Demand for lithium-ion batteries is set to grow six-fold by 2032, according to Benchmark. Accordingly, the world needs more than 300 new mines to be built by 2035 if raw material supply is to keep up with this demand, according to a new analysis by Benchmark.
However, recycling could help reduce the number of mines needed. Without recycling, for example, we will need 62 cobalt mining projects by 2035, according to Benchmark; with recycling, this falls to 38.
Scrap from gigafactories will be the primary source of recyclable battery material for the next decade, according to Benchmark’s Recycling Report. End-of-life batteries are not expected to become a major source of material until the 2030s as electric vehicles sold now won’t be scrapped for another ten years or so, according to Benchmark.
Benchmark forecasts this scrap will account for 78% of the pool of recyclable materials in 2025. This year Benchmark expects more than 30 GWh of process scrap to be available for recycling, growing ten-fold across the next decade.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
This kind of exponential extrapolation is OK in the short term, but becomes iffy when taken out to this length of time. Sodium-sulfur batteries can have an energy density that is not disastrously lower than lithium-chemistries and are in some kind of production now. They are less sensitive to winter temperatures and have a good potential to be cheaper. There is some risk that these alternaive battery chemistries will take over and the age of lithium batteries starts to come to and end when you are talking 2040. The shorter term you extrapolate, the more likely it is that lithium will keep growing in the way it has been growing recently and the longer you extrapolate the more you will end up being disastrously wrong (like the limits to growth people or the peak oil people).
It would be interesting to see a calculation of what it would take in terms of volume, investment, energy, DeltaV and tech to make asteroid mining meaningful compared to current methods.
How much of these metals do we need to mine?
How many asteroids need to be exploited to reach that target?
Do we need nuclear propulsion first?
How much must the raw material be purified before moved to earth?
Is it possible to use mass drivers considering where the space mines will be located?
Can the stuff be de-orbited into a lake or something to get the stuff intact to the ground?
Is this feasible from a security standpoint? (orbital bombardment)