I did some research on Tesla safety using non-Tesla data to address the issue from the AI experts. Some AI experts criticized FSD. I used US, UK government and insurance data to show Tesla is already safer and why we should expect more safety from Autopilot and FSD. I also provided context about where and how accidents and deaths occur with cars.
Are Tesla cars safer and have they saved lives? Spoiler Yes.
All Tesla’s come with safety features expected to reduce accidents by 30-50% (NHTSA analysis of those features). Keeping lanes, no rear-ending and avoiding pedestrians can prevent 60% (20k+ deaths in the US alone) of driving-related deaths. 800k deaths globally and 30M injuries per yr if all cars just prevented those 3 things. All Tesla 2014+ have basic ADAS (advanced driver assist) features to vastly reduce those types of problems.
Has Tesla Autopilot saved lives? Again Yes. but I will provide data.
Is FSD beta safe? Yes. It is being used by over 100,000 people for the past 6+ months and there are no reports of deaths or major injuries. This level of usage would expect to see 1-2 major accidents per month. This has not happened, therefore safety is well above average US driving.
Is Autopilot safe? How many lives would you expect to save by superior automatic lane-keeping? 20-30% of traffic deaths. This automatic lane-keeping is even better than lane warning and blindspot warning systems.
Will Full FSD (Tesla Full Self Driving) be safer? Yes, and a safety score with real time insurance can help ensure it will be.
NOTE: when Tesla FSD is currently in beta and is driving city streets under required driver supervision. People say that supervising the system reduces the stress of driving by more than half. Supervising the system still means looking at traffic and being ready to take over. Tesla FSD will likely go into wide release at the end of this year in the US. Drivers will still be required to pay attention just in case. It will not be perfect.
Youtube videos by FSD beta users show large improvement over last 8 months. Again there have been no major accidents or deaths using FSD beta with 100k users for 8 months. The occasional multi-hour no intervention drive will become the normal situation. Drivers will know situations that could become problematic. Just like drivers in shotgun can backseat drive a human driver.
Can Safety Scoring, Insurance and FSD get more optimal usage of FSD? Yes.
Insurance and government statistics in US and UK show Tesla’s are among the safest cars involved in the fewest accidents. About 40% below average in US. Very Low accidents involvement in UK (10 times less than Toyota, Ford and several others of number per 10,000 cars).
UK Car Statistics
Tesls is among the manufacturers with the least number of accidents per 10,000 models?
Morris – 16
Austin – 26
Tesla – 28
Ferrari – 39
Aston Martin – 40
Lotus – 55
Bentley – 75
This is nine to ten times less than the rate of accident involvement for Ford (299), Toyota (270) and Mercedes (259), VW (251) cars in the UK.
Tesla is willing to charge 30-60% less for those with good Tesla Safety Scores. Can motivate 60% safer driving and lower accidents. Safety Scores with Real-Time Insurance pricing can motivate safer driving.
Safety Scoring could be adjusted to ensure FSD monitoring behavior after FSD is fully released for general usage.
US National Highway statistics and crash test analysis all also confirm higher levels of safety with Tesla. This data is reviewed in my youtube video. Insurance Industry data that also confirms higher safety is also reviewed.
Other Nextbigfuture Tesla Videos
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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From the start, the superior Tesla ADAS strategy seems to have been way more consumer oriented (which is compatible with improved safety and less accidents) versus traditional auto piecemeal, nickle and dime you approach which seems more interested in selling more cars after you crash your car due to the dumb warnings but not accident avoidance.
“Accidents per 10,000 models” seems a strange metric. It’s quite possible different models of cars get more or less miles driven on them per month.
Accidents per 1M miles driven would be a lot more sensible metric, as it would take care of that issue.
I would be mighty curious what the safety numbers look like including when autopilot or FSD disengages within 1 minute of impact.
There have been reports of users who are suddenly handed control near impact because the autopilot system gives up. This gives Tesla the fig leaf that their system was not in control during the accident. Forcing control handoff in what the autopilot determines would be a too difficult situation is on the face of it, a difficult situation for a human even if prepared for control handoff. While Tesla makes it very clear that the human is responsible at all times, the reality is drivers check out when autopilot is engaged, and their ability to take back control in a difficult situation is compromised.
The “study” is just selection bias in action. Those tesla drivers are better/unique drivers than the general public to begin with. Just like those Austin and Martin drivers (who don’t even use FSD!).
Safer or not, Tesla is on the brink of bankrupcy per Musk as I have predicted due to too many factories being built as you have advocated. Of course you are not going to post anything about it. Yeah go ahead and delete this comment now that theat you have shifted to this Chinese style controlled and firewalled commenting system, either way the truth is out there!
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/23/cars/elon-musk-tesla-losses-bankruptcy-threat/index.html
yes, the FUD is out there. Elon makes outrageous statements. He has said Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world as well.
You cite an article with a lot of quotes from TelsaQ clown Gordon Johnson.
The construction costs have been recognized in R&D and capex. 4000 staff at each factory costs about $60 million per month with benefits.
$360 million for the quarter. 12000 cars made in the quarter in Berlin and Austin. $720 million in revenue. If 30% operating margin normally and staffing only half of the costs, then need to get to $2 billion in revenue to start breaking even on the factories. I am guessing $300-500 million hit to net income in Q2. I think Q2 still profitable even after $500m bitcoin paper loss and under production in Shanghai from COVID lockdown. Still making profit in Q2. My guess $1.5-2 billion.