The Russia-Ukraine War is the most intense conventional conflict in Europe since World War II.
“The Russians are taking a tremendous number of casualties on the other side of the equation,” said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy official. “I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians are probably taking 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months.”
Ukraine has inflicted more than 10,000 casualties on the Russians in just the last month as new multiple rocket systems have come to Kyiv from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In July, CIA director William Burns said Russia had suffered around 60,000 casualties, including 15,000 troops killed in action. Ukraine’s military estimates that 42,340 Russian troops have been killed in combat, nearly triple what Western officials have stated.
The estimates are that Ukraine has about 10,000-20,000 military deaths and 7,000-30,000 civilian deaths. Wounded would be two to four times higher.
The new Russian casualty estimate includes Russian paramilitary and volunteer forces, such as the mercenary Wagner Group, some units of which have been redeployed from posts in Libya, Syria, and the Central African Republic to fight on the front lines in the Donbas region.
A new Pentagon military aid package includes an undisclosed amount of ammunition for the truck-mounted High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, and munitions for Norwegian-made air defenses as well as 1,000 more Javelin anti-tank missile systems. The United States has now provided nearly $10 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, nearly twice Kyiv’s military budget in 2021.
SOURCES- Pentagon, Foreign Policy, Wikipedia
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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What is remarkable is that the US Defence Dept estimate is much higher than the one provided by the Ukrainian government , which i subject to all wartime propaganda biases.
The numbers provided by BBC and UN look more plausible. There’s a rule of thumb that the ration of killed to injured is about 1:4. So if we take the number for the face value the killed should be about 16K.
Also one thing to keep in mind is that Russian Forces have a different blotter from the Donesk “Allies” . So the russain federation will not consider list them as officially russain casualties.
Btw, the few HIMARS and other launchers are not a game changer. They are too few. Probably painful and annoying but don’t account for much in the big picture. The Ukranian government begged for 300 hundred rocket launchers. They got … drum roll … probably o 20 over the course of a few months. And those things don’t last long under the enemy fire. And I guess they are prime targets.
And let’s not fool ourselves. There are different definitions of winning. The one that means that the Ukraine will militarily beat Russia is just not gonna happen. If by victory is meant to inflict too much damage so Russia gives up, that is a possibility. However, their acceptable damage budget might be quite large.
Reading comprehension. Deaths are like 1/3 of total casualties. Yeah the soldiering is over for the other 2/3 for the rest of their lives, but they’ll live.
I hope theyd just start taling, this conflict takes roughly 400 casualties per day, the crimea conflict is now what, 7,8 years? Pffft
Some of the supplies need to be going to Taiwan.
More than that. Taiwan needs to be arming and training every able-bodied citizen, beyond the compulsory requirements of men. Make every hill, town and forest a fortress by the time the CCP decides to invade
I doubt they will invade directly. But for sure can do naval and air blockade. Then probably instigate a government coup.
Their military budget of 2,1% of GDP makes them look pretty relaxed, alot more than Israel.
There’s this pesky problem. Taiwan unlike Ukraine is not recognised by US as an independent country. So, technically arming T will be messing in internal chinese affairs.. by the same official US metrics.
US does sell weapons to Taiwan. E.g. F-16s in 2020. Not sure why giving them stuff would make a difference as far as China is concerned – no doubt they dislike both equally.
Since supporting Ukraine, and demonizing Russia is the new thing in leftist/democrat/deep state land, anything published by the US government, or the big media companies is suspect.
The one thing I notice, is that Russian forces have been very careful to minimize civilian casualties, while Ukrainian forces have not, including using civilian facilities as bases of operation contrary to international law. This is as close as it gets to good guy/bad guy in a shooting war.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign/ukrainian-army-uses-populated-residential-areas-hospitals-military-bases-report
“Since supporting Ukraine, and demonizing Russia is the new thing in leftist/democrat/deep state land, anything published by the US government, or the big media companies is suspect.”
I am not planning on trusting our national media, but this is nothing new.
