Huge announcements in Quantum Computer Technology have been recently made and there is a clear and active path to 4000 by 2025 and 16000+ qubits by 2027. 70 error-mitigated qubits with over 50 step layers of algorithmic capability is believed to be the point where quantum computers will surpass exaflop supercomputers for cracking big problems.
IBM is targeting over 100 error-corrected qubits with the ability to handle over 100 step layers of algorithmic capacity by the end of 2024.
I will be at the Q2B conference next week getting the latest news and announcements about quantum computer hardware, software, business developments and systems. Use the Nextbigfuture discount code for a 20% discount.
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Santa Clara Convention Center, California | December 6-8, 2022
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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How powerful can a quantum computer be compared to a silicon-made transistor computer within a same computer case with the same power consumption?
I’ve heard that it is 10^3 more powerful than a computer of today. I’m not sure however if this the exact number, or if it’s more powerful that I thought.
Also, what are the challenges quantum computing will face?
How does 4000 qubits compare to exascale computers for large whantum-computable problems?
(I know it doesnt work like that, but just as a rough estimate)
If you could get all the qubits usable then it would crush regular exascale computers. With 10-100 petaflop systems and ten year old algorithms classical supercomputers could match about 50 usable algorithmic qubits. More recent work with better algorithms seems to put supercomputers up to about 70 qubit equivalent. But the qubits have to more usable. 70 qubits with 27 layers of capability. How many steps can you go through in the tens of microseconds before it falls apart quantumly? So you want fidelity of 99.99% or better. One error in then thousand. But can error mitigation get you from 99.95% to 99.99%+. Siv to Ten raw qubits to 1 mitigated qubit? 433 raw qubits to 43 to 70 mitigated qubits. Can error correction take us there? 4000 qubits to 500 usable or 400 usable or 100 qubits usable for 100 steps or layers of compute. TBD. IonQ says they have 99.98% good ions. Moderate error mitagation should get us over the 99.99%. There is also the aspect of actually making the algorithms work and getting truly useful results. A lot of scientific experiments and reducing the complexity of problems and then checking results and proving answers and methods.