Ukraine Could Take Izyum and Kherson this Month

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Ukrainian forces advanced 50km (30 miles) deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8 and took control of Balakliya city.

In the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.

Ukraine has already recaptured 1000 square kilometers of territory.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces should be able to take Kupyansk and Izyum in the Northeast. This would cut off one of the supply lines and force the retreat of about 20,000 Russian soldiers. Ukraine could also take Kherson up to the Dnipro river in the south. This would again force the retreat of another 20,000 Russian soldiers. Ukraine would retake key cities and advance 20-50 miles. They would regain about 2000-4000 square kilometers in territory.

Taking Kherson would allow Ukraine to cut off water to Crimea. This would make things logistically much more difficult for Russia in Crimea. It could also put them in range to threaten a rail bridge on the other side of Crimea. Taking out that bridge would cut off most supplies and reinforcement to Russian forces in Crimea.

Denys is a Ukrainian so his videos are biased. However, he has accurate maps and covers the likely offensive plans that Ukraine wants to achieve.

Taking out the flanks of Russia’s positions is the path to Ukraine pushing Russian forces out of the country. It is unclear if military operations on both sides will become static during the winter months from late October to March or April. It could still take another year for Russia to be forced out. The fastest this could happen is Izyum and Kherson fall this month, then Crimea bridge gets cutoff and then Himars hits key ammo depots and command centers for 2-4 months. Crimea and another similar sized area falls on the Northeast side. Six months seems like the fastest it could happen.

There are reports that Morgues in Mariupol have been processing 87000-123,000 civilian bodies. There are also reports that Russia has had 25,000-50,000 soldiers killed. Ukraine has also likely lost upwards of 20,000 soldiers. The war has likely killed over 250,000 people and injured three times that number.

21 thoughts on “Ukraine Could Take Izyum and Kherson this Month”

  1. If history said us something, it’s Russia always become much stronger after each big war (Sweden, Napoleon, WW1, WW2). This war only make Russia stronger. It has no problem with hardware (weapons), fixing and improving its software (traing, organizing and tactics) everyday. Ukraine have no chance and this war is a catastrophic failure of US in its geopolitical games .

    • Your saying isn’t based reality.

      Russia didn’t get stronger after crimea, Georgia, Chechnya, afganistan etc.

      And the deep rooted corruption, theft, degradation their military suffered won’t be fixed by the time this war is over unless it continues on for several years.

      Nor will the supply shortages be solved, while both sides are pointing fingers at each other saying they’re running out of armaments and their factories can’t keep up.
      But only one side is bombarding cities and rural areas with dumbfire weapons and that is Russia, the west still has plenty of smart weapons are are still using them.

    • A 20 x 20 mile patch of land isn’t small. Also this land used to be held by Russians. Also the Russians seem to have been caught completely unprepared to defend this front.

      • Or it could be a tactical withdrawal, like they did around Kharkov earlier in the year, and then recaptured lost territory once Ukraine had stretched its offense to far?

  3. There is a lot of propaganda and it is difficult to know what is happening. Russian tactics are bizarre. Don’t know why they’re not attacking power, telecommunications, railway and administration infrastructure like we did in Iraq. We pretty much levelled Iraq before we went in. Made things a lot easier.

    • “Don’t know why [Russia] they’re not attacking power, telecommunications, railway and administration infrastructure like we did in Iraq.”

      Oh man that’s easy. Russia doesn’t have air superiority and doesn’t have enough cruise missiles. Fly a bomber over Ukraine and you will lose it. Even cruise missiles are being shot down and Russia can’t make many more.

      • BUT they had the ammo in the beginning and didn’t use it to take out those targets did they? So they’re not waging war like we did in Iraq. That was my point.

        If I’d gone to war, the first thing I’d have done was take out all the power stations, telecommunications, railway infrastructure. Even if it is civilian but could be used for a war, I’d have taken them out.

        • It makes more sense if Putin thought this would be a 3 day war. If Putin thought this wasn’t a 3 day war and what we see now is “its all going according to the plan” then he is an idiot.

