the speed of production completion in China in 2021 from one Model Y every 2 minutes to one Model Y every 33 seconds.
Farzad and Dave lee have noted that Ford, GM, Toyota and Volkswagen are all down about 10-20% in car production in Q1 2022 versus Q1 2021.
SOURCES- Brian Wang analysis and Farzad Mesbahi video, Elon Musk tweet
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Stock price is of course not directly correlated to performance… this is a growth stock and exponential growth is probably priced in / expected if you look at the current valuation and P/E.
War in Urkraine will stretch out for at least a year, sanctions on Russia will last indefinitelyly and could spread to China as they are also an aggressive dictatorship known for bad relations with every neighbor they are Russia's biggest supporter.
Only Tesla is yelping in pain about mineral prices, everyone else has long term contracts.
At some point Tesla will have to go into the battery business like GM already has with the Ultium system and their partnership with LG.
That's why I say we have no hope for change except by force. This country has been taken over by corrupt politicians for over 45 years. Everyone one that in government from the past 45 years has baggage. They all need to be put on trial and investigated.i do home work …. .
There were mentions that Tesla's deal with Vale for nickel is looking mighty prudent now too.
Best case $500b, if you use Apple as benchmark.
So, let’s say for arguments sake that Tesla sells 4M vehicles in 2023. At an average of $60k/vehicle that’s closing in on 1/4 $ trillion in sales.
Margins will still be somewhat unpredictable due to the many stages of factory completion and efficiency, but assuming 15% or $36B in profit, what should stock evaluation look like?
Yes, true. On a generally positive note, I feel the conflict in the Ukraine may be coming to a halt sooner rather than later. A general plus for the world in general in many regards.
Quite sure the need for other factories has already been loosely publicly discussed, maybe a few years ago when plans were made for China and Germany. Too lazy to search and pull up all the speculative interviews and articles on locations.
Even with this scaling to 4 million from the 4 existing GFs (including Shanghai expansion) in 2023, Tesla still needs to announce at least 4 new GF projects soon to keep scaling in 2024 and beyond.
When the Ukraine war put Russian minerals out of reach, Tesla immediately secured Canadian nickle for their vehicles. Now they can move forward. But everyone is may be out of luck.