The Tesla Semi is a category killer for the entire trucking category.
Tesla has exclusively solved the issue of efficient torque when towing heavy leads. Large pickup trucks like the diesel F150 drop from 20 mpg down to 9 mpg when they are towing over 3 tons. The diesel Semi weighs about 24000 pounds and the trailer holding the payload weighs about 10,000 pounds. This means the max weight of 80,000 pounds on US highways leaves about 46,000 pounds (23 tons) for payload. The diesel semi drops to 7 mpg with heavy loads.
The Tesla Semi gets 1.7 kWh per mile of electricity use when moving a full load and can be improved ot 1.5 kWh per mile. That’s a lot more than a sedan like the Tesla Model 3 at 1/4 kWh per mile, as you would expect. It’s also better than the competing electric truck offerings from Volvo, Mack, BYD and others, which range from 2.2 to 2.8 kWh per mile.
Tesla can save $50,000 per year in fuel costs when a Semi truck is driven 80,000 to 100,000 miles in a year. Tesla Semi can also save $2000-5000 per year in replacing brake pads because regenerative braking gives back 80% of the energy for going up hills while saving brakes from damage.
The Tesla Semi will ensure Tesla will dominate the Semi market. The Tesla Semi will have a 3-4 year payback period. Tesla has an over 5 year technological lead over its competition in electric semi trucks and the diesel trucks are outperformed as well.
The Tesla Semi technology solves torque and towing heavy loads.
Tesla Semi will drive up and down hills faster and safer. This will reduce traffic problems and reduce delays driving versus diesel trucks.
Megawatt charging that is 5-10X faster than the competition means there is no competition in charging. The charging of trucks will require megapacks at scale to buffer the grid. This means the guaranteed success of Tesla trucks guarantees the success and domination of Tesla Energy. If Tesla Energy reaches the goal of 10 terawatt-hours per year then it will be two to four times more valuable than all of the electric car market.
Diesel trucks emit huge amounts of not just greenhouse gasses but particulates. Outdoor air pollution is estimated by the WHO to kill 4.2 million people per year with particulates being the leading killer. Diesel trucks emit 70% of the particulates from transportation in the USA, and 60% of the nitrogen oxides. Getting them off the road is a major step.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
there is no torque technology here
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
What a BS. Maybe in 50 years it will happen when “elon the free speech enforcer talking head” will invest in fleet of mechanics (thousands or tens of thousands) that will be capable of fixing these trucks on the road. Otherwise it’s not going to happen. Truck driver with 20+ years of experience here.
Not much to fix on an elec rig Mr 20 yr trucker. Do your homework or maybe be quiet while grownups try to save the world.
Grebro,
I don’t think your a truck driver. I say this because I am also a truck driver. I just took a load from San Francisco to Atlanta. It was something like 2400 miles. If you think this is going to be a quick fix you are as delusional as Trump was thinking that Mexico was going to pay for the wall. Electric vehicles still only make up about 3% of vehicles on the road in the civilian world. These trucks will only be used as yard movers and local delivery trucks where drivers will come home every night for a VERY long time at best. This is because we don’t have the infrastructure in place to charge these things. I’m excited for what the future will be but until we solve solid state batteries, electric long haul trucks will just be a dream.
I agree with the author. Fleet owners also agree with the author — profitability is what matters and Tesla Semis may have paybacks (ROI) in as little as two years.
#thefutureisalreadyhere* and we can either climb aboard, adjust, and thrive or fight the inevitable which is futile.
* William Gibson
Lol. The United States is still fighting the Civil War.
Good luck.
Guess what else? That big hunk of equipment will be worthless in 10 years. The batteries will be worn out then and it will be cheaper to buy a new truck, than buying batteries. Same thing goes for ge cars. Who is gonna take all these batteries? Food for thought.
Es wäre besser wenn die Lkw
Die batterie an zentralen orten einfach computergesteuert austauschen könnten ohne zu laden
Die batterie wäre zentral gelagert, der lkw fährt darüber und die batterie wird schnell gewechselt in Ein paar minuten. ..dann verliert man keine zeit für das laden
translation – It would be better if the trucks
The battery could be easily replaced at central locations under computer control without charging
The battery would be stored centrally, the truck drives over it and the battery is changed quickly in a few minutes. ..then you don’t lose any time for loading
Response – any swapped packs must still be charged eventually. Swapping a battery pack that weighs a few tons would be a big problem, plus there would have to be more packs than vehicles. Plus truck owners would be getting different packs.
Ban EVs and crypto. Both are scams.
