I was interviewed by Lars at BestinTesla. I talked about why robotaxi at scale competition won’t be coming once Tesla solves robotaxi at scale.
Tesla has over 160,000 people currently using FSD and driving 10 million miles per quarter on surface roads with it. The new version 11 is being deployed and switches navigate on Autopilot to FSD software. Highway miles will be included in FSD mileage. First quarter 2023 should see wider usage and highway miles included. This should see total FSD miles increase to 50 million in just the first quarter and total cumulative FSD miles over 100 million.
If Autopilot for highways is fully replaced with FSD for highways, then the billions of miles per year driven using Autopilot will convert to FSD miles.
By mid-2023 there will nearly 5 million Tesla’s on the road. The total miles driven will be over 6 billion miles per month.
Potentially, Tesla FSD could be fully operating or operating in shadow mode for all of those miles.
The increase in data will increase the rate of improvement of the AI.
About 6 billion miles of safer than human driving data is the estimate for how much is needed to convince regulators that a system is safer than human drivers.
Competitors must deploy at least 30,000 robotaxis and drive each about 20,000 miles or some other combination to get to 6 bilion miles.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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