Thanks to all Nextbigfuture community for your support. This is just an FYI that I have to shutdown comments to articles related to FTX, Binance and Crypto. The level of spam on those articles is insane. There has been a general increase in comment spam. This is causing me to shut comments on various older articles that seem to be chosen as spam flood targets.
If the Nextbigfuture community is interested, I could look at scheduling Youtube livestreams on topics selected by the community. There is also the option of Twitter spaces.
If there are particular topics or news that people want to have investigated, then let me know.
I will now provide my views on the near term future of the world. It is Elon Musk heavy but based upon my detailed analysis of science, technology, supply chain developments, business models this is what I see happening.
My Views on the Future of the World
I think this is a very exciting and interesting time. While there are global financial and other challenges (inflation, recession, crypto market crashes, war, disease), we also sit at what I believe is the dawn of huge positive transformations. We sit at the doorstep to what the site is called, the next big future.
I have looked at the supply chain, business models and funded factories for self-driving cars, batteries and for Lidar. I have looked at space communications, current global communications, technology and business models. I have identified key points of strength and weakness in the various plans and approaches to various disruptive technology. I have identified the most important tracking and forecasting metrics and the correct targets, milestones and inevitable ramping lags.
The Super Heavy Starship will make its first orbital launch attempt next month. Orbital class Super Heavy Starship and catching the booster and the Starship on Mechazilla launch towers will be proven in 2023. This will be like going from small and moderate sized blimps that are all Hindenburg-like and crash after each use to Jumbo jets. However, the jumbo jets will have 15 to 30 times the speed.
Here are some of my predictions for SpaceX from 2023-2033.
Predictions for the SpaceX Decade
2024 SpaceX revenue more than NASA budget
2024 Reach 100+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.
First military payload point to point in 2023
2025 1000+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.
SpaceX Decade Summary-Keys to Huge Results
Super Heavy Starship
Mechazilla Catch and Relaunch
100X to 1000X Revenue
Gen 2 and 2+ Satellites
1000X to 1000000X Launches
10000X to 10 Million times payload
Moon Landings and Development
Mars Landings and Development
Self-Driving Robotaxi Future
I have analyzed the future of self-driving and robotaxi.
I have looked at the supply chain and funded factories for batteries. I have looked at the status and progress of dozens of self-driving car companies. I have looked at the supply chain for self-driving cars and the factories planned and funded for robotaxis and for the key component, Lidar.
The self-driving car companies that are dependent upon having Lidar at scale have a huge problem. The orders to justify the large factories and the needed factories are not yet being built in sufficient quantity.
This leads me to conclude that Tesla will succeed and be the first and dominant winner with self-driving robotaxis.
I have also performed a decision tree analysis. Tesla has removed Lidar and ultrasonic sensors. It has only take a few weeks tto months to retrain the neural nets. Clearly, 99% of the usage does not require those sensors. If Tesla finds that they need any of those sensors for an important but rare set of instances, then Tesla can add back the minimum sufficient sensors. This will be the minimum required amount and the neural nets will re-adapt in weeks to months. Conversely, if the Lidar dependent companies discover that Tesla has succeeded without those sensors, it will take years to switch to camera only. It has taken over two years for Tesla to work on a camera only AI approach to have no Lidar and no ultrasonics. Tesla removed Lidar over six years ago.
If Tesla wins full self driving with the camera only approach, they could have the 20 million robotaxi fleet needed for 1 trillion miles per year by 2030.
Owning and driving rapid innovation in transportation, supply chains, logistics, robotics, communications and AI will be insanely profitable. Someone who was outcompeting large companies with only a few million in resources has about a trillion in resources and will soon have trillions in profits. Elon Musk still has unlimited ambition. If he succeeds in transforming Twitter into a superior version of Wechat this will change the internet, finance and banking.
Quantum Computers and Antiaging
I will be going to a quantum computer conference Dec 6-8, 2022. I will have many interviews with leading scientists, technologists and business leaders in that field. I am optimistic that there will be success with Quantum computers and it will matter for the world.
Here is a video of an interview with one of the leaders in the field of new quantum technology.
I am closing tracking Antiaging and aging reversal work.
Thanks again for being involved.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
12 thoughts on “Nextbigfuture on the NBF Community and the Future of the World”
Tech doesnt happen in a cultural vacuum.