Yes, since there’s savings using electricity over diesel, there will definitely be a market for generating more electricity (from clean sources) and for the manufacture of mega chargers.
I believe there are no other obstacles other than senseles hate on Elon (and Elon putting too much time and money getting beat down by millions of people on Twitter).
I thought this reply was marked for Scott.
To the original writer, thanks for promoting awareness of electric semis trucks!
First, I’ll go on record as being a supporter of an “all of the above” approach to alternative fuels – BEV, RNG, Hydrogen, and yes, clean diesel technologies. Each technology has pro’s & con’s that make it more or less favorable in various applications so I am skeptical of anyone who says that EV technology will solve all of the challenges. Here are some considerations / challenges that need to be resolved or “factored” in to the discussion to be fair to all technologies.
1 – Where will Tesla Trucks get repaired? They have no dealers. Existing HD truck OEM’s all have electric vehicles and expansive service networks and are preparing for EV powertrain repairs.
2 – EV’s do have zero tailpipe emissions but they require electricity to recharge. Electricity generation comes from many sources. Some are renewable, but there are many coal, natural gas, & nuclear generation plants across the US. You need to talk about well to wheel emissions if we’re going to tout emission reductions.
3 – The rare earth elements that are needed for batteries come from Mother Earth so you need to talk about how these are being mined and, where in the world these elements are coming from.
4 – Battery packs are heavy and reduce payload by 7.5k to 12k per vehicle so you need to factor more vehicles and drivers into any emission model.
5 – The average home uses about 20kWh of energy per day. The battery packs on these HD vehicles range from 400kWh to 1,000kWh. So if you charge these vehicles only once per day they will consume 20 to 50 homes worth of energy each day (in the case of a mega watt charger, that “50 home’s worth of energy” will be consumed in 1 hour.) Evening hours may be off-peak for now but wait until you start plugging these in overnight. Peak demand charges are already on each utility bill but these will increase exponentially and drive higher utility costs (i.e. fuel costs)
6 – It takes a minimum of 18 months to commission a charging station even with today’s low volume adoption. Can utility companies scale?
PAYLOAD?
WHAT is the PAYLOAD?
OWN TESLA TRUCKS MEANS owning more equipment and more staff to drive equipment while the competition does the same job with less equipment…
All good questions. The article was based on Tesla provided info but Musk is known for exaggerating. Truck drivers have provided negative reviews as to driveability. I want to see results in a few years. My family used to be in the trucking business
Your right where will the power come from some days in California you may have to push your truck
If tesla really wanted to improve the industry, they’d make an open standard that allows others to design trucks that can use these chargers. By trying to be competitive, tesla will loose and delay electric semi’s broad adaptation. Poor cab design, and frankly, if it’s anything like their cars, way too much focus on gimmicky tech like doors that don’t open without electricity. There’s no need for this, and it drags the company down.
Also, an F-150 isn’t a large residential truck. F-350 or maybe F-250. Hate to be that guy, but I could slap something more detailed and better researched in an hour. Ik deadlines are tough, but this seems phoned in.
The argument that new diesel trucks are huge polluters is just not factual. New diesel technology is very clean. The battery pack manufacturing and resources it takes to build them is very harmful to the environment. Lastly until a battery truck can travel more than 600 miles on a single charge and have enough parking and charging stations to charge them over the road it will just be a novelty.
Are you a nutter inhale diesel exhaust and tell me it’s clean
What do you think they use to mine the minerals for the tons of batteries that are in the trucks? All tesla is doing is shifting emissions from one place to another…not to mention the horrendous strain that charging these trucks will put on the electric grid..
I am posting an article now on where the minerals for batteries come from. The common materials will mostly come from China because China would source the iron and other common stuff locally. China is making most of the world’s batteries. Primary global lithium sources are Australia and Chile.
Tesla is reducing overall emissions but shifting emissions from small cars and trucks to central power plants is cleaner. It is easier to control and reduce emissions centrally.
It’s just not going to happen I understand the hope and dream of electric trucks and cars but it’s not feasible with our current power grid and battery technology specifically charging will need to improve dramatically to ever even hope to replace a diesel truck. These trucks will be sold at the crazy $500k mark to giant mega carriers as a novelty nothing more.
You did not watch the Semi delivery event. They announced the megawatt charger. Two of those can be used to charge 70% – 400 mile range in 30 minutes. This and the engine-drivetrain efficiency (1.7 kWh per mile and going to 1.5 kWh per mile vs 2.1-2.5 kWh per mile by the competition.) those are the technological lead.
