Tesla Semi Long Haul Trucking Problems

Many commenters who have issues with the Tesla Semi complain that it is not suitable for Long Haul trucking.

How big a market is short haul trucking?

NEW UPDATE:
I have gone into detailed analysis to determine the cargo capacity of the Tesla Semi versus the Freightliner Cascadia and other diesel Semi. I have a close approximation of the Tare weights and the tractor weight and the cargo capacity. The Tesla Semi might be at a disadvantage of 45,000 lbs of cargo versus some diesel Semi with 48,000 max cargo. There are diesel Semi with 46,000 max cargo or less.

UPDATE:
Nextbigfuture Twitter Space recording. Talking Semi, Tesla and Master Plan Theories.

What are the problems and issues to address long haul trucking.

The following are currently Tesla Semi problems:
* current 500 mile range is less than the 800+ mile range of long haul trucks.
* there is no sleeper cab version and other cab configuration problems
* Electric vehicle charging infrastructure currently takes 4 hours or more to charge a 900 kWh pack to 70% or more

Range Now and Soon

The 500 mile range is double the range of competing electric semi trucks. The Freightliner eCascadia claims a 230 mile range. There will be a follow up Tesla Semis with better batteries with 800 mile range. Increasing the silicon content can add 20-40% to battery energy density.

Silicon has long been appealing for use as a material in lithium-ion battery anodes, because its energy capacity is up to 10 times that of the commonly used material, graphite—leading to lithium-ion batteries with 20 to 40 percent higher energy density. Many of the proposed silicon anodes that hope to tolerate the flow of lithium will require expensive starting materials and complex synthesis processes that use specialized equipment, making it challenging to produce at commercially relevant scales and costs. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed several complementary technologies that include a silicon-carbon composite that is formed into a high-performing anode, a ready-to-scale process for commercial production of the key porous silicon starting material, and an electrolyte that enhances performance of the silicon anodes.

Carbon-coated porous silicon composite anode retains 88 percent capacity after 950 cycles. Low-cost, scalable, and drop-in technology, with much higher energy density but comparable cost to that of graphite. Combination of micron-sized porous silicon and novel electrolyte can lead to a Li-ion battery with 80 percent capacity retention in 2,000 cycles.

Tesla Supercharger stalls have a connector to supply electrical power at maximums of 72 kW, 150 kW or 250 kW. Tesla is installing Megachargers (four 750 kW per hour chargers at Pepsi and megacharges coming to various existing and new Supercharger stations starting in 2023. Most existing superchargers locations are not suited for the physical size of a Semi. A Semi could block access to multiple charging connectors and could use two of the 250 kW chargers at the same time (one on each side).

Cab Design Changes And Versions Are Trivial for Tesla

Changing the cab design and adding a sleeper cab version is trivial. There is no bed technology barrier.

Long Haul Trucking Growing but Short Haul is Growing Faster

Regional and Local trucking is about 66% of the US Market. The Tesla Semi addresses 40% of the market very well with their current versions of the Semi.

Capstone Logistics and Fleet Owner describe the shift away from long-haul trucking.

The continued growth of e-commerce sales is leading to an increase in the use of single-unit trucks, and a decline in the average length of haul, according to new research by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI).

Intra-regional and last-mile truck trips are increasing, pushing down overall average trip lengths by 37% since 2000. Today, the average length-of-haul is just 62 percent of what it was in 2005, decreasing from 800 miles to 500 (Fleet Owner). And the rate of decline appears to be accelerating. Since 2012, average miles driven between pickup and delivery have declined by 26 percent in reefers, 10 percent in flatbed trucks, and 9 percent in dry vans.

US Trucking is roughly 34% long haul, 66% Regional and local. Tesla Semi is strongly addressing about 40% of the US market.

US truck drivers allowed to drive up to 12 hours every 24 hours, whereas European truckers can only drive 9 hours.

US drivers have a 14-hour on-duty clock and an 11-hour driving clock, and each driver is required to take a 30-minute break during their shift. Each driver also is limited to 60 hours in seven days or 70 hours in eight days, just like solo drivers.

There are husband and wife driving couples described at overdriveonline. They do not use the full driving time so that they can have flexibility and more overlapping couple time. There is maximizing revenue balanced with actually living a long term life.

EU regulation demands that truck drivers must take a 45 min break after at most 412 h of driving and an 11 h rest after at most 9 h of driving.

Short-haul trucking involves transporting shipments within a 150-mile radius. Unlike long-haul or “over the road” (OTR) trucking, which involves driving hundreds of miles, short-haul truckers stay closer to home. Short-haul trucking is often subdivided into regional and local trucking. Local truckers stick to smaller shipments traveling less than 100 miles, and regional truckers take trips usually around 100-250 miles. Owner-operators can spend up to 70% of their pay on expenses like fuel and insurance.

* Trucking represented 80.4% of the U.S.’s freight cost in 2019, totaling a gross freight revenue of $792 billion.
* The market size, measured by revenue, of the Long-Distance Freight Trucking industry is $262.9bn in 2022. The “not long distance” trucking industry is about $530 billion.
* The global long-distance general freight trucking market is expected to grow from $537 billion in 2020 to $602 billion in 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.2%. Global long-distance trucking should reach $827 billion in 2025.
* Trucks moved 68% of ground freight between the U.S. and Canada and 83.1% of trade with Mexico, for a total value of goods at $772 billion;
* Employment is up 140,000 from the previous year with 7.95 million people employed in trucking-related jobs. This includes 3.6 million professional drivers;
* 91.3% of fleets operate six or fewer trucks and 97.4% operate 20 or fewer, meaning most carriers are small companies.
* Insurance premiums for trucking companies have seen a huge spike in the last few years, totaling around $12,000 to $14,000 today.
* Of the $700b in trucking related revenue, $350b came from FTL For-hire fleets, $250b from FTL private fleets, $60b from courier & parcel, and $40b from LTL.
* 33.8 million trucks across all classes, 1 through 8 (i.e., light-, medium-, and heavy-trucks)
* Owner-Operators logged nearly 121,500 miles in 2018, of which 26,000 was deadhead.
* The average annual wage for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is $46,370.

