The Global Large and Semi truck market is 4 million trucks per year.
From 2016 to 2020, China’s heavy truck sales surged from 728,000 units to 1,617,000 units, hitting new records for the consecutive four years. In 2021, a combination of factors such as sluggish freight market and demand overdraft led to an annualized 14.1% slump in the heavy truck sales to 1.39 million units, a figure projected to be around 1.2 million in 2022. It is conceivable that China’s heavy truck ownership will reach 11.7 million units in 2025.
China has about half of the world’s large trucks. China became the factory to the world so it has to make and move the heavy items. The rest of Asia is 30% of the world’s large trucks. Japan is the second largest market and India is the third.
The US had about 280,000 class 8 truck sales and Europe had about 350,000. Japan alone is about the sie of the US and Europe in large truck sales. India is about equal to the USA.
I have provided data Tesla Semi truck is a vastly cheaper and more efficient truck to operate than diesel semi and large trucks. This is because the electricity at wholesale prices of 7 to 10 cents per kWh means energy costs are $14000-17000 per year versus $50000 to 90000 per year for heavily used diesel trucks.
I have argued this means a massive shift to Tesla electric semi trucks. This will initially be for aboug 40% of the total addressable market. Tesla will need to complete the buildout of a lot of megapack charging stations, make different cab versions and increase the range for a 800+ mile range truck for markets beyond the current 530 mile range Semi.
Trucks: Defined by Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW)
1) Mini Trucks: GVW is 1.8 tons or less.
2) Light Trucks: GVW is from over 1.8 tons to not over 6 tons.
3) Medium Trucks: GVW is from over 6 tons to not over 14 tons.
4) Heavy Trucks: GVW is over 14 tons.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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