Ukraine Could Retake Kherson City Up to the Dnipro River

Ukraine will soon cutoff Russian troops in Kherson on the Northern side of the Dnipro River from resupply. They are destroying bridges and have already rendered certain bridges mostly unusable.

This will enable Ukraine’s larger number of troops to outnumber and overwhelm Russian troops without resupply.

This retaking of significant territory currently held by Russian troops would be significant. Ukraine lost part of the Donbas area on the other side of the country.

Controlling Kherson would enable to Ukraine to cutoff water to Crimea.

Denys Davydov provides the report. He also reports on overall artillery strikes.

The Kyiv Independent describes what the liberation of Kherson would look like with a Ukrainian counter offensive.

Key targets
There are three key objectives Ukraine has to meet in order to encircle Russian troops and force them to surrender in Kherson.

Ukraine would have to impose firm control over the M14/P47 highway that runs east of Kherson and connects the city with Nova Kakhovka, one of Russia’s key bases in Ukraine’s southern Kherson Oblast and the site of recent attacks on Russian ammunition depots carried out with the help of newly delivered Western weapons.

It would also need to destroy two bridges across the Dnipro River, the Antonivsky Bridges, one for vehicle traffic and the other for railway, close to the town of Antonivka on the outskirts of Kherson. The two bridges currently allow Russia to reinforce its garrison in Kherson from occupied territory across the river.

Ukraine would also have to cut off the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant in Nova Kakhovka some 55 kilometers east of Kherson. The dam also serves as a bridge, along which the M14/P47 highway runs.

If the highway is cut off by Ukraine, Russian forces would have no way of getting across the Dnipro. With the two Antonivksy bridges destroyed, the only other way to make it across the Dnipro’s right bank is in Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhzhia over 200 kilometers away from Kherson.

This first phase would only be considered successful once Russian forces are blocked and cut off from supplies and reinforcements.

If successful, Russian forces in Kherson would be backed up against a giant natural obstacle. The Dnipro River is nearly 350 meters wide near the city. Ukrainian artillery would also be close enough to prevent Russian forces from installing any sort of river cross, such as floating bridges.

This prediction that Russians will lose Kherson north of the Dnipro over the next 1-3 months is highly likely. The prediction is based upon how logistics and balance of forces that we already know about will play out.

Nextbigfuture and Brian Wang Make Predictions With a Public Track Record of High Accuracy

I report news and make predictions. This is not a change. I supply data with the predictions. Also, mainstream reporting also make frequent predictions. There were some pro-Democrat radio hosts who predicted that Russia would crush Ukraine quickly before the war started (because they are Russia was the reasoning.) They also drummed up the WW3 scenario. https://www.kgoradio.com/2022/03/11/are-we-on-the-cusp-of-world-war-iii/

This was clearly idiotic and the analysis of somehow who did not understand Russia’s real military capabilities. but going off of WW2 reputation and misunderstanding the nuclear weapon situation.

Plenty of other news reporters on regular media make predictions. They have very poor track records. Also, supposed experts make predictions and they are often wrong. Nobel Prize winning economist and NY Times columnist, Paul Krugman, has been notoriously bad at predicting. He was recently wrong about inflation and the economy under Biden. He was wrong about the stock market.

I have been writing it for 17 years. I am a futurist. I make predictions. This involves being totally current with everything important that is happening now and understanding relevant history. Knowing quite a bit about the relevant topic of military factors (weapons, armies, losses etc…). Looking through the fog of war.

I have made hundreds of public predictions and tracked the results.
On the public futurist prediction website Metaculus and on either sites and articles.
Over the last 3 years, 254 Metaculus prediction questions have resolved that I made predictions.
Total questions: 254 Average score: 0.113
Lower average Brier score is better.
https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110947/
I rank 66th out of many thousands of participants in terms of prediction results.
I started in 2019. There are some other with more points because of longer participation.

