The SpaceX Decade

Brian Wang explores what SpaceX will be achieving this decade. Brian is a SpaceX investor and is a member of angel investment groups including Space Angels and Allocations which each make many space investments.

The keys to the SpaceX decade will be the Super Heavy Starship and rapid reuse of it. The rapid reuse will need the Mechazilla catch and reuse launch tower. The massive factories and scale and frequency of launch will drive the Starlink communication into a multi-trillion business. A $3 trillion business will have 100 times the revenue compared to NASA’s annual budget.

Space enthusiasts knew that SpaceX and Elon were driving the future of space to speed up getting to the moon and Mars but making Space a huge part of the world economy is also part of the progress that will happen.

Space enthusiasts knew that SpaceX and Elon were driving the future of space to speed up getting to the moon and Mars but making Space a huge part of the world economy is also part of the progress that will happen.

Some of the Predictions

2024 SpaceX revenue more than NASA budget
2024 Reach 100+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.
First military payload point to point in 2023
2025 1000+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.

SpaceX Decade Summary-Keys to Huge Results
Super Heavy Starship
Mechazilla Catch and Relaunch
Mass Production
Starlink IPO
100X to 1000X Revenue
Gen 2 and 2+ Satellites
1000X to 1000000X Launches
10000X to 10 Million times payload
Moon Landings and Development
Orbital Development
Mars Landings and Development

Brian Wang has lectured at Singularity University and spoken at TEDX. He has been a speaker at various technology and business conferences. He was the keynote for an MJAA annual event. Brian has written over 30,000 articles on science and technology for his website Nextbigfuture.

Brian Wang:
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Brian has been interviewed by Warren Redlich and Emmet Peppers to discuss Tesla, EVs and batteries.

Brian is also an angel investor and fundraiser for tech companies. Brian worked for several years for a $50 billion corporation to create annual and quarterly enterprise reports, analysis and projections for the office of the CFO and board. Brian is head of research for the Allocations investment group.

Brian Wang is a top-ranking forecaster at the prediction site Metaculus.
Out of 218 resolved predictions, Brian was correct over 80% of the time.

36 thoughts on “The SpaceX Decade”

  1. I agree with you and MidwestSam that the USA probably is the only country in which Musk could have made as much progress as he has.

    I don't believe it is a sure thing that he will be permitted to continue.

    He needs enough strong allies in the right places to hold back the government efforts that are starting to be made to block him with lawsuits and regulatory barriers, and possible future laws narrowly aimed at his companies to impose punitive taxes or to outlaw activities crucial to his success.

    Please note that I'm not saying that Musk should be given a complete free hand to do whatever he wants. He and his companies should be subject to reasonable taxation and regulation. However, a lot of the articles I see about him sure seem to be advocating much more than that.

  2. earth is not going multi-habitat in this half of this milenium

    Millennium? You realize that's a thousand years, right? 500 years ago was Christopher Columbus and the final Fall of the Roman Empire. The major breakthroughs in transportation technology were the stirrup and the horse collar.

    How can you possibly be predicting what we can or cannot do over 500 years?

  3. Money is power, but it's not the only sort of power.
    In the paradigm that Keith is speaking from: political power may be necessary to hold back government agencies that would otherwise make SpaceX grind to a slow crawl.

  4. Internal problems are the hold up:

    Go to the space explored website and look at the internal damage to booster seven. Enough to make you cry.

  5. I agree that eu is a none sense for certain things, like a couple years ago to impose perfect vegetable shapes in the shops , I don’t care about it in my tummy

  6. Plan is for millions in ELEO by ~50-60, majority in cislunar by 2100, trillions later, depending on human factors. "The High Frontier" and Bezos. How long would it take current commercial jets to depopulate planet if they went to Space and brought only supplies back? Months, not years. Axiom experiments will tell why this traffic-micr0g industry, Space Solar, etc.

  7. Reality is Brazil, and Alcantara spaceport. There is a technology safeguard agreement in place that would allow SpaceX to launch from there without excessive ITAR headaches. Brazil is one of the better central/south american countries in terms of population and available technology/economy. It also has a military that won't be a cakewalk to suppress.

  8. Yep. The USA still is the Land of the Free.

    Where people can be whatever they want to be and where they have the least chance to be impeded by a plutocrat, a bureaucrat or a mafia boss.

    Anywhere else in the world people is not really that free, and they are paying the price in terms of innovation and social transformation capabilities.

    China itself, which was like the exception (a dictatorship with directed economy and economic success) is suffering again under the weight of central planning. Their main force for a while was its sheer population and the ability to plan great projects without bureaucratic nosiness, but that can only take them so far.

    The way of the future is for those free enough to dream and act upon whatever they want to be. My hunch is dictatorships will fail to take over the Solar System and later the universe and survive as such. They are the symptom of a neurotic parochial human behavior that can only survive at the local scale.