So, you are saying the Russians are the good guys?! So, by your logic, why don’t we just go and take over Canada and Mexico. It’s the neighborly thing to do.
Basically a Russian Civil War with Russian speakers killing Russian speakers. It appears to West is ready to fight the Russian Federation to the last Ukrainian. Prolonging the conclusion of this war has been just the latest foreign policy crime, although it’s very fashionable to wave gold and blue flag right under your pronouns on social media.
Every time I see one of those people, I basically say “Yea, the nation of Ukraine thanks you for putting the flag up. Couldn’t have done it without you”
Ukrainian is as close to Russian as Spanish is to French. They are two different countries with different languages and cultures.
In 1654, Ukraine and Russia needed translators to sign the Treaty of Pereyaslav.
Where do you get your information from?!
Wow, they needed translators in the 17th century? Hmm, well shoot; I need a translator to read English of that period too. Entire empires from that period don’t exist any longer and numerous European countries have had their borders revised since then (Romania, Germany, Poland, Russia, etc.). Lets neglect the last 300 years, shall we?
Anytime the agents of MY government has had nearly complete alignment on a foreign crisis, it has ended in tragedy and taken 20 years to unwind.
Putting Russia in an existential crisis by funneling weapons into what amounts to a breakaway province, is as unethical and as unwise as courting that province to break away.
Haha there’s no logic or facts there. He probably believes the 2020 election was stolen, regardless of 60 court cases all so weak they couldn’t even make it to trial and an extensive recount in Maricopa county that turned up nothing at all.
We’ll see how it ends – or remains frozen. I see Zelensky as having failed in his basic responsibility to protect his people – he now presides over a war-torn country. I see my own country fighting a proxy war via NATO and the Russians acting in accordance with their own version of the Monroe Doctrine. With a greater than 8th grade understanding of geopolitics, the situation is not as simple as “Putin is a maniac.”
You literally just said “Basically a Russian Civil War with Russian speakers killing Russian speakers.” When that was clearly pointed out as false, you didn’t even address it.
And now you’re saying they’re separate countries?
What you write lacks integrity.
Being denied “standing” means the evidence presented is not even considered, not the case is weak.
You really are the poster child for intellectual laziness and emotional neediness. Have the integrity to investigate something before you repeat it – especially if it is defamatory.
*All* of the cases had no specific allegations and no evidence. *One* case did not have standing. Which could have easily been cured by refiling it. Why wasn’t it? Because it *also* had no specific allegations and no evidence and would have also been dismissed for that reason.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-courts-election/fact-check-courts-have-dismissed-multiple-lawsuits-of-alleged-electoral-fraud-presented-by-trump-campaign-idUSKBN2AF1G1
I’m saying the Russians are the less bad guys in this war.
It’s very strange you would come to a Russia is a good guy conclusion if you read Amnesty International’s reports on Russian war crimes.
The simplest explanation is you didn’t, and are choosing to support your confirmation bias for emotional reasons through intellectually lazy actions.
I haven’t seen that report. It would have been nice if you had posted a link.
Stop making excuses and be more diligent.
Hey, support your claims, I did. Don’t be so lazy.
I’ve not read of Russian military camping out in civilian areas. If that had been in am IA report, it would have been all over the MSM.
It’s a poor idea to believe State department figures. There are other, more plausible casualty numbers for Russian forces. It’s fine if you want to take a side, but that typically interferes with understanding what is a complex problem that is poorly reported on by governement and mainstream sources.
I included the wikipedia tables with other estimates
Still not credible, There is a full blown propaganda war on both sides
Remember the state department reported every month to the public that we were winning in Afghanistan and Iraq
After we fled we insisted that the puppet governments we installed would stand for at least several months, they collapsed in a week
And not a isolated incident, we lied about Vietnam too
80,000 deaths are simply not credible, especially since there are no mentions of new brigades or divisions being transferred to fight in the war.
Which means most of their invasion force roughly around 200,000 are still alive since they are making advances every week and taking pretty much zero losses.
