I have looked at all of the dozens of self-driving car companies. I looked at many of the 80 LIDAR (laser radar) companies. I cut through all of the noise, complexity and confusion.
Robotaxis will change the world and are a multi-trillion opportunity. Companies have spent over a hundred billion dollars already and even more money will spent in the next few years.
This new analysis shows how to predict who will win the all-important battle to dominate the future of robotaxi and by how many years they will lead. It determines what the real important metrics are to track who is winning now and by how much.
Robotaxi technology is complex and there over many companies competing. The technology is complex and involves artificial intelligence and new sensors. This new analysis lets you cut through the noise with clear insight.
Getting the first self-driving cars working to the level of a robotaxi (no human driver needed) is just the beginning. The business models that are being pursued now are critical for the speed of deployment.
How many robotaxis will it take to compete at the level of Uber? Taxis?
What it will take to go beyond to change all of car and truck transportation?
Who is really ahead? How can you tell?
The winners could have a 10X or 100X in their share price. The size of the prize depends upon if there is one single winner with a big lead or if there are multiple winners who reduce the size of the profits.
What will a 30-month lead mean? A 60-month lead?
Can we track it now? What are the right metrics to use?
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
6 thoughts on “Winners in Robotaxi Tech Can 100X? Who Wins? By How Much?”
Brain is heavy invested in Tesla both financially and emotionally, he has proven time and time again that he can’t do un-biased analyses for anything related to Alon Musk.
He should have at least started the video with a disclaimer stating he is invested in Tesla.
I hope Musk gamble of both vision only and directly to full L5 without any L4 shortcut’s and without extensive trails with professional test drivers (letting the customers to do the test drive work for Tesla at their expanse) will be successful, however I have serious doubt about it.
even, if someone invests into a company (for reasons that might be explained, public or obvious), one could not forget a whole ‘other’ society (or societies interests) (?)
but, it would be a more balanced discussion, if participants know about (‘all’ controversial) interests (?)
“to do the test drive work for Tesla at their expanse”, value out of this would be on customer and company sides (and for development of a whole society supportive, considering technical advance and scientific knowledge and experiences), but who could rate/judge what’s the justified&fair share for each person (or persons needs on culturally advanced societies) supporting/driving/developing/investing/etc. (?)
(even, not talking social effects, not quantifiable with numbers)
Tesla is not in the game ,their product has no autonomy,FSD is a drivers assist, it always has a driver with insurance who will take the blame.
Brin should haver presented a slide with Tesla’s annual proclamations since 2016 that now they had it solved, while they rake up hundreds of billions in unfunded liabilities for marketing FSD as having anything to do with autonomy.
GM is scaling quickly. Tesla does not appear to spend anything on FSD,and it shows.
Indeed, and the Falcon 9 will never be able to land propulsively, it is a tall tale, to recover rockets you need parachutes, etc.
Really, “Tesla has not invested anything in FSD” is peak revisionism. You may arbitrarily classify Tesla’s investments as “driver assist” rather than “self driving,” but it is your (a random bystander’s) classification. Why should we believe you rather than what is out on the streets?
So short TSLA. They are obviously massively overvalued if your belief is correct. The only possible basis for even the current reduced market cap which is much greater than most of it’s competitors combined is that it has a huge lead in FSD.
Brian should have made slide with the different miles under assist for the different companies. He said that Tesla was racking up 20-30 million miles per quarter, but he never made a slide with the numbers. Same thing with the LIDAR production numbers for the different companies.
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