117 thoughts on “Tesla Semi Long Haul Trucking Problems”

  1. Problems with the Tesla semi, hmm no one has touch on with Tesla being a newcomer to trucking “Has no part or repair center network!” Another issue will be the charger network cost, everyone know Tesla probably won’t be picked as the main player when truckstop chains start installing chargers which means Tesla’s forecasted “cheap to operate bs” will explode by 3-4x for the drivers having to charge at a truckstop.

  2. This is a city truck. Not a long haul truck. That one seat should be a dead giveaway.
    City freight……25%
    Long haul freight……75%
    This vehicle is for people who drive trucks
    Not for Truck drivers.

    • This is a city truck in the N-AMERICAN market. In Europe that massive cab alone can’t do 90% of supply runs in cities, let alone with a massive trailer attached. In Europe city shops and stores, even supermarkets, are supplied by compact box trucks, not massive semi’s. I live right next to one of the largest supermarkets in my city here in EU, and it has acces to the city’s ring road boulevard. And even that is mostly supplies by box trucks and not semi’s, and on the rare occasion it is supplied by a semi it’s the compact, noseless European versions that do it, not the massive long nose American type semi’s. And even those have a hard time manoeuvring to make deliveries, a Tesla semi probably couldn’t even make the delivery at all. And this is typical all over Europe. You don’t see those long nose semi’s at all here, exactly because they are just too massive and long.

      So the only real big market there is in the EU for the Tesla semi IS long haul between large factories and distribution centers. But the cab design excludes the semi from exactly that in Europe, exactly because it isn’t designed with rest or easy use in mind. 4.5h (not 412 as is badly written in the article) is the max a driver can drive in the EU without a rest break. And this HAS to be monitored by an automatic built in registration system. Musk’s “work yourself to death” work ethic he enforces on his employees doesn’t fly here in the EU.
      Designing a massive truck that in Europe is only really suitable for long haul, without rest and sleep facilities in mind seems like a massive mistake, unless the semi is simply not intended for the EU market…

    • Another item brought up was air emissions from our electricity.

      For 2021, We had:

      38.4% nat gas ( “Clean” fossil fuel ).
      22.6% coal/oil/etc ( “Dirty” fossil fuel ).
      Which is 61% fossil fuel.

      The rest is all clean.
      Nuclear 18.9.
      Renewables: 19.8

      Coal is being replaced by nat gas, but that will shortly be replaced by a combination of nuclear and renewables.

      All of this is far far cleaner than diesel.

      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

      • Nuclear power plants are going off line. And there’s no plan for replacing them. And even if all of fusion’s problems were fixed overnight, it would take 300 years of running them before we even come close to break even on that technology.

    • For those of you saying that electric Tractors will not replace Diesel tractors for long haul, I would say that you are very likely correct.

      However, what you ( and Brian ) are missing, is parallel systems. Basically, a single car train system that can move a shipping container over our rail system. Unlike regular train systems, this is a shipping container that moves across the rail, without anybody controlling it ( no labor ) and can do end2end in terms of warehouse 2 warehouse faster and cheaper. This system is in testing with DOT, right now. It is expected to be approved by Q4, if not Q3. And the company is already gearing up their manufacturing for this.

      THIS is a true paradigm shift and within 15, possibly 10, years, will have destroyed most of the long haul trucking.

      • They will replace trucks for long haul. They are working on them now. As for this one in the article nobody said it was for long haul trucking. It is for day use only. Home every night and not out on the road

        • Amusing, but flawed.
          As I sit in a “travel center”, I read comments by a few cheerleaders who think ev semi’s will be a global in a few years…. sorry not for a long time.
          I’m all in for zero emissions (and not having a engine running while trying to sleep)
          And hopefully Ports, last mile, locals, will go ev very soon, those with company lots where they can charge overnight.
          Mid/long haul Top-up CHARGE on a 30m break? Hahaha, sorry no way.
          Some stops actually used to have wired parking spots (all now ripped out) and some places do have shorepower (slow charge for rv’s), but it’s not high capacity.
          On paper, things can be how you want, but reality wins out.
          Ever drive along a major North American hwy at night? See all those semi’s parked on off ramps and every bit of hard dirt or street “outside” the truck stops?
          They are out of driving time and can’t legally drive further or all the parking is taken, so where and when are they going to charge?
          Missing a appointment can cost a driver at least day’s pay (more over a weekend) and mess up their schedule. Long haul is paid by the mile, so taking a hour or more to wait for a charging spot, then wait another hour for the oversized battery to charge?
          Hope you like inflation, as delays add costs that are past on to the clients.
          Hybrids would be best for long haul and remote locations (like half the planet)
          EV for the cities.

          Oh, I hopefully will never be required to drive one of Tesla’s semi’s, such a terrible layout.
          If you think it will be great, please remount your driver’s seat to the middle and only use the rear door to get in and out into traffic.
          Cheers!