I participated in the IARPA Good Judgement project. In 2011, IARPA – the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA – launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) – led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania – emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data. At the time of the Good Judgement project, I was close to being ranked as a Superpredictor. However, there were some poorly worded questions with bad resolution criteria.

Per the public data and track record, I am a very good predictor with about 80% accuracy.

Earlier, it was clear that Russia was failing in its initial push for Kyiv. It was clear for months that many cities would fail to be taken. It became apparent after the russians focused on the Donbas exclusively and used artillery primarily that they would take those cities. Predictions I made were consistent with those results weeks and months before they happened.

The bridges and supply chain situation are very predictive. The earlier Russian losses had a lot to do with badly maintained trucks and inability to go into the Ukrainian mud.
Russia’s logistic problems were discussed and the insufficiency in trucks. This problem still exists.
In April, I predicted a less active war in the summer because both sides were getting short on weapons. This was a correct prediction.

In March, observed the pace of Russia military casualties and the problems this would cause. Russia has been forced to shift to a force protection campaign. They are relying on artillery.

In March, I made the prediction that Russia and Ukraine would both lose.

In March, Russia has not fixed failures seen in the first Chechnya war.

Specific Prediction

The Battle for Kyiv, Mariupol and the battle for the Donbas each took place over a couple of months. It was fairly clear that Russia was going to be able to take Mariupol and then the Donbas. It was also clear that Ukraine was stalling the Kyiv offensive and that it would culminate and fail. Knowledge and predictability of these developments were not impacted by getting some battlefield reports from sources that were spinning for propoganda purposes. Assessing the quality of war info sources needs to factor in history of the source on prior developments in the war.

The culminating point in military strategy is the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations. On the offensive, the culminating point marks the time when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance, because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest. The task of the attacker is to complete its objectives before the culminating point is reached. The task of the defender on the other hand, is to bring the attacking force to its culminating point before its objectives are completed. The concept of a culminating point (Kulminationspunkt) was formulated by the Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War published in 1832.

Cutting off supplies to a military force and having them pinned against a physical obstacle like a river (with no bridges) means that it is a matter of time (and not much time) before those forces are defeated or withdrawn.

The prediction with 95+% certainty is that Ukraine will control Kherson west of the Dnipro by October 31, 2022. The Dnipro freezes from Late Dec to mid to late March. Getting the west of Kherson would set up Ukraine to push across the frozen Dnipro in late Dec to January after a rest in November. Russia has consolidated artillery and other forces in the Donbas. I believe the flank areas (Kherson, Kharkiv) are areas where Ukraine could advance and rollback Russia. It will take more foreign weapons and some time. I think the weapons are coming. The pace of the war is more grinding. Neither Ukraine or Russia forces are as mobile and capable as the US military.

17 thoughts on “Ukraine Could Retake Kherson City Up to the Dnipro River”

  1. I think Brian is wrong here, any credible prediction relies on trustworthy data and that just does not exist in this war of propaganda.

    What is not mentioned in most western reports is that Ukrainian forces have to advance across flat, open terrain to take Kherson City, their losses will be enormous, their armed forces are already greatly diminished, they have to remove forces from other fronts to launch this offensive. Everything along the Black Sea and other fronts are made more vulnerable. US munitions have not proven effective at taking out the dam and bridges that would all have to fall in order to execute this advance.

    Although western media reports the Russian economy is falling apart, clear impartial data suggests otherwise; strongest Ruble in five years, growing cohesion of BRICS nations (at the expense of western influence) and ever stronger commodities prices. Western sanctions appear to be more adversely affecting EU nations; Germany and Italy especially are in hugely precarious positions. There is little sign that Russian domestic support is wanning.

    In the larger picture, this is just a probing challenge to western hegemony & we are not faring well. When a pack of hyenas encounters a strong lion they leave him alone, but if the lion is weak, they will attack. We are compromised on many fronts; corrupt and weakened. How might our many adversaries respond to this current state? Right now, the Chinese and Russians both have next-gen weapons systems we appear to have no response to, might they see this as their time?

