Elon plans to grow Twitter revenue by 5 times by 2028 and increase users by about 5 times to just short of 1 billion users in 2028. Elon’s Twitter plans’s were revealed from information from his Pitch Deck for investors. Elon has recruited about $10 billion from other investors and they wanted his business plans.
I wrote on April 14 (3 weeks ago) that Elon was buying Twitter to make it vastly larger and more profitable. The Pitch Deck confirms the expectations that I had.
I pointed out how Twitter has barely grown since 2014 and that Twitter under Musk should be able to match other successful social media companies with 1 billion users.
Dave Lee also highlights points from the NY Times reporting on Elon Musk Twitter Investor Pitch Deck.
Nextbigfuture predicted Twitter will be a piece of a massive SpaceX, Tesla and massive Crypto e-commerce, entertainment and communications plan.
Elon plans to have $10 billion of subscription revenue. If 10% of users have a $10/month plan then this would match that subscription revenue.
Elon will likely incorporate crypto payments for Twitter users and take a transaction fee.
Twitter will also have revenue from data licensing. Elon can use Twitter for voice applications and the data could be used Teslabots for verbal communication.
Elon has said we will likely make Twitter public again within 3 years. By 2025, the plan is for Twitter to have 600+ million users. Twitter has about 230 million users now.
SOURCES- NY Times, Meet Kevin, Dave Lee Investing
Written by Brian Wang, NExtbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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I hope he is able to do it.
Established power-brokers do not want him to succeed.
The main free speech thing at this time is the keeping and not hiding efforts at self humiliation leading into the Primal Revolution. Simply knowing what neurosis is and seeing the stuff coming from socialists world wide will inform all but the most in denial. "They don't even realize they are neurotic." All mentally healthy people are "live and let live" libertarian. All theocrats are potentially curable mystics, btw. As their political stuff deteriorates, it becomes essentially mystical. Note the style of argument, like evangelists. Blame others for the very things you do, call them names you qualify for. A litany of disjointed, self contradictory stuff. "Murderer" is a good description of people who support the war on drugs, drug war addicts. Yet those very drug war addicts use the term to describe those fighting against slavery. Sick.
Maybe. Not sure I'd want to rely on the software of the service to protect me from laws of other nations against speech that is legal where I am but is illegal or cause for civil action there.
Maybe it'd be OK, if there were universal agreement among governments that the service is responsible for any illegal or un-civil speech that leaks through and that if something is reported and the service takes it down or filters it in that country, that is sufficient redress for such failures.
You know what? Even though I hate what they have done, I don't care so much as long as he does what he has set out to. Open source algorithms, symmetric moderation, higher tolerance for speech up to the limits of local law.
Changing the future for the better will be the better revenge.
There's a chance he's gunning for a WeChat style ecosystem. Payment layer (not crypto, but perhaps micropayments?), and addon services enabled by a monetary transaction system.
Tesla robotaxi's, you can hail a ride with a tweet.
Pay home energy through Tesla virtual powerplant services.
Authenticating humans means a full ID system in place (this is a direct assault on Facebook, in terms of who has the bigger authenticated identity OAuth infrastructure for use with federated logins)(well, federated as in anybody besides them can't afford to build and run a decent and fast ID system, so they outsource it to them). Watch the eID/ePassport space, particular the early work Apple is doing now with eDrivers licenses.
My opinion is that he is holding All of the cards. The world cannot build asat faster than he can launch. And all other hardware in leo becomes vulnerable.
The Starlink network as it now stands does not make sense to move to displace legacy internet, but it can be tooled in that direction, with dish stations earning money by sharing data to nearby subscribers for reduced rates.
Sure, he could launch a small datacenter to provide content to dish users, but that would be a small segment, and not worth the effort, but that could change.
Who is willing to shut him down? Is the whole world going to declare war on Musk Inc.?
Will the US cut its nose off to spite its face?
He could sell it all and reboot in five years. He came from South Africa via Canada. Would he be unpatriotic if he accepted an offer from a more friendly nation?
Yes.
Frustrating that he will be delayed, likely for months, while current management is removing secret moderation tools and scrubbing incriminating emails.
Even after doing so, there would be plenty of forensic data to expose the activity, but pols and media will not let that be released to the mainstream.
It will be hacking, hardware failure, etc.
I hope he bails, sues, influences them to insolvency, and salts the earth instead.
But that would also be too much to ask for.
Limiting my claimed knowledge or comments to SpaceX as representing Musk, his deep Mars focus is anything but self serving, seems to me. Of course, being the savior of humanity would perhaps leave some room for hubris too. Putin has been filtered thru a system with different values, it is not just him alone. see Alice Miller "For Your Own Good" about Hilter cohort for same ol same ol. Not sure Musk came from a system. He names stuff after Tesla but seems to work more like Edison. The guy does show promise.
Yes, but the sins of self-serving actions and hubris are coming from the same place.
Putin's wars seemed to work, from his vantage, until this one. Musk has a better variety of outcomes.
"When I despair, I remember that all through history the way of truth and love has always won. There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall… think of it, always." ~ Mahatma Gandhi
Trivial if humans train *it* to the regions. If it figures it out on its own, pull the plug! It is too smart.
Assuming the centers are , well, centralized, the cold can be sold to others that attach. No need for many sats when a few biggies will do. The need and difficulty of dumping heat in a vacuum are well known known problems.