  3. Without a clean environment we have nothing. We were given a jewel by Mother Nature and we better take care of it . EV are cleaner and when the turbines,solar, geo,and grid build out the will be very clean

  4. This question probably has been asked and answered, but as someone who spent close to 20 years in the electrical utilities industry, I was wondering the necessary upgrades to our electrical infrastructure to accommodate the dramatic increase of electrical load if we decide nationally to phase out I.C.E’s. I know that our grid has some resilience, but like any industry they can’t afford to over build infrastructure and remain a profitable publicly traded company.

    An interesting article.

    Thank you.

    • If all US cars were EVs, they would need a total of 1,106.6TWh, which is 27.6% of what the American grid produced in 2020. According to a Forbes article. Add another 50% for all of the trucks.

      rom the first half of 2021 to the first half of 2022: The United States added 22.3 TWh of electricity from solar (including small-scale installations) and 47.7 TWh from wind. This would add the amount in 20 years. If it was triples it would add in 7 years. Need to do it mainly with solar and not wind. Wind directly affects climate. You are blocking wind at scale.

  5. Can someone please tell me if these trucks still make sense without the government grants and subsidies? No one seems to address this. Or are we supposed to subsidize the industry forever so the numbers “work”?

    • The government is providing $40k per truck. Straight discount. There is also subsidy of the energy storage 30-70%. The Inflation Reduction Act is for 10 years. 2023-2032. Why imagine the scenario without it ? The current reality it exists. Just like the billions that went and go every year to the oil industry. Oil industry, communications, highways, rail, planes, and now EVs and battery storage. Everyone gets handouts. Yes, the subsidies go on forever for everyone who has enough money to buy a politician. …quote from 1972: .I need, Don Corleone, all of those politicians that you carry around in your pocket, like so many nickels and dimes.

        • I am not forcing anything. Inflation Reduction Act was passed by President and Congress. Just billions in subsidies..just like oil and gas get billions in subsidies.

                • For someone passing judgement on an educated and clearly researched article that you obviously did not read… throwing out a random number like a 1000 years simply makes you look funny AND stupid. There wasn’t even a single person who could imagine a diesel truck, or the products it caries or the cities we have today.

                  It’s only been 20 years that anyone has spent the massive amount of money that tesla did on R&D for electric vehicles. Or had people outside of the mainstream tech and manufacturing, ie Elan Mudk who isnt controlled by auto manufacturing or big oil, who had enough money and insentive to do so. In that time they are literally close enough in competition to the standard that has been used for maybe 80 years.

                  With all due respect, which really seems to be negligible, your ignorance seems to be a very hard burden to bare by yourself. But you are probably better off keeping it that way unless you went everyone else to know how heavy it is.

              • What about the life cycle of those batteries? In less than 10 years you have how many pounds of hazardous waste? Who is going to accept all thosevuseless batteries? It will be cheaper to buy a new truck than replace the batteries. Not to mention who does all these tree huggers think is supplying the power to recharge? What do those places use to make that power? Yes. Fossil fuel. This isn’t solving anything. It’s just lining some pockets. Same thing with ELD’s. Are you an investor in those too?

                • You are so very wrong. On average, Tesla batteries are showing less than 20% degradation after ten years. This data is rolling in with the model 2 which was pushed out in 2012. A plethora of examples have over 200k miles and many hundreds of models with over 300k miles on them showing extensive use of the batteries as well. So pushing the larger battery size means that 10 years later, or at this rate even 20 years later, even at 80% of your battery life or even 60%, the car will still get the job done. And what have we left behind at that point 100’s if not over 1000 gallons of motor oil will be saved for every single car out. This is ignoring the debate about who is producing the electricity and whether it is clean or not. So many factors you are missing because you are using a talking point from EV competitors instead of looking up data and facts and extrapolating. Good luck not getting sucked into the garbage that old technologies and industries want you to beleive while they fight to stay in power!

              • Nope. The companies that actually designed diesel trucks for the past 50 years will let Tesla run the R+D, then turn out electrics on their own when it’s cost effective for them to do so.

                Watch what a driver will go for. Won’t be a Tesla. It’s never been designed around drivers.

                The biggest factor you’ve consistently left out is the driver’s opinion. No amount of numbers can change that.

                Basic human nature is to follow the path that we already know.

                Drivers have definitely gone elsewhere when a company makes a major change. We already know we can get hired anywhere.

                You can fly the Tesla flag all you want.

                (Certainly seems like you’ve been a paid marketing agent for Tesla, or at least a zealot fighting for a cause, either way.)

                Advice? Take a self depreciatingly honest look at how many drivers are debating your every single point, vs. the people who have obviously never driven supporting it.

                Your outnumbered, what, 10 to 1 by now?

                Not good odds. At least not ones I’d choose to double down on.

                Anyways, I’m out. This has been like talking to a brick wall and it’s about worth the same amount of time.

        • All capital letters do not help make your point.

          They show that you don’t know how to make a point and are just frustrated because nobody will listen to you.

          No one forced Pepsi to invest. They did because that is how technology works. No one forced Tesla to create an electric vehicle and no one is forced to buy it.

          You are however forcing yourself to watch it. Maybe stop that and you will be better off. Then come outside your house one day and realize how far you have been left behind.

          Everything your life is comprised of was created by someone who was being told not to push so hard with their crazy idea. So maybe just chill out and let humanity evolve without playing the grumpy old man. K?

