Lars of Best in Tesla has reviewed the EV forecasts made by IEA, EIA and Opec and Deloitte and Ark Invest from 2016.
Let us look at how much the energy picture changes as we shift over from gas cars to electric cars.
In China, it is a lot of coal power but also new solar and wind.
It is about 4000 kwh for each BEV that drives 15000 miles. This needs about 1.5 tons of coal per car or one dedicated solar roof.
50 million BEV in 2025 would need 75 million tons of coal.
100 million BEV in 2025 would need 150 million tons of coal per year.
This would displace 400-800 gallons of oil per car. 10-20 barrels per car assume 15 gallon avg per year.
50 million would be 750 million barrels per year.
100 million would be 1.5 billion barrels per year.
Replacing all cars would be 2 billion cars. This would be 3 billion tons of coal per year replacing 30 billion barrels per year.
Alternatively, you can hundreds of millions of solar roofs or solar farms and new grid or grid enhancements.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Interesting tidbit – in areas with really heavy coal-power-generated electricity, hybrids are actually ‘cleaner’ (in CO2) than BEVs and plug-in hybrids. Only true of a few US states, but also probably true of China (63% coal) in most cases.
See https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html
Your software isn’t letting me comment about some odd behavior of your website that I doubt you want
So now it does, but something about the specifics meant the software wouldn’t post my comment.
The posting software is inconsistent. If you can read this, this is the only post of mine out of three total that made it through.
cyrillic
When I go to the NBF main page I get that it is searching for some topic in Cyrillic letters & of course not finding anything.
Lol. OPEC tried to low ball EV future sales? Color me surprised.
Global oil production in 2019,
(last time I did my global warming research), was~ 100 million barrels per day, that’s about 370 million barrels per year,
Where is the 1.5 billion barrels per year coming from?
100 million barrels per day is 36.5 billion barrels per year.
42 gallons per barrel. 630 gallons is 15 barrels.
1.5 billion cars. Many older not driven as much. Probably like 15 billion barrels for cars and 5 billion barrels for trucks. 4 billion barrels for other transportation.
100 million barrels/day gives 370 million barrels in 3.7 days.
You’ve lost 2 zeroes in your calculation.
“50 million BEV in 2025 would need 75 million tons of coal”
Back of the napkin calculation basically says this is equal to 20 1GW nuclear power plants.