Russia Retreats to South Side of Oskil River

Ukrainian arm forces appears to have forced Russia’s military to retreat to the south side of the Oskil River. This means all of the area around Kupyansk and Izium have been retaken.

The collapse of Russian lines seems to show the effectiveness of new Ukrainian tactics and US intelligence. Ukraine used Himars precision long-range artillery and sabotage to destroy key ammo depots and command centers. Russia’s military was depending upon lots of ammunition to maintain intense artillery bombardment. Russia’s military has a rigid and inflexible command structure.

Ukraine has captured a lot of Russian equipment because this was a hasty disorganized retreat. The captured equipment weakens Russia and strengthens Ukraine.

Russia does not seem like they will be able to address the key factors for this success. US satellites and intelligence have been able to precisely identify ammo depots and command centers. Russia has no response to precision long-range Himars artillery.

Russia cannot turn on a lot of their radar sensors because Ukraine has some radar seeking missiles. Ukraine does not fire those missiles but uses them to identify the location of key installations and equipment.

It seems like only a matter of months before Russia has to completely retreat from Ukraine. Four or five more operations of this scale will push Russia out. Russia loses thousands of soldiers and lots of equipment. Russia will not be able to recruit and train soldiers at the speed and scale needed to do anything. More troops will not matter if Russia cannot address their disadvantages against long-range precision artillery.

Russia cannot train or retrain air force pilots to make the air force effective.

It would take years to address the many logistical, equipment and military tactic problems. Russia failed to do this after the Chechnya wars decades ago.

Ukrainian forces advanced to positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 10. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Velyky Burlyk at the T2111 and T2114 intersection and Khotomlya on the east bank of the Pechenhy Reservoir.

11 thoughts on “Russia Retreats to South Side of Oskil River”

  1. Well after all the support we have given them – is it $100 BILLion? The HIMARS, Western Intelligence and sabotage was stunningly effective. But the Russians knew of the troop build up in advance. They reinforced Kherson, and rumor has it sent 3 Corps to north of Mariupol to stymie a third Ukrainian counter offensive. Russians consider the Black sea coast, Crimean water source and the ZNPP much more important than open steppe and forests.

    Ignoring any countries over 9 on the power scale Brian used – So the number 2 power is up against the number 1, 7, 8 ranked powers and the rest of the EU?

    The oil and gas Ukraine receives and uses for it’s army is from Russia by way of Belarus.

    Brian quote – “Any war, any capable opponent hits the many dams or the high speed rail crossing points.”

    Again, the US would have bombed the electric grid and power plants, water treatment, communication nodes, sewage plants on day 1. After 6 months, and a setback, the Russians just made a limited electric grid attack in conjunction with shutting down ZNPP. There were a few attacks on rail and refineries back in the spring.

    I do not know why it has been a slow squeeze from Russia, but they have always had more effective options that they have not used… and winter is near. Seems like it is theirs to lose, or win.

    The only guaranteed winners are China, Western MIC, oil/gas and Biden’s kickbacks. China is really happy that Western equipment and ammunition reserves are being depleted, and Russias being weakened is BONUS for China. They are really happy getting a discount on oil and gas, while their Western economic competitors are paying more. They are getting a chance to see military doctrine and experience with these potential opponent’s high tech weapons, at some one elses expense.

    Guaranteed losers are first and foremost Ukraine, one of the poorest countries in Europe before the war, now SEVERELY in debt… they deserve sympathy, but will likely be thrown under the bus. Fun Fact: Almost all the Ukrainian grain is being sent to Europe to a smidge of their debt. Secondly, Europe – it’s peoples and industry, which relied on cheap energy to be cost competitive.

  2. “Ukraine has captured a lot of Russian equipment because this was a hasty disorganized retreat. The captured equipment weakens Russia and strengthens Ukraine.”

    Propaganda nonsense. You need more reality-based sources rather than propaganda war-based sources. Since reality-based sources exist, I must conclude that you are ideologically captured and cognitive-dissonance controlled.

    The retreat was orderly and well-planned, with minimal Russian casualties or equipment losses. The websites which show Russian equipment “abandoned as the Russians fled in panic” are just the usual propaganda organs. Fake.

    Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces, out in the open without robust defensive positions, and with their supply lines also out in the open, are undoubtedly being degraded by the Russian air force.