Right on Brian, you are on the money with everything you said. And the most important factor, which doesn’t get talked about today at all—are ultrafine carbon particulates from diesel trucks. We live next to a major freeway interchange in the Bay area, where the sky is blue and the air looks clean, but our driveway and kitchen shelves are coated with a black dust of ultrafine (0.3 microns) carbon. Ultrafine carbon sails right through the alveoli in our lungs and spreads through the bloodstream to every part of the human body. The EPA says it is the most toxic single source substance on Earth. I’ll leave it at that. Thank you again Brian.
Are you sure IT isn’t from the tyres?
Of cause the manufacturers gig is the place to go for realiable information. Tesla is not Theranos but the Adaptation of charging, repair and Recycling alone will be a huge issue. While Tesla had a smart solution for private cars driven by rich people trucks are anorher story. They tend to pile up on the same routes and same Truck stops. How will those points provide the Energie needed to recharge all the trucks. A smarter rail based system seems more like a revolution.a way to build more efficent less expensive and less dangerous batteries, that would be a game changer but those trucks. . .
How exactly do you get multiple megawatt power for these trucks at every place you need them?
With a diesel truck I can refuel at literally EVERY gas station that sells diesel.
Look at how many ICE engines there are. Look up their average runtime per year, and you Will get cumulative MWh of work they do. Divide it by the number of seconds a year has And you Will get the average power you need to distribute. Add 30% for charging losses.
That’s the amount of electric power you need to somehow create And distribute on top od What Is produced And distributed Now.
And Now the serious questions:
– Where do you get that power from?
– How do you get it into the chargers?
Add megapacks with 3.9 mwh of capacity. Pepsi is adding four 750 kw charging stations for their 36 trucks. Initially have onsite charging like at Pepsi. Charge make a delivery and then return and recharge.
You forgot the part where these megawatt charges consume the equivalent of 50 homes EVERY HOUR. Where’s all this energy coming from? Certainly not all clean energy. Not even close to a majority of clean energy. Let’s not forget what strain it’ll put on the grid when (if) these dominant the roads. It’s a solution to broken equation. I don’t understand this Mega push for EV when the infrastructure isn’t there to match it. Give us more nuclear power.
I think hydrogen is the big hero coming. I hate that batteries are the earths said savior when it takes more diesel and natural resources to mine for these rare elements to make this technology work. I really hope nuclear fusion does help create our power needs so California and other places will not have to say please either charge your car or turn your ac off…. The grid isn’t ready and our focus needs to go back to the drawing board for a better more attainable answer…. Maybe a byproduct of water ?
South Korea and Japan believe in Hydrogen. Honda got out hydrogen cars before the first modern EVs. Hydrogen is difficult to stop from leaking. Batteries are going to TWh and tens of millions of units. Hydrogen needs difficult and costly infrastructure scale up. They have lost.
Actually it doesnt take much to convert a gas station over to hydrogen. The majority of infrastructure is already in place. The gasoline holding tanks can be and have been used and converted into hydrogen storage tanks next would be to just change out pumps and your basically done. Where as EV’s need trillions of dollars to upgrade the entire electrical grid world wide. Which means more contruction ripping up roads and other infrastructure. Hydrogen diesnt pollute like the neuro toxic batteries. If you havent seen that battery prices have skyrocketed lately? Ever wonder why AAA, AA, C, D… batteries have gone up in price??? These EV’s use how many battery cells per vehicle? Now how many other Billions of electronics use the same materials for their batteries? Dont you all see the conflict here with the use of extremely highly neuro toxic batteries. This is just the begining once these so called EV’s replace ICE we will have BILLIONS of cars using batteries with the BILLIONS of electronics therefore the price will go up for all types of batteries. Dont forget the vastly massive city sized huge holes left behind mining the materials and the massive brine fields killing millions of animals.
Hydrogen uses 3x the amount of electricity as an electric car lol. It would make the problem worse not better.
Agreed!
There are issues with battery powered aircraft and ships, though. Therefore, this relatively small amount of the global energy demands will have to be powered by synfuels.
They are recyclable if we continue to advance fusion. Just the other day, LLNL achieved a 1.5 gain of energy output then from the energy of the lasers that caused the fusion.
This is proof that we could continue to improve fusion to the point of complete energy payback (including the energy wasted as heat powering the lasers, the energy needed to make everything involved and the energy needed to charge employee EVs, etc.
From there, just have to convince all those against clean nuclear energy that more energy is better than less (so we can obtain enough energy to recycle our fossil fuels and stop global warming).