    Reply
  2. The fact you rely on Denys Davydov as a source shows you will be wrong. He consistently makes great claims of successes by Ukraine that amount to nothing or very little. I don’t hear any victory bells ringing over Kherson yet and don’t expect them anytime soon.
    Note, I don’t begrudge Denys position. He’s a patriot, but unfortunately that doesn’t make him correct.

    Reply
    • Totally disagree. Davydov admits and plots defeats on his maps EXACTLY the same as victories. I watch him, do you?

      Reply
  3. Russia started to banana peel their artillery barrels. That’s bad for morale. Russia does not have enough trucks to supply ammunition, food, fuel, and salaries, much less artillery barrels. The next three winters for Ivan will be very cold unless Donbas and Crimea are returned to Ukraine.

    Reply
  4. They have a deadline: The Dnipro freezes over each winter, and will be one big bridge for several months. They have to cut off the Russians soon enough that they can’t simply hold out for that.

    Reply
  5. Zero percent chance the Ukrainians take Kherson. They have been sending offensives against Kherson consistently this summer. It seems likely they’ll try another large scale attack, fail, and the lib media will no doubt pretend it’s a success, even as they fail to take even Kherson city, let alone the oblast.

    Reply
    • It’s currently day 151 of Putins 3 day war to conquer Ukraine. Everyone knows which side is pretending this was a success.

      Reply
    • You don’t have to take Kherson by force to take it. If the Russians there have no escape route and no resupply then they will surrender. Russian morale is not in a state where they will perform their own Mariupol.

      Reply
      • Have we moved from reporting news to reporting prophecies?

        “Ukraine will soon cutoff Russian troops in Kherson on the Northern side of the Dnipro River from resupply. “

        Reply
        • I report news and make predictions. This is not a change. I supply data with the predictions. Also, mainstream reporting also make predictions. There were some pro-Democrat radio hosts who predicted that Russia would crush Ukraine quickly before the war started (because they are Russia was the reasoning.) They also drummed up the WW3 scenario. https://www.kgoradio.com/2022/03/11/are-we-on-the-cusp-of-world-war-iii/
          This was clearly idiotic and the analysis of somehow who did not understand Russia’s real military capabilities. but going off of WW2 reputation and misunderstanding the nuclear weapon situation.

          Are you new to my website? I have been writing it for 17 years. I am a futurist. I make predictions. This involves being totally current with everything important that is happening now and understanding relevant history. Knowing quite a bit about the relevant topic of military factors (weapons, armies, losses etc…). Looking through the fog of war.

          I have made hundreds of public predictions and tracked the results.
          On the public futurist prediction website Metaculus.
          Over the last 3 years, 254 prediction questions have resolved that I made predictions.
          Total questions: 254 Average score: 0.113
          Lower average Brier score is better.
          https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110947/
          I rank 66th out of many thousands of participants in terms of prediction results.
          I started in 2019. There are some other with more points because of longer participation.

          I participated in the IARPA Good Judgement project. https://goodjudgment.com/about/
          In 2011, IARPA – the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA – launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) – led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania – emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

          Per the data and track record, I am a very good predictor.

          Earlier, it was clear that Russia was failing in its initial push for Kyiv. It was clear for months that many cities would fail to be taken. It became apparent after the russians focused on the Donbas exclusively and used artillery primarily that they would take those cities. Predictions I made were consistent with those results weeks and months before they happened.

          The bridges and supply chain situation are very predictive. The earlier Russian losses had a lot to do with badly maintained trucks and inability to go into the Ukrainian mud.
          https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/logisticswinswars.html (Russia’s logistic problems, not enough trucks)
          https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/04/175532.html (less active war in the summer because both sides are short on weapons – correct prediction)
          https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/when-will-russia-run-out-of-soldiers.html
          https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/174952.html
          Russia has not fixed failures seen in the first Chechnya war
          https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/03/russian-military-has-not-fixed-chechnya-failures.html

          Reply
          • So what is the exact prediction ?
            Mine is that Cherson will remain under Russina/or pro-russia control with over 90% probability. I provision 10% because it is a crazy world we are living in and nothing is certain.
            (1)

            Prediction number #2 . By the end of december Russia will try to hold a referendum and proceed with the annexation with the Cherson region – 60%. Alternatively they might create Some People’s republic of Cherson and keep it formally outside of Russia.