    • Can someone ease ask you why you care about subsidies on electric vehicles and not the subsidies that oil companies have been receiving since they started the industry? Why don’t you care when even the average news is clearly telling you that their profits are in the billions and at all time highs yet they continue to be subsidized by the tournament on the order of those very dame billions EVERY YEAR? All of these industries have government officials and lobbyists in their pocket. Why do you care if oil turns into solar?

  6. In the news this last month if 2022, Tesla semi truck for Pepsi Cola, has a range of only 99 miles when carrying a load of soda.

    I don’t know how long it takes to recharge the batteries every 99 miles, but my guess is, the Pepsi fizz would be flat before it could travel across the USA.

    Also… I’ve seen a lot of electric vehicle fires, and the FD have little success in putting them out quickly. So what’s it going to be like when the batteries that power a huge semi truck, catch fire while stuck in LA traffic? Not only will the fire dept not be able to get to the vehicles, but the road will turn I into liquid fire real quick and continue to burn as other drivers who didn’t die from the explosions, abandon their vehicles and run for their lives.

    THIS IS A SERIOSLY BAD IDEA. EV’s are not the answer right now, and people who buy into it are uninformed or global warming nuts.

  7. I m really excited buy long haul truck without drivers because drivers not more responsible no honest no hardworking not help grow company businesses specially candian drivers I m happy but this kind trucks

  8. For an otr ev truck to be viable you will need electric charging truckstops. If they take 4 hours to charge the driver will have to park the truck in that spot for his 10 hour break. He will need the full array of everything. Showers, resturant, etc. Each charging lane would be good for 2 trucks a day. This will be nothing like ev cars. 20-40 minutes and gone!

    • This piece is misleading, the Tesla semi has a 1000volt battery system so it will charge to full in under an hour using the new tesla megawatt chargers. That’s only enough time for the driver to have their mandatory stops. This article cleverly mislead by saying “current” charging infrastructure which is designed for cars and light trucks.

  9. My biggest beef with Tesla is their Byzantine secrecy.
    There are certified public scales in pretty much every major truck stop. Tesla should bobtail over to one, pay the fee and publish the scale ticket.
    Volvo is much more forthcoming about their rig specs.
    The battery electric VNR weighs around 24,500 pounds. It’s diesel counterpart (same wheelbase, cab configuration, general horsepower, etc.) weighs 16,000 pounds.
    In order to get 275 miles of range, the electric VNR needs six 1,200 pound battery packs totaling 540kWh.
    Who knows what the Tesla tractor weighs with it’s 900kWh +/- battery system? They ain’t sayin’. Wonder why?
    At it’s most basic, trucking is about moving mass. In 2021 the U.S. commercial fleet hauled 10,930,000,000 tons, over 72% of all tonnage moved domestically. With battery big rigs being substantially heavier, that means significantly less payload per truck – 20% to 25% less.
    It’s simple math, and does not conform to wild flights of fancy or fantasy.
    EV proponents can claim all they want that batteries will get both significantly lighter and more powerful in some amorphous future … I remain politely skeptical, but if it does come to pass I may find myself whirring down the super slab in some futuristic rig before I reach retirement.
    Hear that? That’s the sound of me not holding my breath.

    • Complaining about battery weight, conveniently ignores liquid fuel weight. Trucks conveniently recharge while freight is reloaded. No one is compelled to stop for 4 hrs to recharge. An hour rest stop for a shower and lunch opportunes a 25% charge boost.

      • The truck I drive has two 135 gallon fuel tanks. They aren’t filled to capacity by design. When both tanks are “full” it’s roughly 260-265 gallons or roughly 1835lbs. give or take. That weight goes down as fuel is consumed unlike with battery electric. Depending on if I run local or regional determines how often I fuel. Local I can go close to 2 weeks between fueling. If doing regional(up to 5.5 hours to destination) it can vary from once to 3 times in a week.

        As for weight hauled, our typical loads weigh roughly 46k on average. Gross weight will vary between our trucks(different models and configurations) but is around 77k-78k. The tesla semi test loaded with jersey barriers is said to have been at 81k gross weight. The barriers are assumed to have weighed 44k based on the assumption they were 10′ length as seen from aerial photos. Here the most common length is 8′ which would put it at 38,500. Either way, the tesla semi is much heavier than a diesel powered tractor and wouldn’t be able to legally haul most loads even with the extra 2k pounds gross they are given.

        They might shine in local, around town P&D but the longer wheelbase of the tesla would be less maneuverable than the short wheelbase single and tandem axle daycabs that are typically used in that segment.

  10. Don’t be an EV hater. Infrastructure does need to catch up some and the new truck line rates well in most categories but nothing will open that’s earth shattering, topping petro rigs…yet. No emissions v dumb dirty diesels. Smoke that, and don’t ever lose sight.

    Kia EV6 owner

    • You do understand that your “zero emission” EV is likely more damaging to the environment when all factors are considered than a “dirty, dumb diesel…” I hope
      Besides the serious environmental costs in obtaining the raw materials used in battery manufacture, I have to wonder if EV proponents consider the the generating source for the power that drives their “clean” vehicles; hopefully we take a more reasoned approach to integrating EV’S into our existing transportation modes than I worry we are, but I suspect our sort attention span, lack of critical thinking skills and the “EV at any cost” cheerleaders will win out. Witnessing a visitor to a Columbia River hydro electric dam ask if the “water could still be used after the electricity is taken out…” may color my view though.