Thank goodness for Elon for fast tracking the battery raw materials supply chain in North America as we will still need battery powered (almost) everything.😃
Hydrogen, by using alkaline or acidic base produced using water exists already. Hydrogen combustion by product is water, not pollutants. Today’s ICE motors can run on this with minor modifications, with hydrogen using on demand systems (electrolysis) by using on board electric power. Not a grid problem, simple. Been around experimentally for decades, Youtube allows insight and with the ability to overcome freezing temps it becomes a overall win for everyone. I’m not sure that a pressurized on board vessel is safe enough yet when an assist system can be processed on board with todays vehicles. OBD2 can auto adjust for optimizing this. Trucks are sporadically updated currently but on an experimental basis, providing a measurable boost in mpg by enthusiasts.
Why is this not widely published? Stanley Meyer hydrogen cell research recc’d from 50 years ago, try Youtube. For cars, the ROI tipping point has been around $4/g, which fuel availability will lower this number as time goes on. Not hard to understand, actually easy bc its simple logic driven by a common need. Rewarding to give the decision power back to individuals not corporations, but above all, be safe. I am aware their are other scientific options. Shouldn’t we all be informed?
Truck manufacturers ‘should’ start to convert existing (used) trucks to electric, hybrid and/or Hydrogen combustion (if applicable and meaningful for drivers possibilities/habits and purpose of delivery task) by modular conversion kits?
Energy (electrical, heat) to Hydrogen conversion loses in efficiency (compared to battery storage), but preserves invested energy within available inventory of built trucks (what’s a question about cost of Hydrogen, truck conversion or absolute change of traction concepts to battery&electric).
Ohhh Tesla Semi has more torque, SO F’ING WHAT! We don’t need more torque, we NEED trucks that don’t break down and part networks to readily have available the parts we need when our trucks do break down! Where’s Tesla on that front? crickets……
I agree with you. My wait times are at 2 weeks at freightliner which has the most service facilities and closes to plug and play you can get. It won’t matter if you have a better product if you can’t get those times down.
Wait times are a problem, however not for Tesla and selling every Semi that they make. It could very well be that all of the early customers like Pepsi and Walmart get all of the Tesla Semi they want (40,000 trucks each) and a few other big customers before the 1-20 truck independent operators get their trucks. Getting 4 million US Semi converted will take 6-10 years. Even in my bullish and base case analysis. Europe, Asia conversions happening in parallel because their 5 million large trucks in Europe and 15-20 million in china and Asia will have localized construction. Those who get it last will be competing with others with far lower operating costs. 100,000 miles @ an eventual 1.5 kWh per mile or $15000 vs 100,000 miles at 7mpg or 15,000 gallons at $5/gallon. $75k per year. The Megapacks will be at about 55,000 supercharger level 4 stations. The deployed supercharging with megacharging will purchasing of dedicated charging would be optional.
What are you talking about dude…sounds like you don’t wanna give up that diesel bro🤣🤣🤣. No one cares about your broken down truck. Invest in some new tech my guy.
Then there’s the battery issue…Tesla battery packs for a standard car cost about $30k to replace…you figure the semi has to cost 80k or more if they go out…that’s a very high expense…not to mention they can’t have ev in really cold climates unless they solved that problem.
$7000-13000 to replace a battery pack. 17% range loss in cold climates. So start in 70% of locations with better weather. 30 million trucks to replace globally, 4 million in the USA.
Why would a semi battery pack be so much cheaper then a model S or 3 battery pack if it has so much more capacity? That number doesn’t make much sense.
Semi battery pack in six years will be $60 per kwh times 900 kwh $54000. If those Semi get converted to shorter routes, then they do not replace battery for ten years or so and batteries should be $40 per kWh, new pack $36000.
95 % of Semi breakdowns are engine related. That problem seems nearly cured with the Tesla Semi tractor. No drive train maintenance either. Sounds like a win win.
Again, as Brian stated, you too didn’t watch the Semi event. Tesla semis have way less moving parts, parts in general, it’s an absolute revolution what Elon has created. These things have barely anything to go wrong with them. I think you’re yet another Elon envi/hater. Ugh
Robert ur right, u know when a tsla semi breaks down, it means stop nothing will happen before an tsla person can come n it might take long time but a D-truk would get parts faster
Well. They dont expect the motors to break down for 1,000,000 miles. And also almost non-existant brakes changes needed.
Im trying to figure out if ur a paid troll. Or just so antiEV you cant even look at the data unbiasedly.