    The territory was abandoned because the forces along the line were not equipped to effectively defend the line, and holding it was not worth the resources required, resources which could be employed elsewhere for the more effective achievement of SMO aims.

    Perhaps you disagree. Time will tell what is real, what is propaganda, and what is wishful thinking.

    • The only question is if it wasn’t worth defending those lines why fight to get them in the first place why thousands of Russian soldiers died in month-long fights to get them? Based on your logic the Russians should be completely stupid, which I don’t think they are. Second, you cannot deny the importance of the transportation hubs Izyum and Kupiansk that were lost by the Russians. Third, you have no idea or reliable information regarding the amount of amo that the Russians lost. Is like if you don’t like the info let’s call it propaganda.

  3. This is only a pyrrhic victory as Russia lost is minimal and Ukraine lost is colossal. Ukr lost thousands of well trained soldiers and most equipment they accumulated in last six months. Russia started to attacked Ukraine key infastructures after this humiliatied failure. Winter is always the best friend of Russia in wars. I don’t see how Ukraine manage to stand up to Russia in coming winter with no eletricity.

    • Ukraine’s losses in the north are minimal, in contrast with the south where they are considerable; because they were not opposed by retreating Russians almost at all-Russians were unable to create a defense, because the pace of the offensive was faster than the pace of the retreat. In the north Ukraine got a strategic advantage since they control now the main supply line to the Donbas region from Belgorod (in Russia). In fact, Belgorod lies wide open. Russians can\t supply their forces easily because they don’t have enough trucks and their logistical forces are relatively small. Therefore they use the railroad system. If you look at the map of transportation of the region you will see that now Russians need to go around thousands of kilometers to simply resupply their forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. There is no way they can quickly move their forces from place to place where they are needed. This means that the entire war effort on the Russian part is endangered. They lost initiative and will go on the defensive. Militarily they did not yet lose the war-unless they panic and the collapse of the frontline will continue; but in long run, they still have dozens of advantages that make them inflexible at the negotiating table, like the fact that they repair around 400+ pieces of armored equipment each month, and their economy is in war mode right now. However Ukraine knows this, hence offensive now.

    • The reverse of these claims is clearly true. Russia lost thousands of troops captured or killed, Ukrainian losses were minimal – that’s what happens in a rout. The Russian’s impotent “revenge” launch of cruise missiles at civilian infrastructure was limited in effect by Ukrainian air defense and will likely be completely repaired in days or weeks – long before it has any relevance to winter.

      This defeat of the Russians was a very likely the turning point of the war. Putin was gambling that hanging on into the winter in what seemed like a stalemate would tempt defections from European unity on sanctions and support for Ukraine. Proving that they can decisively beat the Russians ends this scenario. Europe will hang tough and accelerate arms shipments. Ukrainians captured a lot of armor and ammunition they can turn around and put into the offensive. The part of the Russian population that’s been effectively deluded by State propaganda is starting to glimpse the reality of total defeat.

    • Russia is still one of the main suppliers of equipment to the Ukraine. It is soviet era trash like T-72 tanks that were abandonned by the dozens, but it is the same kind of soviet trash the Ukrainian army is trained on and can comfortably use with short notice. The offensive in the north was a not a retreat by the russians, it was a rout. Ukraine took small losses by all accounts.

    • Indeed. Propaganda is unprecedentedly prolific. But the fog of war will be swept away eventually, at which times reality will become clear.

      Russia is strong and patient and raking in massive profits from West’s catastrophically backfiring economic war. Time is clearly on Russia’s side. The longer the war drags on, the richer Russia becomes and the more immiserated and destabilized Europe becomes.

      We are watching a civilizational change happening before our eyes. The old Neocon/Neoliberal order is passing away.

      All in due course.

      • Russia is simultaneously saying the sanctions have benefitted them and are acting desperate to end sanctions. What we know is that they don’t have the chips to make anything and are having trouble getting spare parts; e.g. they’re currently cannibalizing aircraft to keep the ones they have running. They used to have engineers back in the USSR, but the engineers they still have are now very old and mostly retired because they’ve barely trained anyone who can make anything since the collapse of the USSR 30 years ago. Russia is a gas station in a wasteland; my best guess based on their behaviour is that the sanctions have been catastrophic.

  4. Maybe Ukraine could revise this song:
    We fired our guns and the Russians kept acom’in
    There wasn’t nigh as many as there was a while ago
    We fired once more and they began to runnin
    Across the Oskil River back to ole Moscow

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