      • Thank you John for so eloquently pointing out the severe environmental deficit an EV starts out with and may continue to operate with for its entire life because of dirty sources of charging. Most power in North America still comes from dirty sources and the environmental impact of mining the minerals required to produce these so-called green vehicles is massive. Even so-called green energy sources have their own detrimental environmental footprint. Wind towers and solar panels don’t grow on farms, they are manufactured utilizing enormous amounts of “dirty power” as well and have their own environmental downsides for their surrounding environments where they are installed. Virtually all mining at scale is done using the so-called “dirty diesel powered machinery” as well as the subsequent transportation of these materials from every corner of the globe to battery manufacturing facilities. The delivery of the finished products to the EV manufacturers is virtually 100 percent by fossil fuel based transportation methods again. The EV’s themselves are loaded with oil based products in plastics, resins and rubber products. They are on average 25% heavier than ICE vehicles, increasing tire wear and wear on road surfaces that ultimately causes an increase in fossil fuels used to repair roads and replace tires more frequently. Heavy haul trucks at this point will not be sustainable for any distance worth mentioning, nor will light duty vehicles that may want to tow an RV trailer or motorhomes for that matter. Will all campgrounds in the future be installing charging infrastructure on their grounds? I could go on for hours but it’s a waste of time because this whole issue has become completely politicized with politicians that have no technical expertise or knowledge enough to know what really works. It will however get them through the next electoral cycle with their seat intact on the backs of tree huggers everywhere, and the planet will continue to warm regardless.

  11. Drivers will love driving a Tesla semi and owners will love the low cost of operation, an unstoppable business case. Supply chains and charging will adapt. Wait a few months for feedback from drivers and owners. I am a Transportation Engineer with 35 years of experience in multi-modal transportation and technology, and I have been driving a Tesla for 3 years.

    • So drive the trucks without places to charge them… what are you going to haul and where? Think about what you just said…

      • This transition will take many years, to build vehicles and deploy chargers. In early days Tesla has worked with PepsiCo, Wal-Mart etc to install chargers where needed. 350 kw chargers are available now and the Tesla semi can use 2 at once, and their next generation chargers will be up to 1,000 kw and installed to accommodate semis, cybertrucks and the inevitable vans. Tesla has the largest and most reliable charging network in the US and the world, and is the largest supplier of large scale grid storage. It will take years, but it will happen.

  12. Several points need to be made.
    This is the first model of semi truck that covers 40 percent of the market.
    Given that there are 100s of thousands of these trucks currently it will take many years before that market is saturated. Tesla can only produce so many vehicles each year.

    The installation of the charging network will evolve over time. Initially private truck yards to private truck yards make the most sense. Concurrently, Tesla will expand into road side truck stops as acceptance occurs. Love’s, Pilot Circle K etc will be part of the future. Undoubtedly, Tesla will add it’s own chargers to its existing network as it builds out its network.

    Longer range batteries will be developed and enter the marketplace as R&D continues. Just think of where the technology was just a few years ago.

    Sometime in the future Tesla will take on the long haul market. Sleeper cabs, longer range, faster charging etc. will all have to be addressed. The fact is this is the first of several models that will disrupt the trucking industry.

    When you look at the financials it is impossible to deny that the Tesla Semi is exactly the right product for some truckers some of the time. The trick is to understand the current offering and whether it is the right product for you. Obviously, with it’s current limitations it will not meet everyone’s needs today. Tomorrow we shall see.

  13. Conveniently skip over the weight issue from heavy batteries causing it to carry a fraction of gas-powered weights… I’m sure they’ll figure out antigrav in the next Elon-get-rich-quick scene 🤣

    • 82,000 lb limit for electric trucks. It’s now the law. That helps a lot. But knowing Tesla they will produce many more improvements in range and weight. I’m really looking forward to it even though my driving days are well behind me.

    • 17% reduction in range with current Tesla battery systems in really cold weather, other EV makers up to 30% range reduction. Next gen batteries less impacted, particularly sodium ion. But sodium ion less energy density. Getting really good batteries with 30% more range could offset by getting a lot better overall and still very good in cold. Batteries drop 5-10% in price in non-inflationary years. So will continue to get better and better versus gas and diesel.

  14. Well, we’ll see how it plays out in the market.

    I can definitely see supermarket delivery trucks converting. Even a punched out level 2 would add decent range while the truck is unloaded at the store.

  15. Déjà vu.. Those naysayers have the same type or arguments the car industries had in 2010s when the model S appeared.

    Truckers will adapt to the new tech, as did the regular car drivers.

    Simple a matter of time.

    • Not for long haul. Short Haul, yes. Short haul EV 18 wheelers makes sense. Long haul is however, a no go. Its limited by Li Ion battery weights versus range and cargo weight. A Li Ion Ion battery battery giving the range of a long haul diesel (1,500 miles) would weigh 7,500 pounds, nearly 4 tons. This would eat into the payload weight. Li Ion is NOT the answer. There is a prototype battery tech called quantum glass that could change all that, but its probably 20 years off. Five to six times the energy density of the best Tesla Li Ion Battery. 20 years.

  16. Go pro camera won’t run all day without a charge and people actually believe that cars and semis powered by batteries is the future 😂😂😂🤡🌎

  17. Go pro camera won’t run all day without a charge and people actually believe that cars and semis powered by batteries with the main ingredient in the battery being lithium that is extremely expensive to dig up is the future? 😂😂😂 It’s a quick cash grab by the people in charge. It’s about control not saving the planet. The planet is fine and people are so pathetically fooled these days. Diesel and gas isn’t going anywhere because battery operated cars is a dead end.

