Thanks to all Nextbigfuture community for your support. This is just an FYI that I have to shutdown comments to articles related to FTX, Binance and Crypto. The level of spam on those articles is insane. There has been a general increase in comment spam. This is causing me to shut comments on various older articles that seem to be chosen as spam flood targets.
If the Nextbigfuture community is interested, I could look at scheduling Youtube livestreams on topics selected by the community. There is also the option of Twitter spaces.
If there are particular topics or news that people want to have investigated, then let me know.
I will now provide my views on the near term future of the world. It is Elon Musk heavy but based upon my detailed analysis of science, technology, supply chain developments, business models this is what I see happening.
My Views on the Future of the World
I think this is a very exciting and interesting time. While there are global financial and other challenges (inflation, recession, crypto market crashes, war, disease), we also sit at what I believe is the dawn of huge positive transformations. We sit at the doorstep to what the site is called, the next big future.
I have looked at the supply chain, business models and funded factories for self-driving cars, batteries and for Lidar. I have looked at space communications, current global communications, technology and business models. I have identified key points of strength and weakness in the various plans and approaches to various disruptive technology. I have identified the most important tracking and forecasting metrics and the correct targets, milestones and inevitable ramping lags.
The Super Heavy Starship will make its first orbital launch attempt next month. Orbital class Super Heavy Starship and catching the booster and the Starship on Mechazilla launch towers will be proven in 2023. This will be like going from small and moderate sized blimps that are all Hindenburg-like and crash after each use to Jumbo jets. However, the jumbo jets will have 15 to 30 times the speed.
Predictions for the SpaceX Decade
2024 SpaceX revenue more than NASA budget
2024 Reach 100+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.
First military payload point to point in 2023
2025 1000+ Super heavy Starship to orbit launches.
SpaceX Decade Summary-Keys to Huge Results
Super Heavy Starship
Mechazilla Catch and Relaunch
100X to 1000X Revenue
Gen 2 and 2+ Satellites
1000X to 1000000X Launches
10000X to 10 Million times payload
Moon Landings and Development
Mars Landings and Development
Self-Driving Robotaxi Future
I have looked at the supply chain and funded factories for batteries. I have looked at the status and progress of dozens of self-driving car companies. I have looked at the supply chain for self-driving cars and the factories planned and funded for robotaxis and for the key component, Lidar.
The self-driving car companies that are dependent upon having Lidar at scale have a huge problem. The orders to justify the large factories and the needed factories are not yet being built in sufficient quantity.
This leads me to conclude that Tesla will succeed and be the first and dominant winner with self-driving robotaxis.
I have also performed a decision tree analysis. Tesla has removed Lidar and ultrasonic sensors. It has only take a few weeks tto months to retrain the neural nets. Clearly, 99% of the usage does not require those sensors. If Tesla finds that they need any of those sensors for an important but rare set of instances, then Tesla can add back the minimum sufficient sensors. This will be the minimum required amount and the neural nets will re-adapt in weeks to months. Conversely, if the Lidar dependent companies discover that Tesla has succeeded without those sensors, it will take years to switch to camera only. It has taken over two years for Tesla to work on a camera only AI approach to have no Lidar and no ultrasonics. Tesla removed Lidar over six years ago.
If Tesla wins full self driving with the camera only approach, they could have the 20 million robotaxi fleet needed for 1 trillion miles per year by 2030.
Owning and driving rapid innovation in transportation, supply chains, logistics, robotics, communications and AI will be insanely profitable. Someone who was outcompeting large companies with only a few million in resources has about a trillion in resources and will soon have trillions in profits. Elon Musk still has unlimited ambition. If he succeeds in transforming Twitter into a superior version of Wechat this will change the internet, finance and banking.
Quantum Computers and Antiaging
I will be going to a quantum computer conference Dec 6-8, 2022. I will have many interviews with leading scientists, technologists and business leaders in that field. I am optimistic that there will be success with Quantum computers and it will matter for the world.
I am closing tracking Antiaging and aging reversal work.
Thanks again for being involved.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.