We know what will happen in the next two years with electric cars because we know what electric car factories and battery factories have already been built.
Electric Car Factories take time to build and scale production. Battery factories and battery supplies take time to establish.
This is the same as in 1943 in WW2. Germany was still to be defeated and battles were still to be fought. But Russia had tank factories in Siberia out of reach of the German military and the US had tank and airplanes factories across the ocean. German factories were being bombed but Allied production could grow unharmed.
Electric cars are now over 12% of the world market and growing at 50-80% every year. There should be close to 10 million EVs this year not including hybrid cars. There are 70 million cars per year in total. In 2025, EVs will be around half of all new cars. ICE companies will go into even sharper decline in 2024.
Tesla has over 50% of the over $40k price electric car market in US, China and soon Europe. This dominant market share in the EV car market has been sustained over a few years.
We know ICE (combustion engine) car and companies have already lost. They are getting weaker and cannot outbuild on factories or outcompete on technology.
Tesla is sold out in cars to 2023. There is no market risk.
EVs and Tesla have already won. The market competition will occur but the battle to build factories, batteries and technology and pre-sales are over.
Previous Talks with Brian on Tesla and SpaceX videos by Brian Wang.
Proof that Tesla is currently the leader in Safety and the Next Level Safety of Autopilot and FSD
SpaceX global communication and Air Cargo Domination
ICE Carmakers Going Bankrupt 2024-2028
Tesla Real Risks, FUD, Recession and Recovery
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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5 thoughts on “Future of Electric Cars is Locked”
Execution is key,
after making 3 great golf shots, you still gotta make that 4′ putt to finish.
I still think you’re confusing a sigmoid curve for an exponential. Admittedly, they do look alike at first.
There’s still market risk.
Right now, almost all vehicles are supply constrained. Demand for EVs might appear stronger than it actually is.
Are we not (U.S.A.) in control of the rare resources that are needed to manufacture batteries that are used in EV’s. Are we not at a full mining lowdown due to the religion of climate change? Has everyone ignored these inconvenient truths as well as the CO2 footprint manufacturing starting point for EV’s , no its not zero, its way above that of a internal combustion vehicle with the current break even mileage equivalent rating of 180,000 miles, just to align with the today efficient gasoline powered vehicles.
The fantasy world that today’s green idiocy driven ideologues will drive the rest of the world into a energy starved world by ignoring the absolute needs for COAL, Petroleum and natural gas for the next 20 to 30 years. I can’t wait to hear them all scream in horror when their next I-Phone is delayed due to lack of petroleum derivatives to make the enclosure and yes the microchips inside.
These facts are under appreciated. They also mean Tesla has a couple years of clear runway to execute on it’s Machine vision FSD project pulling in ever more data and expanding it’s capacity to use it with Dojo. That really also seems to be already won, it’s just execution.
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