    • “The planet is fine and people are so pathetically fooled these days.”
      If so, why and who is fooling educated societies.
      If so, how long will this ‘wrong’ information on people endure and who will discover another ‘true’ explanation? What would be educated alternative reasoning to ‘global warming’ by carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and known (constantly emitting) natural sources? What’s the probability for each scenario?
      If so, what would change on people leaving countries getting to hot for living there?
      Thanks for thinking about.

    • I hated tesla…so i bought other brand ev. It broke in a week. I bought a tesla and wont go without one. The semi will do great for sure. The negativity is spewing from the left…trying to cancel elon after he exposed some of the curruption.

  18. I am a long haul OTR truck driver. Another factor is that there are over 3000 truck stops across the country. Considering that each electric truck requires almost a MW of electricity, and each truck stop services hundreds of trucks a day, just running the power lines to plants is a non trivial requirement.
    My thought is that we will go hydrogen with ammonia as the carrier. The cost of fuel would be several times less expensive, high fuel density and no more oil commodity price fluctuations. Another advantage is that outside of the diesel motor nothing else on the truck needs to change. All we need is an efficient catalyst for ammonia. I like some of the features on the Tesla though.

      • Apparently that’s top secret information because they refuse to release the information. However based on previous information tesla has released the truck is estimated to wieght 27,000. Substantially heavier then a diesel truck.

      • 27000lbs – 29000lbs is what I’ve seen estimated in a few articles. Because electric trucks are allowed 82k lbs, this leaves 53,000lbs for trailer and payload. A 53ft box trailer is about 10k lbs, right? So a little more than 40,000lbs cargo.

    • Each EV truck stop would have to it’s own power plant to provide adequate charging capacity. Otherwise, the cost to rewire the stops will cost billions.

  19. Great article Brian, however the Hours of Service limitations you mentioned are more than just the 11 hour rule.

    I was a Former USDOT FMCSA Investigator and if you ever need subject matter expertise please feel free to respond to me.

    I could have provided you with more potential information to get this article to appeal to a larger community of those who actually have an interest in trucks and the regulatory arena.

    Reply

    • I think after being a trucker for 35 years that the Tesla is a example of being out of touch with what the trucking industry is really like and how difficult the tasks really are and how many things are constantly working against you. The industry already is lacking in so many ways that there is a shortage of drivers for years now. The idea of being able to start from scratch with a electric truck is not fantasy but a long way from being able to replace what’s taken years to for are currently used method of power to evolve into what it does today to keep this worlds commodities in stock and fresh like clock work . Trucking is more than simple job and Easley spitts out 80 percent of first time drivers with in months if not weeks after there first real job because it is tough and unrewarding most of the time . Some of the reward can be a nice truck to drive that has been assigned to you . Not a boring fleet truck painted all white that does 62mph down the interstate that all the quality has been penciled out from the hair splitters in offices that have not a clue what the Bear needs to do in the woods much less where it Does it. Electric trucks won’t being any less expensive to operate because the big men will make sure it’s expensive just like the thieves do today . And it kinda looks like the beginning of driverless trucks that in my opinion is a direct hit at a industry built from generations of people that built this country and its interstate system not including the farms and the construction industry with all the shade tree mechanics that keep it all running . I can see Tesla trucks delivery donuts in town or shagging trailers around town but not in no way being able to satisfy the real world .

    • I think that’s a misleading statistic. Most trucking companies may be small, but most of the freight is handled by larger companies, each with hundreds or thousand of drivers.

  20. I think Elon musk needs to stick to what he and his team know! I’ve been driving a semi for almost 10 years and nothing they say makes any sense. Elon and his team have no idea what it’s like to drive a semi so stop trying to “change” the world with something you know nothing about. You know about cars cause you drive one every day so stick to that!

    • I am sure Elon is following my comments and waiting for you and others to tell him stop the project. the Semi that they spent 5 years developing and are selling hundreds of units at $150k to $250k each and will sell thousands in 2023 and tens of thousands in 2024. The one that has over twice the range of other electric Semi trucks. The project that also has cross over technology spinoffs that guarantee the success of cybertruck (vastly more efficient and powerful towing).

      • Why not have some tesla truck stops. 1st It’d promote their trucks. 2nd There could be plenty of parking for other truckers still on diesel. And Anyone that uses electric vehicles regardless of size could stop and get a charge. Truckers would understand where they are stopping as there’s no diesel but also appreciate the fact theres now even more available places to park. And it has to be free parking yes free tesla. Sure have closer parking as Reserved thats fine but rest is free Got that Tesla? Lol anyways there’d be normal gas station stuff like groceries, cigarettes, lottery tickets, and a lobby to wait for showers. And the building roof would definitely have solar panels…. idk just my 2 cents I guess…

      • Then I am happy I will be retiring in 2 years after 40 years of driving , because I am tired of the trucking spiraling down hill and so far all I see is electric trucks will do is make the supply chain worse than it already is!!!!

  21. What is not in this article is the fact that they compared a truck driving say potato chips versus Pepsi and the higher load was less than 300 miles per battery charge.

  22. Trucks can run with the heaviest loads and the longest distances and refuel rapidly only with hydrogen. Hydrogen is the only fuel that can replace present diesel trucks. Stop creating fantasies with batteries.

    • Natural gas will work until they can get the price down on hydrogen. Price on hydrogen is too high right now to even consider. It may be 10 years or more before they are even feasible.