Yes, but the cash to build factories is not the limiting factor for how fast new Tesla factories are build. If Tesla were not constrained by chip and battery supplies, they would be building several more factories in parallel with the ~17 billion cash they have laying around.
Don't you think AI and machine learning will be smart enough to filter content according to region? I do.
Having a plan of increasing revenues by 5 time is not much of a plan. Putin also failed when he started feeling that everything he touches becomes Magic.
Nothing in the slide deck about leveraging or merging Starlink and Twitter, which I think is your most controversial prediction…
I think he's mostly paying for the Twitter brand presence in people's minds and devices. For far less than $50B he could have had an equivalent (better) service created, and easily built up his own customer base IF his service had equivalent "presence" from the start.
And he intends to increase number of customers by far more than it currently has, so current number of customers isn't too critical.
Putting servers in orbit doesn't put them beyond regulatory control. Starlink sats need to be replaced frequently with new (govt authorized) launches. Orbits and radio frequencies are regulated and allocations could be rescinded. Internet service that can't connect to Earth-based internet would be pretty pointless. And subscribers need to be able to pay for services somehow and generally they'll pay with Earth-bound fiat currencies for which governments could ban transactions to pay for Starlink or StarTweet.
Possibly if Elon and all employees lived in space and declared sovereignty and didn't need any cooperation from Earth governments and Elon somehow traded all his Earth assets for only assets made in and remaining in space, he could get away with it.
Though of course, there are also such things as anti-satellite missiles…
And pretty soon we'll have 'space junk' collectors – where the government owning the collector would get to define what constitutes 'junk'.
Twitter can become a stronger method for one-to-many conversations, heavily assisted by AI, with service fees for high volume clients like corporations and government agencies and major public figures.
AI could summarize all responses to a tweet for the poster. It could generate summary questions derived from responses, for the poster to respond to, and push that response to those whose queries the response answers. Or the AI could select 'representative' responses for the OP to tweet back at, with increased visibility.
Twitter AI could also try to answer responder questions with links to previous posts by the original poster – in essence a FAQ-bot.
Twitter could also add 'vanity tweet-@s'. For a fee – maybe set by bidding and paid only if you get your tweet responded to – you can be more likely to have a verified public figure actually read and respond to your tweet at them. (Probably with the understanding that unlike normal posts, such 'paid attention' posts will be filtered to block insults and such.) Public figures could take part of the fee as income, or direct it to a favorite charity, or if they really like the message they could choose to refund their part of the fee, and promote it and their return response to higher visibility.
As national laws are diverging on how to treat online services, Twitter will probably have to be fragmented by nation or groups of nations – US, EU, etc. Some (e.g. authors) will want an international audience, and pay a bit extra for the monitoring and interaction that requires to keep them "legal" everywhere they want a presence.
Yes. I agree. But I don't think it's a show stopper.
Twitter text service doesn't require that much data center.
I really like the $3 a month price. I'll sign up.
Twitter was spending about $2 billion a year (sales, marketing and R&D) and getting crappy results with little growth for 8 years. $10-15 billion over 8 years.
Could have built 10 tesla factories with that money.
I embedded the video where Kevin summarized The NY Times. But 3 weeks ago I called the obvious plan. The competent thing to do with Twitter. This article was me saying here are the confirmed details which match what I said. My speculation three weeks ago on this was right.
It is in the video which refers to The NY Times article. 600 million users by 2025 and 937 million by 2028. Those are the goals stated in a business plan sent to big investors that Elon was bringing on board. The NYtimes got a leaked business plan deck.
Twitter has been pissing away half of its money every year. 25% on marketing and sales and 25% on r and d. But almost no user growth since 2014 and vastly lower revenue per user than other social media. This is from the annual report financials.
12% of the planet does seem a little aggressive
This is the context for Elon to revive X.com . He never thought PayPal reached the potential of what he had in mind which now would also incorporate crypto and DLT. He bought back the domain name X.com several years ago.
Alipay and WeChatpay are proof of concept and there is still nothing comparable outside Chinese companies.
The fastest revenue stream for Twitter is charging for corporate accounts.
Craigslist uses a similar model. Everything is free for everyone, except a handful of commercial users.
Building Twitter into a second PayPal would certainly be an entertaining circle.
Has Elon Musk stated that Twitter will grow to 1 billion users, or is this just something that Brian speculates will happen?
You're going to need a lot of radiator infrastructure if you want data centers in space.
As a libertarian, I hope his *open source* info filters are better than groups of power addicts, or mystics or theocrats of some sort. But getting ads for the stuff I have already seen seems counter productive, and gives me pause as to these things.
An essential libertarian truth is that one tolerates non assaultive speech as a matter of essential process. Things just don't work with censorship, no chance. Examples abound.
So- he paid much more than the company is worth, and everyone is trying to scuttle the deal (shareholders, politicians, regulators), so after finding out that the company grossly overstated subscribers prior to accepting the offer, doesn't that give him cause to back out and sue for damages?
He can always come back to the auction.
Once he completes infrastructure he only needs ICANN for legacy internet access. Starlink will eventually replace that. All services hosted on orbital servers will be beyond regulatory control.
I've been telling y'all, Elon's gonna be the tycoonest of all.