We’ll see, because time will tell that eventually, the world will have to be all electric and synfuels based. Your know, fossil fuels won’t last for friggin ever.
!!!😏!!!
This article reads like it was written by an outdated AI. I’m also quite skeptical until I hear some data from 3rd party tests.
How many miles and charges can these EV do before replacing batteries. Cost to replace batteries?
about 1 million miles. NOTE: If a Tesla Semi with 540 mile range (the 500 mile test drive used 93% of the charge) were to degrade by 70% say over 600k-1 million miles that truck could be switched to a 400 mile range route.
But what is the cost for new batteries? Most truckers that I know drive 1 million miles within a few years. Teams do it sooner. They do not have to replace the engine that fast. EVs are not worth it. I will keep my diesel truck
At the pack level, Currently it is about $120/kwh for replacement plus $600-2500 for the work of replacing. In non-inflationary years, batteries get 5-10% cheaper each year. In 5-6 years, it should be $80-100/kwh to replace. For a 900 kWh system, it would be $80,000 to $92000. You can shift the truck that no longer has 500 mile range to a 300-400 mile range purpose for another 5 years. After it drops below 300 miles in say 10 years of heavy use, then take the pack for fixed storage. Maybe $10k resale-repurposing.
There are already questions about the legitimacy of Tesla’s demo. Their build quality is notoriously bad and Musk is famous for hype and lies. Would you risk your shipping business for his product?
If these things function like the Model 3 it won’t be long before truckers look to a known quantity like Volvo, whom they can trust to deliver on quality and promises. I think the idea is great but wouldn’t trust anything promoted by Elon.
This article is so full of holes, starting with the title. So let’s start by saying that a current technology BEV will not replace any of the current and near future ICE Vehicles.
They are not as efficient as you claimed. Sure, on paper they look cool and all, but in real world scenarios they are barely going to augment the local delivery segment. There is absolutely zero way any fleet will actually replace their current line up with these battery trucks.
They only haul short distances and take way, way too long to recharge.
The main issues you are leaving out here are that when you have a constant drain/draw on any battery, they discharge even faster than when it is intermittent. When you add weight, that number decreases exponentially.
The batteries still weigh the same, regardless of the charge level. This means there is zero efficiency increase and there is an efficiency decrease. Compare that to liquid fuel, which as it burns, allows the engine to work even less, making the fuel efficiency increase as miles are driven.
There are fuel stations all over the place, but the type of charging station you need for these semi is extremely limited.
There are already several tractor companies out there that have been working on BEV tractors for a few years longer than Tesla, and even they say this about the science of Physics.
So in conclusion, Tesla Semi is definitely Not the industry killer or even disruption machine you make believe it is.
Pepsico…bought a fleet??
I’m not a trucker. But to the best of my knowledge the only thingthat could make this claim true, is if these trucks started driving themselves. Take out the driver and pay, then you may see an industry killer. I’m sure they are working on it. Then fleets of these trucks could haul themselves around with no log book or down time. What does that say for truck drivers? Remember that living wage Musk hasspoken on for when humans no longer have to work?
Cold weather will be significantly detrimental to range. Very hot weather will reduce battery life.
How will these tractors perform in places like Northern New England, or Minnesota, or South Dakota, during winter when temperatures are often sub-zero (F) for days on end??
1. If there are some places where operations are more difficult then those will be the last markets to be converted. Working on the first 10% for the next 5 years at least. Last 20% will be 15-20 years out.
2. Sodium batteries are exceptional for cold weather performance. CATL is getting those to reasonable scale in the next few years. Sodium batteries would need more energy density. But CATL is already looking to have the mix of lithium batteries and sodium batteries for the right range.
10 years should be plenty to get high energy sodium batteries up to twh per year scale. solving cold weather.
I would say this, hold off from celebrating this truck for at least a year or 2 after it’s been used in EVERY scenario that it could possibly go through. You have to understand you are not a truck driver and what might be really cool for you does not actually work for, truck drivers! And to be honest with the way telsas getting beat up on the market right now it might very well be short lived. Musk is showing his true colors and I see the board giving him the boot. To me all that play truck is a very expensive lawn ornament, but if you need a Pepsi or some chips you might be good to go, after charging it for who knows how many hours and I’m sorry but truck drivers, I mean long haul do not like to sit around and wait
Tesla semi is not the future
Reminder to check back in 2024… Model 3 is not the future? Model Y is not the future? Best-selling car in the world by revenue in 2022. Best-selling car in units sold the last three months of 2022.