  9. what kind of orbital-insertion market share will really exist? top 100 – 200 space scientists and billionaires now -vs- the top 200 – 300 space scientists and few hundred billionaires in 20 – 30 years with Elon's most aggressive approach – maybe a few thousand LEO day-tripper tourists at a small-house-price per shot per year. There will not be orbital or lunar or mars 'cities' in the next 200+ years. A science outpost and sophisticated unmanned network of communcation and science probes within cislunar and possibly on any NEOs. This is all great – but earth is not going multi-habitat in this half of this milenium. Keep the hope but it will only ever be techno-vicarious travel.

  10. He's no Steve Jobs or even Bill Gates. It will be all about how fast competitors can take EV and orbit-insertion market share -5 – 10 years before they are the IBM, Panasonic, and Nokia of their industries — but should get whatever the business-equivalent of the Nobel Prize is for Initiative.

  11. Agreed. The idea of cost savings and tech optimization is widespread , so Elon isn't doing anything special. Interesting to know when the moment of inspiration met the moment of action to start this journey – wonder what his resume looks like pre-Tesla

  12. Well. In times of obvious technological stall (EVs, orbital/ lunar occupancy, poor traffic management…) the well-connected 'facilitator' can simply pull all the needed strings together. No collosal technological leap or momentous act of heroism. Right person. Right time – huge.

  13. He should stick to his core competencies. Only megalomaniacs crave to fix the entire world on their own terms – not a crime of itself, its just the drama becomes more important than the original substantial goal – to get to Mars and get EVs started. He will accomplish so much less in his original companies by sprawling throughout, whatever happens. Perhaps, he cannot stand to be out of the spotlight. Perhaps, he would rather go down (because we all do) in a blaze of glory than just competently fade away after 'just' kick-starting two huge industries – like a movie-star/ pro-athlete that just doesn't know their best times are behind. Oh well, mental illness is just so entertaining.

  14. Agreed. He's jump-started the industries, but each sector is too important to allow a lone vendor. either a large-multi, a conglomerate, an anti-trust lawsuit, or just a collapsed demand due to other economic forces will likely diminish those that try to fly too high. All glory is fleeting.

  15. Obviously, this risk is well known to Mr. Musk. It looks like he is trying to minimize the danger by making SpaceX indispensable to the US government by launching spy satellites, servicing the space station, and providing Starlink connectivity to the military. Additionally, there are probably many more areas, current and potential, for further integration.

  16. I find it amusing when people write about how "tough" Elon has it in the United States. The fact is, iconoclasts like him are always hated, no matter the time or place in which they live. Here's a thought exercise: In what other nation could he possibly have executed his dreams? South Africa (his birthplace) lacks the financial and technical infrastructure. If he'd tried to upset the rocket business in Russia, he'd be lying dead in the woods somewhere. If he lived in China, he'd either be dead by now, or in a "reeducation camp." If he'd tried building SpaceX or Tesla in Europe, he would have been strangled by red tape. Say what you will about the U.S., but one of its enduring strengths is its ability to find a place for men like Musk. If he's criticized, what of it? Consider it a badge of honor.

  17. I believe you can only invest indirectly via other companies that already have a stake, like Alphabet/Google. Musk will probably prefer to keep SpaceX private. A Starlink IPO is much more likely, however. Start saving your cash for that. In the meantime, buy Tesla very payday like I do. No matter what the price. 10x in 10 years minimum. NFA DYOR

  18. Oh yes. Because the US government has never invaded other countries on some pretense. I'm sure WMD will be found in Guiana and the Ecuadorians will need liberating.

  19. it seems like you believe that other powerful people will have more money to bribe people than Musk has.

  20. In the SF stories the genius inventor has to relocate to Mexico, Guiana (for ocean launch safety), or Ecuador (for equatorial and altitude boosts.) The US loses tax revenue, oversight, and control.
    We have not seen any indication that government functionaries understand this.

  21. Musk trajectory is upwards and onwards, much like SpaceX, but Sabotage is a real possibility in the world. History shows that the best, and/or first, tech adaption does not always prevail.

    I am rooting for his success.

  22. Space enthusiasts knew that SpaceX and Elon were driving the future of space to speed up getting to the moon and Mars but making Space a huge part of the world economy is also part of the progress that will happen.

  23. That will happen with the first instance of ISMRU. Which could have been decades ago if O'Neill were better understood. The start of the exponential growth part of a big S curve. Virtually none of it launched.

  24. I don't like saying this, but I very much believe that there are so many powerful people who hate Musk, that they will manage to get the government to block very much further development by SpaceX. I have mentioned before ways they could do so. I hope I am wrong, but that is what I expect, unfortunately, unless Musk has lined up very powerful allies that will be able to hold off the attacks on him.

    If Musk does not get blocked, SpaceX might very well accomplish something like what you describe, though I do feel you are overstating the possibilities.

  25. Me thinks that IF SpaceX Starship works, we will live in a new era. Much like they are counting the years like year 2000 BC or 2000 AD, will we be counting years as probably BM and AM – before Musk and after Musk. Or something of that sort. Musk will become a God-like figure on Earth and beyond. All of our previous history will merely be a footnote. You heard it here first. Personally, I still ain't having kids and stuff. Too selfish. But would have fun observing the Humanity going to the Stars.

  26. "Moon Landings and Development
    Orbital Development
    Mars Landings and Development"

    Good that one of those can actually make $$$$!!!

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