I did not know about the spam problem. I assumed comments were turned off on the crypto posts to prevent negative comments. I assume you are pro-crypto but most commentators are not.
I have to strongly disagree with the Lidar business. More kinds of sensors is better. Why make it less than superhuman? Which human sense would you like to give up? Which are you better off without? If it can’t do a better job, I’ll drive.
I’d want my car to be able to drive well in the fog, in a downpour, through a fire, rather than it saying: “Okay, I can’t see, you take over” and stopping in the middle of a fire. And, yes, I have driven through brush fires and forest fires. I was at a retreat and the whole mountain caught fire, and they said: “Evacuate Now!” If I had stopped anywhere, that probably would have been it. Waves of sparks and flames crossing the road for miles and miles. Clear, then flames, then clear again. And I’d like it to be able to drive with a bug splattered on its eyeball. You can’t just stop on a bridge on the freeway because it splattered a bug.
I wanted Elon to back away from buying Twitter because I thought he could spend his time and money more gainfully. There are plenty of platforms that are less sensorial than Twitter if you get blocked on there. Advertisers don’t want to be associated with a hateful slangfest so a light moderation platform is not going to attract many big brand advertisers.
I’m on the same page as Elon Musk in some respects, but certainly not all of them. I will say that I’d rather see his projects succeed than fail. I know some people who want to see his businesses fail so that they can see him fail, and I’m adamant that those folks I know have no idea what they’re saying.
I don’t know whether or not what he’s has done over at Twitter thus far can be said to be good. There have been accounts banned for making fun of him (granted, some of those were related to impersonation, which I’m also against). He also ended remote work for employees, which I honestly think is ridiculous. Though, I’m biased in favor of remote work.
Elon has also– depending on what you consider a viable news source, and I’ve not seen them all– been mulling placing all of Twitter behind a pay wall, which I think is a bad idea. Artists are already fleeing to TikTok to be seen because they say Twitter has been hampering their businesses by flagging legitimate content (even before Elon made the news for taking over).
I don’t know enough about WeChat to know how it compares to the current iteration of Twitter. But, Twitter was different. Has it remained so since its inception? I’d say so. Making it less unique seems a bad gamble [to me].
Twitter is currently under “rule or ruin” attack by the left, who fear the consequences of not having control over a major online platform. Nobody has yet tried to run a platform rejecting the left’s censorship demands without coming under sustained attack. Parler, Gab, you name it: You either sign on to the left’s program of censorship, or they try to destroy you.
I don’t think Musk has had enough control yet to be able to prevent moderation decisions he disagrees with; He could probably order a banning, or reverse one after it happens, but he didn’t have enough bandwidth for detailed control, nor was the site being run by particularly loyal employees who would care about his policies.
I think in a couple of months we’ll be able to look at what Twitter is doing in the way of moderation, and blame/credit Musk for it. Right Twitter is a war zone, and the fog of war is impenetrable.
Hmm, yeah, you’re right. Having been through two corporate buyouts and restructurings at my job, it’s true that we don’t know what Twitter will look like in a few months. Of course he’ll want people there who care about his vision for the platform, very true.
Being mostly [but not entirely] politically left, it seems to me the loud minority on the left and the loud minority on the right are worried that Twitter will be used for the other’s agenda. Of course, I don’t think it should be used for either. I know people who are worried about *actual* extremists using Twitter to plan stuff like theocratic coups. And I just can’t help thinking, “Come on, y’all, seriously?”
Unrealistic, but the fear is there. People are worried about others using Twitter for their own ends. If we get wrapped up in that fear, then the platform can’t survive as an agent of free speech.
Elon has managed to reduce Tesla’s cap by half.
Have you considered reserving the ability to comment to Patreon members? I rather doubt many spammers would regard that price worth paying, actual spam has to be virtually free to be economically scalable.
Trolling is another matter, of course.
I will look into it. Thanks for the suggestion
Reserving comments for Patreon is likely a very good solution, as long as the site continues to run on the most recent stable PHP versions as they release. Putting a captcha on comment forms also discourages bots and other malicious party spam comments.
Some commenting systems ask questions (ranging from simple calculations on to advanced questions about articles content progressively supporting readers improved understanding)
Thanks for the explanation on spam and trolling (if perceived so, simply tell me (rating system?)).
Comments are closed.