Reviewing EV Sales Forecasts from 2016 for 2022

Lars of Best in Tesla has reviewed the EV forecasts made by IEA, EIA and Opec and Deloitte and Ark Invest from 2016.

Let us look at how much the energy picture changes as we shift over from gas cars to electric cars.

In China, it is a lot of coal power but also new solar and wind.

It is about 4000 kwh for each BEV that drives 15000 miles. This needs about 1.5 tons of coal per car or one dedicated solar roof.

50 million BEV in 2025 would need 75 million tons of coal.
100 million BEV in 2025 would need 150 million tons of coal per year.
This would displace 400-800 gallons of oil per car. 10-20 barrels per car assume 15 gallon avg per year.
50 million would be 750 million barrels per year.
100 million would be 1.5 billion barrels per year.
Replacing all cars would be 2 billion cars. This would be 3 billion tons of coal per year replacing 30 billion barrels per year.

Alternatively, you can hundreds of millions of solar roofs or solar farms and new grid or grid enhancements.

11 thoughts on “Reviewing EV Sales Forecasts from 2016 for 2022”

  1. Global oil production in 2019,
    (last time I did my global warming research), was~ 100 million barrels per day, that’s about 370 million barrels per year,
    Where is the 1.5 billion barrels per year coming from?

    Reply
    • 100 million barrels per day is 36.5 billion barrels per year.
      42 gallons per barrel. 630 gallons is 15 barrels.

      1.5 billion cars. Many older not driven as much. Probably like 15 billion barrels for cars and 5 billion barrels for trucks. 4 billion barrels for other transportation.

      Reply
  2. “50 million BEV in 2025 would need 75 million tons of coal”

    Back of the napkin calculation basically says this is equal to 20 1GW nuclear power plants.

    Reply

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