Consider this, Ukraine recently raised the draft age to 70, and started drafting women
Russia, still has no draft, didn’t raise their draft age and their standing army is mostly sitting in Russia with no new divisions being transferred to Ukraine. And every week they are making advances
“80,000 deaths are simply not credible” It is up to 80,000 casualties, including injured, not just deaths.
“Consider this, Ukraine recently raised the draft age to 70, and started drafting women
Russia, still has no draft,” True, but it is not just about warm bodies. If they run out of ammo, are they just going to gnaw at them? It is obvious that Russia has a lot of ammo, but it appears that a lot of their advanced capabilities are waning, or they wouldn’t be throwing anti-ship missiles at cities, etc.
So, yes there is propaganda on both sides, but it is obvious that Russia is struggling to keep the pressure on right now, and for Ukraine to be putting missiles on target in Crimea shows that they may have some capabilities that the Russians can’t counter.
I suspect that, short of nukes, that we will see a major turning of the tides in the next couple of months. Just remember, it has taken a while for Ukraine forces to learn how to use non-Russian weapons, but now they are showing some proficiencies.
Russia drafted 134 500 in March. But of course, that has NOTHING to do with the ‘special operation’ they started in February. Putin said so, so it must be true.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-drafts-134500-conscripts-says-they-wont-go-ukraine-2022-03-31/
By October, the US will be out of arms to send Ukraine. We have already sent 50% of all our Stingers and Javalins. Now, we are sending artillery and ammunition. But, we cannot airlift enough to counter the Russians.
“But, we cannot airlift enough to counter the Russians.”
Oh BS. Artillery rounds are in Germany and Poland and will be moved by truck-rail to the border with Ukraine. NATO allies can be replenished using boats.
Russia will run out of tanks and BMPs before Ukraine runs out of NLAWs, Javelins, Stugnas, AT-4’s, and Carl-Gustaf’s.
The Putin appeasers never run out of excuses, though.
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/us-militaerexperte-michael-kofman-die-ukraine-steht-vor-einem-dilemma-a-bf8d606b-38e7-4e98-acbe-d37e6a7c019c
Not
The US has about 30,000 GMLS rockets in inventory and can make about 9000 a year. About 16 M142 launcher trucks have been received which could launch a few hundred a day.
Given what’s been budgeted, the US may plan on sending up to 10,000 GMLS rockets and fill in M142s as needed. Being able to volley nearly 100 rockets in a single strike and sustain attacks of several hundred per day for months seems reasonable.
The US has far more Airlift and logistical capacity than needed to supply Ukraine indefinitely at this rate. Logistics what the US does better than anyone.
Poland had announced they intend to build 500 HIMARS and a ludicrous amount of ammo for them in their country. How long to scale that up? Probably about the time supplies run low.
Some poor Russian tourists posted the Ukrainian bombing of some military bases on Crimea near a beach they were resting on, due precisely to the Imperialists helping them.
Now the beaches are deserted of sunbathing tourists. The gall of that bunch. Can’t Russia enjoy its recently stolen territory in peace?
I think the most significant factor is that the beach was filled with Russian tourists.
Who decides “I know, I’ll take the family to sunbathe in a war zone. That’s the best place for this year’s vacation.”?
To me this says that the Russian population is unaware that a war is going on at all. That they’ve actually swallowed the story (whatever it is) about why the shops are suddenly empty of all imported goods and why internet is shut off.
Well, at least some of them might have a clue now.
It’s probably really cheap to stay there! 😉 So with all the sanctions it’s liable to be the only place Russians can afford to vacation this summer. 😉
There are also a significant number of ethnic Russian Crimean residents that are choosing to leave home. Not just tourists cutting their holiday short.
Yeah. Those that were sent there to russify Crimea feel that the wind is changing.
Ha ha. Good one. It must be slowly seeping into the Russian headspace that isn’t some ‘special operation’ in Ukraine, it’s something going horribly wrong.