These articles should have a standard disclaimer that batteries are recycled refer to Redwood materials and others And comparing a completed infrastructure of gasoline to an incomplete infrastructure built out of electricity is only a temporary situation And finally battery life is over a million miles And getting longer and the batteries are getting better just like the ice engines have done over the past 100 years
80,000 less 24,000 cab less 10,000trailer leaves 46,000 payload
Not 36,000
fixed. thanks
What is the price of the megacharger?
Do launching customers need to install that at their beginning and endpoint in the first applications, or can they use regular chargers?
FSD can also dramatically shift the market.
Even if it is a “highway only” rollout, it can let one driver cover as many miles as two.
Driver does mandatory rest hours while the truck drives itself.
This article is so full of holes, starting with the title. So let’s start by saying that a current technology BEV will not replace any of the current and near future ICE Vehicles.
They are not as efficient as you claimed. Sure, on paper they look cool and all, but in real world scenarios they are barely going to augment the local delivery segment. There is absolutely zero way any fleet will actually replace their current line up with these battery trucks.
They only haul short distances and take way, way too long to recharge.
The main issues you are leaving out here are that when you have a constant drain/draw on any battery, they discharge even faster than when it is intermittent. When you add weight, that number decreases exponentially.
The batteries still weigh the same, regardless of the charge level. This means there is zero efficiency increase and there is an efficiency decrease. Compare that to liquid fuel, which as it burns, allows the engine to work even less, making the fuel efficiency increase as miles are driven.
There are fuel stations all over the place, but the type of charging station you need for these semi is extremely limited.
There are already several tractor companies out there that have been working on BEV tractors for a few years longer than Tesla, and even they say this about the science of Physics.
So in conclusion, Tesla Semi is definitely Not the industry killer or even disruption machine you make believe it is.
Pepsi alone has ordered 100 and just took delivery for 10. Tesla should deliver the first 100 this year. Tesla has more orders than just Pepsi, on the order of 1000+ orders. They have video evidence of a fully loaded 500 mile drive. 80% of Semi trucks have lower range needs than 500 miles.
If Tesla gets to 50,000 sales in 2024, they will almost be at the level of the industry leader in diesel Semi Freightliner in US sales.
BTW: as of today are you admitting that Model Y is a huge success? It has the most dollar sales of any car model. Beating out Corolla, Camry and F150.
800,000+ sales at ASP of $60000 each. Model Y is already best selling by units over Corolla the last 2-3 months. Over 100,000 per month.
Fuel stations all over the place. Tesla has 40,000+ charge connector at 4,300+ charging stations. Tesla will be megapacking and setting up megachargers at larger truck friendly places. Lathrop plant can provide 10,000 megapacks per year. There will be more plants. The need for a megapack means a combo sale..parallel rollout.
Go look at the average truck stop and tell me how are these mega packs going to be set up where 50+ trucks can be charging simultaneously plus have room for others for parking and sleeping. There is already a shortage in truck parking for sleeping etc. The 500 mile range is nothing to a dedicated long haul truck that has a team of drivers, these trucks literally run day and night.
The Tesla Model Y is now the top-selling car of any kind. Not just EV. It replaces the Toyota Corolla in unit volume despite having an initial cost that is twice as much. However, I never owned a Corolla ever. I never bought the top selling F150 truck. There are vehicles that can be the most compelling and best which the majority never buy. Ford had a peak of about 20-35% of the pickup truck market, this is dominant but means most people did not buy the F150. Corolla had a peak of 2-3% of the car market globally. This mean out of 60 million vehicles they sold 1 to 2 million most years.
Freightliner-Daimler are the leaders in Semi and large trucks in the US and Europe. 40% market share in US and 40% in Europe. 80% of large trucks globally are sold in Asia. Having very little of the asia market means global share of 8% of the global market.
Tesla initially over the next 4-6 years getting to 50% share in US, 50% share in Europe and 10% share in Asia would mean about 12% of the global market and 620,000 trucks per year. 140k in US, 180k in Europe and 300k in Asia. They will add more models, sleeper versions etc…
Infrastructure is a problem. Electricity is a problem. Germans found out this winter that electricity is not growing on trees. This require a lot of investment. If Elon us gonna pay for it, then sure. But we all know that it will be forced upon companies. Nothing spectacular, about this truck. But hey, you got to spread the narrative. That’s how you get payed. XD
Common-Sense Skeptic is full of Sh!^. He spews nonsense. He is wrong more than he is right. Clickbait for rubes.
Give it your best shot, sunshine.
How Much Does it Cost To Purchase?