        • Hydrogen was doomed because they where trying to use it in the wrong application. It never made sense in cars where the infrastructure for charging electrics was always going to be easier and cheaper to install. The same can be said for electric in long haul trucks where hydrogen would be far easier and cheaper to install, especially in remote areas where we can’t even get good cellular service. The electrical infrastructure that would need to be installed to charge trucks would be absurdly expensive as compared to the same infrastructure for cars and in some locations the economics would make it virtually impossible. That doesn’t even get to the fact that existing parking locations would have to greatly expand to accommodate trucks that can’t just fuel up and go which diesel now does and hydrogen would allow not to mention the fact that there would need to be far more truck stops in a country where NIMBY (NOT IN MY BACK YARD) is the order of the day when it comes to anything dealing with large trucks and the facility’s needed to serve them. The problem I see with the kind of analysis you and other people do is you don’t talk to actual stakeholders who might actually have information that would be relevant to the specific issues faced in the industries you cover. For instance, you mentioned how most trucking companies are small operations but never mentioned the fact so are the vast majority of truck stops that service the most rural areas. The margins they run under are so tight, they wouldn’t be able to electrify without almost a 100% government subsidy even if it was feasible to run the amount of electrical power that would be needed to operate say 25-75 parking spaces, the average size of those truck stops. The reason so many of these truck stops are small operations is because the majors you mentioned like Loves and TA/Petro won’t service the areas because of the low margins. Adding hydrogen to those locations though would be trivial in comparison and since the operating parameters are so similar to diesel as far as range go’s means you don’t need the large scale expansion of stops that would be needed for electric. Pure electric makes sense for operators like Walmart doing short haul/regional stuff. With the real estate and roof space they have, providing much of their own power for charging is feasible which helps amortize some of the high cost of these trucks and allows their trucks to charge every time they make a stop at one of their locations which brings up another point. Those trucks aren’t going to need to compete for a charging spot when they stop. In long haul, no matter how many spots we put in, even if all the spots are electric, it will be decades until all of the legacy equipment is off the road and a guy taking his break in his diesel truck isn’t going to be able or willing to move so another guy can charge his truck which is a safety issue. If people think there’s a trucker shortage now, wait until a few guys get stuck blocking and entrance or worse, stall on a highway because they couldn’t find a charge. Even if they manage to get ranges somewhere near the 650-700 miles most long haul trucks do during and average work day, they’re going to be pulling in to that truck stop on figurative fumes at the end of their shift. Go out for a trip for a few days with and actual trucker and see how you think it will work after. In a perfect world, we would have enough infrastructure in all the places it is needed and battery technology will be so good, it doesn’t add 5 tons to the weight of a truck and charges in the time a driver takes his lunch break and doesn’t destroy the environment in its production, something these analysis also never seem to take into account. Batteries as they are made now are as unsustainable as diesel in the long run and we are going to be in a world of hurt if we don’t come up with a feasible way to actually make them in a way that they can actually be recycled, which contrary to popular belief, they aren’t now. Until then, energy in liquid form of some sort is going to be needed and the engineering challenges to providing that at a cost that the industry can actually afford are far lower than trying to do the same thing with batteries alone. If you would like a realistic look at the actual challenges feel free to contact me.

      • Natural gas? Except local councils are now banning Natural Gas in new construction and soon to residential. As of Sept 2022, Nearly 100 local governments have banned natural gas. Will NG station infrastructure even be approved to be installed?

    • The range of the Tesla is such that you can charge on the legally mandated break. The fact that the Tesla Semi can not replace every truck on the road right out of the gate does not mean it is not a very viable option for a whole lot of trucking routes, particularly those that originate at a depot and return to the same depot in the evening or go between two depots. When Carl Benz built the first motor car, a horse and carriage was a better option for almost every use. When the Wright brothers flew the Flyer 1, a horse, train or ship was a better option for almost everything. An important difference is that the Tesla Semi is a much better proposition than the first Benz car or first Wright brothers airplane.

      • They need to redesign the cab and work on the range before drivers are going to be willing to accept this new technology. A redesign of the body wouldn’t hurt either. I’ll keep my paid off 2019 Freightliner for now until they make some improvements. It seems like they didn’t consult any truck drivers when designing this truck. I’m hopeful that in the future they can work out these issues but for now it isn’t a viable option for owner operators.

      • I totally agree with your comment. Things don’t happen overnight. It takes time I believe some people live in fantasy Island.

    • You should do your homework on Hydrogen. It currently takes 3x as much electricity to manufacture, compress, store and transport hydrogen than it does to put the energy into a battery and use it directly. If the grid cannot support EV’s how on earth will we be able to change to the massive demand for electricity for hydrogen?
      Besides, the only reason governments are pushing hydrogen is so they can control and tax it. If you can make ‘fuel’ on a roof from sunlight, it’s way trickier to tax or control.
      Have you considered the complexity of the FCV drivetrain and who would be able to work on it? Most of the problems on EV’s can be repaired over the air (mainly Tesla sofar). FCV’s would also need more regular inspections due to the dangers of hydrogen leaks vs electric trucks that usually have 60% longer service intervals.
      Battery energy density is also at a point of exponential improvement. It is predicted that within the next year it will double from what is currently in production. Have a look at Sodium Sulphur etc etc.

  23. Regional trucking is not 100 to 250 miles. Regional trucking is 3+ states. For instance 11 western states is considered Regional. The milage from my location in SoCal to Bellingham WA is 1300 miles one way and it’s Regional. And you can drive 14 hrs in a 24 hr period! 11 hrs driving 10 hrs off = 21 hrs then on the road again. CA hrs (load originates & terminates in Ca) is 12 & 16 hrs. You know barely of what you speak! Maybe X% of trucking is local but those trucks are fed by OTR drivers. And currently the Tyco trucks are unworkable for the for the supply chain in its current form.

