Will We Get Big Changes? Which Tech Will Make it Happen? AI?

The Technological Singularity prediction is something that has been very dominant in Future predictions for two decades. Before the dominant anticipation of a technological singularity that there was the dominant future prediction of widely anticipated Nuclear Age, Space Age and computer ages.

The first space age happened and there was the moon landing and satellites have a $300 billion per year economic impact. However, the Apollo program was canceled by Nixon and the Space Shuttle ended up making more expensive partial reusability. The space-age is getting back on track with SpaceX.

Nuclear Energy got to 20% of US electricity. Nixon supported it strongly in 1973 but then the Nuclear Regulatory Commission was created and completely new nuclear reactor designs stopped getting approved for almost 50 years. France did go to 80% nuclear for electricity in the late 1970s and 1980s. China has built a lot of nuclear power since 2000 but with a slowdown after 2011. There is going to be a moderate resurgence because of the global need to shift off of Russian natural gas and oil and with the electrification of transportation.

The Technological Singularity was the prediction of an age of abundance and technological change beyond our imagination because of the creation of artificial super general intelligence. This would unleash exponential growth and development and technological genies.

Various estimates of the global AI market in 2022 are $86 billion to about $500 billion. There are forecasts that the AI market in 2030 will be trillions. There are estimates that global AI spending will be $15-20 trillion and total AI enterprise value will be about $2-10 trillion.

There were some various predictions about the path to Technologial Singularity.

Ray Kurzweil predicted that the singularity will happen by 2045. However, Ray has said that his timing predictions have an implicit plus or minus a decade. He has put 2029 as the consistent date he has predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence. 2045 is when combined artificial general intelligence has a billion times the combined intelligence of all humans. Ray predicted by the 2030s, we will connect our neocortex, the part of our brain where we do our thinking, to the cloud.

Ray actual predictions then translates as :
2019-2039 – AI will pass valid Turing test
2035-2055 – Tech singularity with combined artificial intelligence over one billion times the combined intelligence of all humans

The brain connecting thing is being worked on by Neuralink. Timeframe and developments are still unclear.

Peter Diamandis partnered with Ray Kurzweil to creare Singularity University and the Singularity Summit. Peter and others predicted several things leading up to 2045 Technological Singularity. In 2018, Peter asked for predictions from (2018–2038). What are the breakthroughs we can expect on our countdown to the Singularity?

2020 Predictions Made in 2018
The 5G Network unleashes 10 – 100 Gigabit connection speeds for mobile phones around the world.
AI-based medical diagnostics & therapy recommendations are used in the majority of US healthcare.
Flying car operations take off in a few cities in the world.

NBF Review:
A few cities (Dubai) are allowing some flying car operations but the impact is trivial.

The Ookla global mobile and fixed broadband speedtests tell how fast connections really are.

TMobile has the highest 5G speeds at about 191 Mbps for 5G only mobile.

Speedtest Intelligence reveals Verizon was the fastest fixed broadband provider in the United States during Q1 2022, edging out XFINITY with a median download speed of 184.36 Mbps to XFINITY’s 179.12 Mbps.

T-Mobile took the top spot as the fastest and most consistent mobile operator in the U.S. during Q1 2022, achieving a median download speed of 117.83 Mbps and a Consistency Score of 88.3% — both increases over Q4 2021.

Looking at tests taken only on 5G, T-Mobile achieved the fastest median 5G download speed at 191.12 Mbps during Q1 2022. Verizon also had a notable increase in 5G download speed during Q1 2022 over Q4 2021 , which was helped by turning on new C-Band spectrum in January.

2024 Predictions Made in 2018
* The first private human missions have launched for the surface of Mars.
* 10,000,000 daily drone flights (today, there are about 100,000 daily airline flights).
* Drones routinely deliver packages to rooftops of apartment buildings and surface robots deliver those packages from rooftops to doorsteps throughout the buildings.
* The first “one cent per kilowatt-hour” deals for solar and wind are signed — one-fifth the price of the cheapest coal or gas deals today.
* Building new solar and wind is cheaper than building new coal or gas across 90% of the world.
* Electric vehicles are half of new vehicle sales.

NBF Review:
Looks like electric vehicles will reach half of all new vehicles sales in the 2024-2026 timeframe. Electric vehicles are over 20% of new vehicle sales in China and several european countries already.

Drones are not doing the routine deliveries except in tiny niche cases. The drones are having far less impact.

The human Mars mission is likely not launching until 2026-2032.

2034 Predictions Made in 2018
Companies like Kernel have made significant, reliable connections between the human cortex and the Cloud.
Robots act as maids, butlers, nurses and nannies, and become full companions. They support extended elderly independence at home.

NBF Review:
The robots as maids, butlers etc… could be a thing if Tesla and Elon Musk succeeds with Teslabot.

Progress will be made and AI will have larger impacts but getting really big changes means extreme scaling of businesses and technologies.

Technologies, businesses and industries that are vulnerable to new regulations that derail their business model will stop scaling. Technologies that keep scaling in size and impact need to constantly move down to lower costs and greater efficiency. Computers kept growing as their costs declined and performance increase.