Ray Kurzweil predicted Technological Singularity nearly 20 years ago. Elon Musk could enable a world of economic abundance with real-world AI. Robotaxi and Teslabot will transform the world more than car and the first industrial revolution.
The Technological Singularity is a predicted point when technological growth becomes radically faster.
Real World AI would be general artificial human level intelligence. Capabilities to provide broad levels of human jobs and tasks.
Teslabots able to perform loading and deliveries to massively boost the supply chain.
Teslabots able to perform manufacturing tasks in the factory.
Teslabots able to use machines built for humans.
Teslabots able to work in factories to make factories self replicating.
Teslabots able to perform mining.
These capabilities would make economic growth massively exponential.
They would be able to rapidly lower the cost of other Teslabots and increase production from millions to trillions of Teslabots.
The wealth and production capabilities would make it easier to devote more resources to improving artificial intelligence, robotics and manufacturing and all other research. Just as our current economy that is 100 times larger than the economy of the late 18th century has the resources to accelerate science and technological research and development.
Tesla sells Model Ys for about $60000, but it currently costs them about $30000-40000 to make them. A Teslabot is 1/30th of the mass of a Model Y. It would use 1/30th of the batteries. The software is an overall cost of development. If billions of bots are produced then the cost would trend toward the cost of the hardware plus Apple iPhone-like margins including the software (say 40% gross margin). At Model Y cost of $30k then the hardware cost for Teslabot will go to $1000. $2000 with margins and software. A bot can work for 8000 hours in a year. 8760 hours in a year. $2000 divided by 8000 hours is $0.25. If you add 10 cents per hour for electricity then it is $0.35 per hour. Going beyond that is bots can work in the factory and work cheaper than humans. Currently 15000 workers in Tesla China factory. Replace all of them with $0.35 per hour bots. Reduce labor cost component. If a lot of bots can increase production rates. by 2X then all costs spread over more units. Bot-produced solar and batteries can lower the cost of energy by vastly increasing the supply. Those trends could get us to $500-1000 per bot costs and lower energy costs.
In terms of the strict definition of super-intelligence, this would be a soft take off version of super-intelligence. It would be 100 years to get to a billion times total human level intelligence. Production of quadrillions of human level bots to colonize the solar system would reach a billion times ten billion in the 22nd century.
Adding in molecular nanotechnology, say in the 2030s would supercharge the Teslabot technological singularity to a semi-hard takeoff.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.