How many recharge cycles will the batteries accept a full charge?
When the batteries are no longer usable, How will it effect the environment to dispose of the waste, How much will New Batteries Cost? Who is going to do the work? Seems to be a lack of skilled mechanics at Love’s,T/A, ???
Tesla will raise the price of the Semi, just as they raised the price of all their cars and just like all car makers raised their prices over the last 5 years. My estimate is 500 mile goes to about $250k but buyers get the $40k tax credit in the US and the 300 mile range is about $190k. The batteries will recharge acceptably for about 4000 cycles. But I expect battery changes every 6-10 years unless they switch the previously 500 mile vehicle to a 300 mile route. About 5-10% per year drop in battery prices except in inflation years.
Tesla will make their own truck stops or some existing truck stops convert.
80,000 gross – 24,000 cab – 10,000 trailer = 46,000 payload
Not 36,000
You forgot about the battery weight, hence 36k lbs…
There are tesla cars on the road the have well over 100,000 miles on the original battery and most still have 90% of there original battery capacity available. Even cars that frequently use rapid DC fast chargers. Some have gone ups to 300,000 miles on a battery.
Old batteries will be recycled to make new batteries. But with EV going over 100,000 miles on a battery most are not old enough yet to need a battery replacement. So as of right now there are very few batteries that need to be recycled. But recyclers are already getting recycling facilities ready and collecting used batteries in warehouses.
You obviously have not a clue to how many miles a over the road “ long haul” truck runs in a year. The average long haul team driven trucks run a average of over 200,000 miles a year and they normally only stop for fuel, food and to drop and pick up new load!
Center seat, how’s that work?
No sleeper, now what?
Where the hell are the doors?
Maybe if Elon was so smart, he’d consult a real driver,!
As usual Elon is full of crap!
They will add a sleeper version. There are 50% of semi trucks with no sleeper. 150k/year in the US. 150k/year in Europe. 500k/year in China. 2026 at least before that market can be satisfied. Center seat driver uses cameras for backing up.
You only need a sleeper for an overnight haul.
Don’t need a sleeper at all. Drivers will be obsolete once the cybertruck is widely accepted.
Bingo!
The self-driving concept is fairly obvious. And the less complicated nature of highway vs non-highway driving makes FSD easier. Clearly this represents yet another economic benefit (although the loss of jobs for truck drivers — highway and city — is destined to be a societal challenge.)
Good luck with that, the statement you made shows you have very little idea of how the trucking industry works. Do you think that a truck just runs on the highway? The thought of a 80,000 lb vehicle running down the road at speed with a computer driving it, is a terrifying thought. There are so many more variables in driving a tractor trailer then a car. You take the human element out that is reading the road and watching the traffic for sporadic drivers, there are so many situations of the driver seeing a potential danger that a computer cannot see until it’s to late. 80,000 LB truck takes a football field length “100 yards” to get to a complete stop running 55 mph.add another 50 yards at highway speeds. People who have never driven a tractor trailer have no earthly idea of what a truck driver deals with on a daily basis and how many life and death decisions they have to make in a split second. We have not even gotten into the business side of the job or the load security side of the job.
Self driving ?
Isn’t that called a train on rails?
… anyone thinks you can go driverless has a very limited idea of what a truck driver actually does ..
Junk! So who is going to put chain’s on ,? On Truckee?
And do you know how big of lot you need for all trucks just to charge that junk?
Exactly!!
Two things.
I hope they find electricity for these trucks. They sound good for owners and for planet. More infrastructure in less traveled roads in midwest, too.
I wish Mr Musk to develop low cost car for family of four. Even blade or sodium battery. Even shorter range. Immigrants and lower class need help.
Hi Brian,
Are you able to respond to this you tube video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3dCDNIRM34
Thanks
Joe
Thunderfoot is a biased liar. His videos are the snark and critique of things. This is sometimes valid when the target is flawed. But he attacked SpaceX for reusable rockets and has not admitted he was wrong even after there have been over 150 booster landings and over 100 reused booster flights. His critique of Semi truck is that the payload weights are wrong or fraudulent.
Warren Redlich trashes Thunderfoot for his Spacex reusable booster lies and faulty analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbN6gJTFZD8
I will look at this other video and respond.
I have responded
I started driving trucks in 1974. I have only 2 questions regarding electric trucks. 1st, where does all this electricity, to recharge these batteries come from? Areas like LA already have brown outs because there isn’t enough power. 2nd, how long does it take to change the batteries? If it is longer than 15 minutes it won’t work in the real world. If you think it is viable to set up charging stations, in the parking spaces, check out the maintainance headaches experienced by the old “park and view” system.
