Drone Youtuber Disagrees With Electrek Tesla Texas Production Claim

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Electrek reports that they have obtained inside information for the first time that says Tesla Texas production rate reached 2000-5000 cars per week.

Joe Tegtmeyer has daily drone footage of Tesla Austin. Joe says Tesla Texas production is just over 100 per day (aka under 1000 per week). If the Electrek report has any accuracy then perhaps Austin could ramp very soon to 2000-5000 cars per week but claims that it has already happened ramped appear to be incorrect.

The Tesla Gigafactory at Berlin Germany is significantly ramping with reports of a third shift to reach 7X24 hour operation starting July 4th which will increase production to 1500 to 2000 cars per week.

The Tesla Austin Gigafactory has had a slower ramp because of issues ramping the 4680 batteries and having the 2170 tooling machines stuck in a port in China. The 2170 tooling machines are now in Texas and Tesla Model Ys with 2170s are being made.

Electrek reported:
Sources familiar with the matter say that Tesla has managed to ramp up production since adding a new version of the Model Y, Model Y Long Range, and it now produces several thousand vehicles per week.

One source said that Tesla is making as many as 5,000 vehicles available to deliver per week from Gigafactory Texas, but it’s not clear if that’s a sustainable rate. Another source said that Tesla is capable of producing at least 2,000 Model Ys per week at the plant since adding the Model Y Long Range to the mix.

Both factories seem on track to ramp past 2000 cars per week in July. If they each end the third quarter (September) with 5000 cars per week, then each would be making about 40,000 to 55,000 cars in the third quarter. It would be reasonable to expect 100,000 cars from the combination of the two factories for the third quarter.

The Tesla Shanghai factory is getting a production upgrade in the first two weeks of July. This will increase production capacity to 22,000 cars per week. Even with the two week shutdown, this would bring Tesla Shanghai to 200,000 to 220,000 cars in the third quarter.

Tesla Fremont would produce 140,000 to 150,000 in Q3.

Tesla should produce about 430,000 to 470,000 cars in Q3.

Tesla could reach 600,000 to 650,000 cars in Q4.
Tesla Q4 could be
Shanghai 270,000-300,000
Berlin 80,000-100,000
Austin 80,000-100,000
Fremont 150,000

Tesla Shanghai in Q2

This and detailed analysis of prior months in China and estimates for the other factories will likely result in about total Tesla Q2 2022 with 255,000 deliveries and 260,000 cars produced.