Which Car Companies Goes Bankrupt or Restructures First?
They will be losing 50-90% of their legacy auto business from 2024-2028. When and how fast will depend upon their region and types of cars they make. Large trucks and SUVs will take 2-5 years longer to replace. China and Europe and transition about 2-4 years faster than in the USA.
Which is already very weak? Many car companies are already financially very weak. Most have huge amounts of debt.
Bad handling of semiconductor shortage and supply chain? These problems are already causing car companies to lose 5-15% of their production for 2020 and 2021 and 2022. These problems could last to 2024 or even longer.
A lot of debt impacted by higher interest rates? We are now entering a recession and period of high interest rates. This will make holding debt or raising debt far harder.
High margin parts business lives on for another decade.
They need to survive a 50-90% hit to ICE business in 2024-2028
Which has the most dependency on China and Europe ICE car sales?
When do prices for used ICE cars collapse? This will expose car companies depending upon leasing of cars. The leasing business depends upon the resale value of cars.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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