    • Ok, then only for local and dedicated routes. Still 40% of the overall market.

      What is regional trucking?
      Regional trucking refers to the part of the country a driver moves goods and materials. Typically, it’s broken up into divisions like Northeast, and Midwest and usually within a 1,000 mile radius. With OTR and regional trucking, the format is mostly the same – you are out driving for a set amount of time, then, depending on your company’s policy, home for certain number of days. Regional trucking days usually coincide with weekends which is a main appeal for this type of route over OTR.

      What is local trucking?
      Local trucking allows the driver to be home every night, which can be a real benefit to those with a family. The routes are local, typically within a 200 mile radius and consist of an 8-10 hour work day. Local trucking can be more difficult than OTR or regional trucking due to the nature of the job. With local trucking, you’ll need to be able to navigate smaller roads on a regular basis rather than the highway, as well as, backing into tight loading docks multiple times a day, which is why many local truck driving companies require at least a year of CDL driving experience.

      What is a Dedicated Route?
      A dedicated route is when a trucking company services the same company or location regularly. More often than not a truck driver will pick up a load at a regular location and then deliver it to a dedicated customer.

  24. Why does every Tesla article sound like it is written by Elon’s PR department? Maybe the authors are afraid of getting kicked off Twitter for telling the truth.

  25. Cab design may be trivial, but for those stuck with the early tesla trucks it won’t be a trivial problem, and will likely deter others from them if not quickly remedied. I would also guess the used market will have little use for early tesla trucks because of their poor design.

  26. Every article is a sad list of excuses for why your boys vision always seems to fall short in reality. When this truck gets out in the real world, and nobody is happy with it but the company hauling potato chips (mostly air),I look forward to continuing to read your emails.

    • Reality – highest net income of any car company despite selling 1.35 million cars vs 8m+ for toyota.
      Tesla Model Y annual revenue more than Corolla revenue, F150 revenue … Any car model

      Just keeping Pepsi happy would be 20,000+ Semi. Pepsi has 40000+ trucks.

    • You see my friend that is where you are wrong frito hauls there salsa ,pepsi,Gatorade, Beer and spices ,salt those weight in at excess of 44,000 to almost 50,000 lbs so put that in your balloon and haul air with it . Former OTR Driver for Frito Lay / PepsiCo retired after 27 years .

  27. Why don’t they move the freaking batteries to the trailer…that would solve some of the stop to recharge issues… At least when changing loads…

    • It would also make the tractor dead…it would only be able to move while connected to a trailer. Placing batteries in both would raise costs dramatically…twice the BMS, twice the controllers, twice the inverters…

  28. Uh Tesla semi wasn’t announced as the go to for short range trucking, it was announced as the replacement for trucking period as it would be “economic suicide” to run anything else. Furthermore it was said to beat rail too.

    Your focus on trying to spin the Tesla semi as good for short travel doesn’t make what it was announced to have been for suddenly disappear.

    Like the Vegas loop the semi isn’t delivering what was originally promised. Even Pepsi seemingly isn’t trusting the semi to haul heavy loads to the “max distance” of 500 miles, they’re keeping it to just over 100 miles with soda hauls and only letting it go further carrying mostly air filled bags of their chips the 500 miles. This says a lot about the actual capabilities of the semi itself. And what it says isn’t favorable in regards to what was initially stated to be it’s capabilities.

    I’m sure Tesla will find a market for the vehicle, but it isn’t the game changer they said it was going to be. Just another case of big promises from Elon and little deliveries actually made 3 years late.

    • Bottling plants are built close to their customers, so the shorter distance for hauling beverages has to do with where the bottling plant is relative to the distribution center. Tesla has shown that they can haul a full (82,000lbs CVW) 500+ miles in moderate temperatures at slow highway speeds. If they can sell for anything close to the initial price, they can easily sell tens of thousands of units per year.

  29. If they can get around 600 miles it would be good for owner drivers as 12 hours of driving 12 hours of charging

  30. No windows. You have exit the truck to speak to anyone or hand them paperwork. Door is on the back of the cab. Tracks dirt all thru the truck, and prevents a bunk being installed. Center driver position reduces forward view. And best estimates of tractor weight is about 22 thousand or more. Way too heavy for most applications.

    • As the article above just mentioned, cab layout is something that is trivial to change and would be available in a variety of different models.

      Vehicle net mass is a far more fundamental problem. I suspect they are planning on the steady improvement in battery energy density to solve this issue while they are working on other issues like the charger network.

    • I know it has cameras, but a driver sitting in the middle can’t look out a window while backing. Never being able to look out a window while backing would take getting used to.

  31. Long will happen with time, if it take another 5-10 years, so be it. As long as electric semi’s continue to replace diesel, who cares what void the fill.

  32. Tesla should focus on the short-haul market. They should also focus on the local delivery market as well (FedEx, UPS, Amazon Prime). These vehicles tend to be driven locally over relatively short distances. The delivery vehicles also start and stop a lot. They also return to central depots each and every night, where they can be recharged all night, each and every night. These are the kind of applications are are ideal for electric motors.

    • It’s exactly what they’re doing. Enterprising carriers will work on how to achieve the cost advantage of BEV trucks for otr trucking, but it will take time. J.B. Hunt ordered 40.

    • For deliveries (FedEX, UPS) you would modify the Cybertruck chassis.
      Semi will be good for deliveries in traffic/cities.

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