Tesla is targeting 50,000 Semi produced and sold in 2024. They will have maybe 100 in the last month of 2022 and about 10,000 to 20,000 in 2023. The overall US market is 4 million Semi trucks with about 550,000 new sales expected in the next two years. Tesla making 80,000 sales would be 2% of the total market and 15% of new sales.
I liked this comment from one of my commenters. I added a title and some minor changes.
all the objections about random edge cases where it wouldn’t work well are literally irrelevant until production capacity meets current massive demand. We are just getting started.
Tesla just has to satisfy some of the market and then new and better models for other parts of a huge market. Tesla started in cars with the Roadster and then the Model S. Model 3 and Model Y were the higher volume cars. Model Y is now the best-selling car model in the world for the quarter and will be for all of 2023.
The Tesla Semi seems to address 40% of the US market quite well. Tesla Semi has even bigger markets in China, Japan, Europe and the rest of Asia.
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A Nextbiguture Commenter
Tesla Semi gets a verified 1.7kWh/mile efficiency with a flatbed load and the average cost of energy in the transportation sector in 2021 was $0.102/kWh. If it’s slightly higher this year – say $0.11/kWh. It would cost $187 for every 1,000 miles driven.
Plus there’s all the other advantages you mentioned and one big one you didn’t: Safety. Having to crawl up hills isn’t safe, and neither is the tendency to jackknife in poor conditions, or worse traction management than an EV. For hilly routes, the Tesla Semi would be saving a good chunk of time vs the ancient competition because it’s faster up and down those hills.
Additionally, there’s a federally mandated 30 min. break which means that a Tesla Semi could easily run 850 miles a day with a single 30 min. charging-bathroom-food break. The stats are showing that even team trucks aren’t doing more than 850 miles a day most of the time. There’s always exceptions, but that’s what they are, exceptions to the rule.
There are many small shipping companies with owner/operator trucks and those running fixed routes that electric semis would be perfect for. More than half of trucking routes are already <500 miles which means the whole OTR segment is the minority and obviously not Tesla's focus with their first Semi. I say obviously because it's a day cab, not a sleeper cab. Any misgivings about the central driving position, systems, charging, or whatever will be overcome the same way anything else has: practice and experience until it's second nature. It IS different to what truckers are currently used to, but from an engineering standpoint is clearly superior so I'm predicting will become the new norm in future BEV trucks built on new platforms. Attacking the First 3% in Two Years Means 97% Will Not Convert
The bottom line is that electric truck production capacity just isn’t there yet to even dent the semi market so all the objections about random edge cases where it wouldn’t work well are literally irrelevant until production capacity meets current massive demand. We are just getting started!
P. S. Battery longevity is already way better than most of those clowns realize. Tesla’s 2nd gen batteries and powertrains in particular have lasted 3-400,000 miles with the stated goal being 1 million mile longevity for the 3rd and 4th gen.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
22 thoughts on “Tesla Semi Just Getting Started”
Money is the name of the game: we’re going EV and renewables and AI weather we like it or not! Clean energy is dirt cheap once the build out is completed . And AI is also cheaper than a human for most manual work….
There is no mega-charger that exists.
The freight weight capacity is a secret because if it were known, nobody would buy it.
Truckers generally don’t like the cab layout.
So, this will go nowhere.
I wouldn’t bet a plugged nickel on that. To borrow a phrase.
Why would you not try to build an electric semi. It’s going to take time the deisal semis out there now didn’t get as good as they are in one year it took 50+ years and their still improving them. So how do you expect Tesla to be the best they will ever get with their first semis on the road ?? Give them credit for taking the time and spending the money to try. They will get it done!
Pardon me! These “dismal stories” are premature. Which sad sack will line up first to admit they know nothing about new anything? Give it time and a supplemental turbogenerator if you can’t think of anything else.
TSLAQ is irrelvant.
LMFAO. This is going to flop so hard.
Between the POOR build quality, deceptive video editing, refusing to release official specifications, charging problems, battery fires, price, etc etc etc ETC… This is just going to flop so hard.
Agree. Fraudulent information. Tesla Semi is not driver friendly and an idiotic concept regarding class A commercial driving.
The truck is setup A HOLE backwards for good quality production on a timely fashion.
No one cares about wireless phone charging. The windows do not go up or down and the mirrors are not reachable without a ladder or from the inside. Dumb.
Payload was a complete fraud and lie.
Truck carrier owner:
LMFAO. Tesla is hush hush on the true cargo capacity of their trucks and their official charging/battery numbers.
Yeah that REALLY inspires confidence. It getss even better when during the press release Elon was SO defensive on stage about releasing a nonstop video of the Tesla truck (which was getting overtaken by many, many other semi trucks). Elon had to be defensive because in the past they have lied to and deceived people with video editing.