          (not that thinking this would be a 3 day war excuses him from being an idiot)

          • To be fair everybody was expecting Kyiv to fall in a few weeks. The authorities even started giving rifles to the general population. This is quite a desperate act. And look now. It would mandé a perfecto sense to take Ukraine in a few weeks, and leave the western contrite with a fait accompli . Guess what didn’t work that well. But Putin has the luxury to declare his plans after the achievements are accomplished.

            Like most wars it started for stood reasons (all the sides are to blame, BTW) and people die for real

            I am afraid that this conflict will not yeah the humanity a lesson but rather instigate even a fiber larger escalation

        • Some of argumentation would be completely of the official reasoning, if a ‘special’ invasion (2022) would have started with eroding infrastructure on newly approved “Donetsk People’s Republic” (population ~2.3M) and “Luhansk People’s Republic” (~1.4M) or even areas with lower share of ethnic Russian population. Just for this reviewing of a most opposing argumentation towards emphasing Western point of view (and with recognizing that documentation about new Republics shows examples/tendency of less liberal values compared to a democracy emphased Western, Ukrainian Kiev POV):

          2014, Republic of Crimea
          “The referendum was held despite the opposition from the Ukrainian government. Official results reported about 95.5% of participating voters in Crimea (turnout was 83%) were in favour of seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia. The results of referendum were questioned; another report by Evgeny Bobrov, a member of the Russian President’s Human Rights Council, suggested the official results were inflated and only 15% to 30% of Crimeans eligible to vote actually voted for the Russian option.”
          “On the 21 March the Republic of Crimea became a federal Subject of Russia.”
          Crimean public opinion
          “Prior to Russian occupation, support for joining Russia was 23% in a 2013 poll, down from 33% in 2011. A joint survey by American government agency Broadcasting Board of Governors and polling firm Gallup was taken during April 2014. It polled 500 residents of Crimea. The survey found that 82.8% of those polled believed that the results of the Crimean status referendum reflected the views of most residents of Crimea, whereas 6.7% said that it did not. 73.9% of those polled said that they thought that the annexation would have a positive impact on their lives, whereas 5.5% said that it would not. 13.6% said that they did not know.”
          “A comprehensive poll released on 8 May 2014 by the Pew Research Centre surveyed local opinions on the annexation. Despite international criticism of 16 March referendum on Crimean status, 91% of those Crimeans polled thought that the vote was free and fair, and 88% said that the Ukrainian government should recognise the results.
          In a survey completed in 2019 by a Russian company FOM 72% of surveyed Crimean residents said their lives have improved since annexation. At the same time only 39% Russians living in the mainland said the annexation was beneficial for the country as a whole which marks a significant drop from 67% in 2015.
          Whilst the Russian government actively cited local opinion polls to argue that the annexation was legitimate (i.e. supported by the population of the territory in question), some authors have cautioned against using surveys concerning identities and support for the annexation conducted in “oppressive political environment” of Russian-held Crimea.”
          Population of Crimea 2014 is about 2.28 million (~67% ethnic Russians, ~16% ethnic Ukrainians, ~11% Crimea Tatares)

