CDC COVID Forecast

This week’s national CDC COVID ensemble forecast is that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks. The CDC expects 2,000 to 5,300 new deaths likely reported in the week ending June 11, 2022. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 1,008,000 to 1,018,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

The CDC has one pre-print manuscript that describes the performance of the ensemble forecasts through July 2020, as well as a second pre-print that evaluates the predictive performance of the ensemble and dozens of other models from April 2020 through October of 2021. Additionally, the CDC has compared the performance of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in another pre-print manuscript.

For the primary evaluation, they compared 28 models that submitted eligible forecasts for at least 47 of the 79 weeks considered in the overall model eligibility period. Teams that submitted to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub used a wide variety of modeling approaches and input data. Two of the evaluated models are from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub itself: a baseline model and an ensemble model.

IHME (University of Washington – funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) has been wrong whenever the COVID cases are not consistently falling. The IHME model always predicts that COVID will peak and their will no other new wave of cases unless we are already in a new wave.

Currently, the CDC COVID ensemble forecast is for 1.008 to 1.018 million COVID deaths by June 11 while the IHME forecast is for little less than 1.005 million COVID deaths by June 11. IHEM projects 1.016 million deaths by August 1.

The CDC yesterday reported 997.9k cumulative covid deaths as of May 17, 2022. The IHME forecast is that there will be 7,000 covid deaths in the US from May 18 to June 11 while the CDC COVID ensemble forecast is for 10,000 to 20,000 covid deaths in the US from May 18 to June 11.

Written by Brian Wang,