            Prediction number #3. By the end of September Bahmut will fall. (~85% confidence). By the end of August ~60% confidence

            prediction #4. The world-wide grain shortage will be no more than 15 % of the preceding year. But there would be some supply chain and policy shortages. Sub-sahara and poor AP countries will feel the pain.

            prediction #5. Putin will remain in power until the end of the year (2022). – 90% percent confidence.
            prediction #6. Putin will remain in power until the end of the next year (2023). – 66% percent confidence.
            prediction #7. China will not invade Taiwan in 2022 – 90% percent confidence.

            prediction #8. Putin will sponsor SENS to remain in power forever. … just kidding 🙂

          • The Battle for Kyiv, Mariupol and the battle for the Donbas each took place over a couple of months. It was fairly clear that russia was going to be able to take Mariupol and then the Donbas. It was also clear that Ukraine was stalling the Kyiv offensive and that it would culminate and fail.

            The culminating point in military strategy is the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations. On the offensive, the culminating point marks the time when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance, because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest. The task of the attacker is to complete its objectives before the culminating point is reached. The task of the defender on the other hand, is to bring the attacking force to its culminating point before its objectives are completed. The concept of a culminating point (Kulminationspunkt) was formulated by the Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War published in 1832.

            Cutting off supplies to a military force and having them pinned against a physical obstacle like a river (with no bridges) means that it is a matter of time (and not much time) before those forces are defeated or withdrawn.

            The prediction with 95+% certainty is that Ukraine will control Kherson west of the Dnipro by October 31, 2022. The Dnipro freezes from Late Dec to mid to late March. Getting the west of Kherson would set up Ukraine to push across the frozen Dnipro in late Dec to January after a rest in November. Russia has consolidated artillery and other forces in the Donbas. I believe the flank areas (Kherson, Kharkiv) are areas where Ukraine could advance and rollback Russia. It will take more foreign weapons and some time. I think the weapons are coming. The pace of the war is more grinding. Neither Ukraine or Russia forces are as mobile and capable as the US military.

          • so let’s make the prediction more precise. If we look at the map: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kherson,+Kherson+Oblast,+Ukraine,+73000/@46.6172253,32.5196742,11.75z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c41aa25d9bf967:0xf3a5478c8e3121fe!8m2!3d46.635417!4d32.616867 I see a few small towns (or even suburbs) west of
            Dnipro River:
            Chornobaivka,Bilozerka,Komyshany. Let’s say that your prediction is right if Ukraine has control of any one of them by Oct 31st. And by control to mean that there are no major fights inside those settlements, and there are less pro-russian active soldiers than ukrainian forces by number( We don’t count prisoners of war, wounded patients in hospitals, etc).

            For example,
            the notorious Snake Island. Russians have withdrawn from there, but ADAIK there is no permanent military presence , so it is rather no man’s land.

            And, possibly, an alternative definition of control. If either side officially declares a retreat from that area then it is automatically “controlled” by the other party. By the second definition the Snake Island is controlled by Ukraine.

      • The Russians in Kherson, with the bridges cut, would be unsupplied, unreinforced, and unsupported.

        Worse for them, they are already demoralized, but it would get much worse. Worst of all, this isn’t a defensive force, they are the attackers, and they would be trapped in hostile terrain. Nothing like Mariupol.

        Reply
    • I think you getting mixed up about who does all the pretending. Russia’s 3 day war is currently on its 151st day and apparently they have occupies 2 thirds of the Ukraine and all their major cities if you listen to their not so liberal press. Maybe you have similar press where you are from?

      Reply

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