This is also why the megapacks are needed. Recharge megapacks overnight or anytime during the day when load is available. Less grid strain and cheaper with time of use pricing. 5% of solar and wind gets curtailed across the US. A terawatt hour of extra power in most states and 5 twh in Texas and a few others with lots of wind.
Buddy is smoking that good stuff
Electricity demand during the day is about 2 times higher than it is between the hours 1 to 7AM. When people are sleeping they don’t consume much electricity. So at night the utilities need to throttle the power plants down and or shut them down. EVs will add additional load at night meaning plants that are offa at night will be left on and running. No additional power plant are needed because they already exist.
LA hasn’t had a brown out is over a decade. They did occurring 2000 due to a bad law that Enron illegally manipulated to make it appear that there was a energy crisis when there wasn’t. That law and Enron no longer exist. Currently in California there is a 5 year drought that make the fire hazard very high. And during periods of high winds combustable debris from the forest can come in contact with the high voltage wire on power lines igniting fires. To prevent town destroying fires and deaths the utilities are moving power lines underground or reworking them to reduce the fire risk. A project that will take years. Until that work is completed, utilities have been forced to occasionally shut down power to communities in forests during periods of high winds. The big california cities are not in the fire zones and there the power stays on. It is only the smaller surrounding communities near or in forests that loos power,
There are no brown out or black outs in the LA area because of the lack of power. If any temporary shut down occurs, it’s during a period of high winds, in more remote and brush fire areas. Why the sudden issue of shut downs during Santa Ana’s that never occurred before? PG&E got sued, in the manslaughter deaths of 88 people four years ago, for a preventable issue caused by a then 99 year old C-hook, a cheap component likely needing replacement before I was born.
Mike, you’re the first one to address the problem with all EV’s. Namely, where does the juice come from? The brownouts in CA and the disaster in Texas a year or two ago prove that….A…the power grid is already overstressed even without the projected numbers of EV’s said to be on the way….B…”green” energy is inadequate for even the most basic needs. Plus, nobody mentions that the only reliable electric power is generated by the fossil fuels the “green” fanatics love to demonize, or the hydro-power dams the same fanatics want to breach to save some fish. It’s time, as cranky old Ann Landers used to say, for the “greenies” to “wake up and smell the coffee”. Reliable electricity, despite the fanatical rush to “green energy”, will for the foreseeable future have to come from fossil fuels like coal and oil or hydropower, and no amount of pie-in-the-sky dreaming about a “green future” can change that. Considering that charging one of those electric-semi monsters takes enough electricity to power a small town, how will an already-overloadedpower grid cope with entire fleets of these monsters?
In bursts, California has already powered its entire electrical grid with renewable energy. 100% green energy. And more capacity keeps coming on line. I don’t think we’ll have difficulty ramping up electrical production in step with increased demand.
EVs are three to four times more efficient than ICE vehicles. I’d rather our energy infrastructure be used for motion rather than heating the air, internal friction losses, etc. If an EV gets 100+ MPGe, what’s not to like?
“This person was wrong on one thing, it must mean he is wrong in everything” Truly flawless logic there buddy.
Besides, he wasn’t really wrong about the reusable rockets. They haven’t cut down costs 100 fold like Elon Musk promised. 🤷🏻♂️ Common sense skeptic is a good YT channel to check out regarding the BS Elon Musk is spewing out, especially on SpaceX and the joke that is starship.
SpaceX is not cutting prices on full launches because they have no competition. SpaceX does have ridesharing costs down to about $275,000 per launch. 275kg.
If SpaceX cut prices who are they trying to beat? Ariane? Long March China? Soyuz Russia?
Same thing for Tesla Model 3/Y. Tesla lowered prices in China where there is competition. In the US, Tesla has 60-70% market share without cutting prices. Market share going back up to 70%+ with Tesla regaining $7500 tax credit in 2023-2032. Hyundia/Kia will give up market share by not qualifying for tax credit.
The person was wrong about the weight of a standard 10 foot concrete block. That is flawless logic. Your welcome.
Starship will works and the Starship fleet will fly 1000+ times per year to orbit by 2026. They will also fulfill the one hour military delivery flight point to point by 2026. When that happens if you have integrity you can apologize.
If this does not happen, I will post here and on youtube that Thunderfoot had some justification to doubt SpaceX execution.
Starship will be the hundred-fold reduction. Elon never claimed a hundred-fold reduction with Falcon, that’s a strawman.