Tesla FSD Version 11 Available to All

Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla FSD Beta version 11 is available to all FSD customers. About 200,000 people who purchased FSD can activate FSD version 11 if they request it.

UPDATE:

This would mean about $1.09 billion in deferred revenue would be recognized for Q4. The 15% of US customers that are currently buying in Q1 and onwards would be fully recognized. This would be about $300M of extra Q1 income for 100% of revenue instead of 50%. If the US Tesla FSD take rate increases to 20% for new purchases and 2% per quarter for more people who previously bought cars but not FSD this would mean about 40,000 more sales per quarter or about $600 million. In 2023, it would be about $3 billion. Increasing take rate and getting those who already bought cars but did not buy FSD purchase is the big prize. Plus, Tesla could improve the highway only enhanced autopilot with superior FSD for highway and add in smart summon in all parking lots.

This would still be pre-robotaxi level. The human still needs to monitor the car. However, it is a significant milestone towards robotaxi level 4 capability. I define robotaxi at scale as one million cars capable of giving humanless rides. Tesla just needs to get the software working and sent out via over the air updates. There would be over one million cars capable of providing those capabilities and a network could be giving rides from customer cars once the software is ready. Other companies chasing robotaxi have to build the dedicated vehicles with the sensors and software and deploy them in cities that approve. The Lidar and other sensors will take years to scale. None of the other companies can get to 1 million robotaxis before 2028 and likely 2035.

Tesla can just continue building cars and every car they make will be robotaxi ready. Tesla is targeting 20 million cars oer year by 2030. 20 million robotaxis with each operating at the usage rate (50,000 miles per year) of an average taxi cab would generate about $1 trillion at $1 per mile.

4 thoughts on “Tesla FSD Version 11 Available to All”

  1. Tesla told Ca DMV they have no intention of making FSD autonomous it is just a driving aid. Please no talk of “robot taxis” those are for companies like Ways and GM that actually spend money on autonomy and drive paying customers now in Ca with no human driver ,and the passenger is not liable, this is something Tesla can’t even project to do ,obviously ,since they have been claiming autonomy they don’t have since 2016,how credulous are some people?

    Reply

Leave a Comment