          Public opinion about Euromaidan
          “According to December 2013 polls (by three different pollsters), between 45% and 50% of Ukrainians supported Euromaidan, while between 42% and 50% opposed it. The biggest support for the protest was found in Kyiv (about 75%) and western Ukraine (more than 80%). Among Euromaidan protesters, 55% were from the west of the country, with 24% from central Ukraine and 21% from the east.”
          “A study of public opinion in regular and social media found that 74% of Russian speakers in Ukraine supported the Euromaidan movement, and a quarter opposed.” (~2014)
          Joining European Union
          “A November 2013 poll by the same institute found the same result with 70.8% aged 18 to 29 wanting to join the European Union while 39.7% was the national average of support.”
          Protests across Ukraine
          Kyiv (peak attendees) ~400-800k
          Donetsk ~10000
          Luhansk ~1000
          Mariupol ~400
          “An Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation survey of protesters conducted 7 and 8 December 2013 found that 92% of those who came to Kyiv from across Ukraine came on their own initiative, 6.3% was organised by a public movement, and 1.8% were organised by a party. 70% Said they came to protest the police brutality of 30 November, and 54% to protest in support of the European Union Association Agreement signing. Among their demands, 82% wanted detained protesters freed, 80% wanted the government to resign, and 75% want president Yanukovych to resign and for snap elections. The poll showed that 49.8% of the protesters are residents of Kyiv and 50.2% came from elsewhere in Ukraine. 38% Of the protesters are aged between 15 and 29, 49% are aged between 30 and 54, and 13% are 55 or older. A total of 57.2% of the protesters are men.
          In the eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv, 29% of the population believe “In certain circumstances, an authoritarian regime may be preferable to a democratic one.” ”

          Summarizing, there’s differences in mentality between groups depending on age and geographical region located (western/central/mid-east and mid-north/mid-south/east/Crimea) and (yet to recognize) date of surveys/pollings?
          What the real opinion within the population (being foundation for diplomatic approach and persistent structures) and whose infrastructure (Russophone Ukrainian, Ukrainophone Ukrainian (or Ukrainophone Russian ?)) would be on attack then?

      • Rusia has sure superiority but it is quite far from an absolute one. From my armchair it seems that both sides do stupid mistakes. This time is seems the Russkies have been outdoing themselves.

        If I put my rationalizing hat on, I could image Ukraine got some help, either logistical, or even actual shipments, which effectively disabled the Russian aviation and blindsided their intelligence.

        There are some reports that Russians are shipping troops and supplies using helicopters. That’s a setting to be caught off guard. I doubt they are faking it to lure the Ukrainian forces in a trap. Of course, all the arguments about stretched supply lines, and stained logistics apply to them too. This is quite a risky attack which can turn to disaster in a couple of weeks if the Russian side manages to bring move forces and supplies.

        They there are other aspects here. It might turn out that hehe Russian casualties are the highest of the whole be war. Might be unacceptably hight. Especially when the Russian officials deny the Ukrainian success in such a sloppy way that lose credibility even inside Russia .

    • It’s hard to know what Putin or his rotating Generals actually think, beyond their obvious strategy to just destroy everything in sight.
      But “taking out powerstations” means destroying nuclear plants, which would release multiple Chernobyls that would blow-back throughout Europe and possibly bring Europe directly into the fight, and even effect Russian citizens, engaging/enraging them against the war that propaganda keeps saying is just a “military action” not a war.

      • I suspect shelling near nuclear plants might be Putin’s way to increase fear of nuclear power in Europe so Europeans will buy more Russian gas

    • Russia did not want to do any of this, because their logistics sucked, they need roads, bridges, and most importantly-rails to get anywhere and supply the army with what is needed. Advancing into territory that was degraded to the level of medieval times is a bad idea for them. Additionally, war was not thought of with the goal of removing threat and re-creating the country a new-an Iraq case-by a huge economy with absurd levels of technology. The goal was to aid underdeveloped countries by annexing industry, infrastructure, and most importantly-people, to use them as resources for an empire. As result, Russians did not want to kill and destroy too much initially, and once they realized their plan went to hell they still did not want to destroy key elements of infrastructure, because they need it themselves. Besides if you destroy infrastructure it means you cannot sue the threat of destroying it to pressure the other side. To sum up-Russia was weak is weak and remains weak hence a very different approach.

  4. Russia is in complete control. Everything is going according to plan. Russia is becoming more powerful and profitable every day they are in Ukraine. Russia is in no way a laughing stock. The counter offensive has collapsed and the survivors have withdrawn to Spain. The sanctions have destroyed Europe’s economy while making Russia the richest and most powerful nation to have ever existed. It is impossible to question any of this.

    (I’ll leave it up to the reader to determine if they detect a faint hint of sarcasm in this comment.)

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