With such a self proclaimed home run there shouldn’t be any hiding the facts with deceptive video editing and refusal to provide technical specifications or statistics.
Yet here we are…. This is going to flop BIG TIME. I love electric vehicles too, so don’t come at me with this bs “you just hate Tesla because you’re a right wing blah blah blah.”
This is a very biased article and disregards not only people’s concerns, which is people’s perception. It also assumes the market will accept the issues involved in a area where profit margins are arguably worse then restaurants.
How green is the electricity used to charge these BEV trucks?
Depends upon the location. Matches the grid in California for California trucks. Matches New York for New York. However, most times they will need to add about a Costco sized solar over roof tops and parking lots as the grid will not be enough. Solar will varies based upon cloud and distance from equator. See the solar map.
Ok, so let’s say Tesla have 20,000 big rigs on the road in 2 years, will the required extra green generating capacity be in place by then?
How would tesla semi fare in a snowstorm that bounds trucks and drivers for a week or so, like South Dakota or Buffalo, New York? Just saying I wouldn’t want one to be in. Diesel or die in that case.
Press releases should be labeled as such instead of “news.”
I think it would be awesome if Tesla actually mass produces a truck but do far nothing but hot air. I can imagine that they’re many reasons… No chargers.. As a driver, I can only imagine how long it will take to get recharged.. you act like we would be the only one in line😂 in the real world my dear friend, you might be in line to buy diesel for 45 min. And that is with these guys filling up in 10 min. Imagine you are in line behind 3 other trucks and it takes each one 30 min.. you would be at the charging station 2 hours sir not 30 minutes. That’s big deal and much more realistic then what you even believe. Me personally, I own a big truck and I’m looking forward to it but I can buy see Tesla doing it alone. Our broken federal government needs to step up and help if they really believe in saving the environment. I wouldn’t buy one because the environment, I would buy one because it would be less expensive to operate over the Long haul. Do you actually think the electric truck with jackknife less than a regular truck? I think maybe you need to go out and ride in a semi truck and get some more understanding before you try to comment on OTR and other jobs. It’s not that I don’t like you or I don’t know you but your attitude comes through the article.
Of course you are enthusiastic about electric . You are a stockholder hoping to recoup your investment losses . I saw the phony film of the uphill tesla passing a diesel truck . You failed to mention that the tesla had only 25% of the load the real truck had . Your info is flawed . The fact is you and Elon are nothing but carnival barkers . I’m sure you remember the old adage- you can fool all of the people some of the time , you can fool some of the people all of the time , but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Your info is self serving and sounds desperate.
If you want to read a discussion of the connection between heavy duty trucks ( Classes 7-8) and national security, if you are interested in different fuels-ammonia, hydrogen, electricity, if you want an estimate of how huge the amount of electricity would be needed to power any of these non-diesel alternative heavy duty trucks, if you are curious about solar/nuclear combined systems to energize these vehicles, then send your e-mail address to email@example.com and I will send you a report
Total class 6- 8 new semi sales is maybe 350k to 380k on a good year and mind you that would be the best year. The 4 million number is just lazy reporting if you google “how many semi trucks in USA?” – it doesnt represent new sales but rather exisitng trucks all the way from 1996 even and tesla isnt really “capturing 2%” of that existing market.
How can you write an article without even knowing this and claiming tesla will capture like 15% of the new vehcile market in under 2 years where they don’t have a customer base, the truck doesn’t even fit all applications of that 400k number number and really no service support in an economic downturn?
I mean I know you gotta be bullish on tsla to prop value but honestly at least do some research to publish on your “#1 rated blog”. Why does Google show this garbage in my feed?
The US market isn’t irrelevant, but it’s kind of just a test ground for what can work worldwide.
If Tesla survives the China supply chain crash, then it can probably sell these across half the planet with zero difficulty.
If Tesla is targeting 50,000 semis sold in 2024,they’ll probably sell about 30,we’ve seen what a dismal failure the solar roof was, battery swapping,4680, the Cyber truck, the roaster ,and any attempt at autonomy.
Even IF that were the case, it’s going to be good for the pursuit of decarbonization that is ultimately driving this movement. We’ve already seen Brian layout the case for why the Tesla Semi will out-compete the diesel Semi truck.
Incentivizing a cleaner, greener economy is good, wouldn’t you agree? With that said, I still love my Mustang and don’t plan on giving it up anytime soon. But as far as the trucking industry is concerned, I wouldn’t mind if every single one switched to an electrified drivetrain. It would lower gas prices, lower inflation, and be a good thing for the decarbonization of the planet. Good riddance.
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