Halter Ferguson Financial is a financial advisory, asset management company. They have announced they will release a 6-8 page report that leverages the Tesla Semi truck and Megapack analysis that Nextbigfuture released over the last month.
Financial Manager Gary Black has also gotten on board the Megapack will be a very significant and profitable analysis.
Megapack and Semi truck will become several times more important to Tesla and the world than just electric cars. The technology and infrastructure will applied to make Cybertruck a large success and globally dominant for commercial purposes.
Join in 50 minutes. The analysis of the past months on the change for Tesla energy has been picked up by @MatchasmMatt @garyblack00 @bradsferguson Join us for more of this leading in depth analysis https://t.co/Ptez70LZX7
— nextbigfuture (@nextbigfuture) January 9, 2023
My firm (Halter Ferguson) will be releasing a research piece on $TSLA in a few weeks w/@MatchasmMatt
Probably about 6-8 pages & will include a bear, base, and bull case for MEGAPACK.
Thanks @nextbigfuture @Zerosumgame33 @RandyWKirk1 @MarketMaven2022 @JPSartre_NoExit @SjvTesla pic.twitter.com/lXwRdBgGCB
— Bradford Ferguson (@bradsferguson) January 9, 2023
I have made videos and over a dozen articles on the Tesla Semi Truck and the bundling of Megapack and solar that is required.
I have compared the Tesla Semi to the Freightliner electric trucks and against diesel trucks.
I have analyzed all of the electric semi trucks in detail.
and looked at the overall US and World markets. I have looked at the issues for the electrical grid and utilities.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Putting aside the somewhat dubious efficiency claims of the operations of the Tesla semi along established shipping routes (time = money, and if you’re spending a lot of time charging, you’re not making money) the biggest impediment to this scaling is the impact on the grid.
You can’t have 4M trucks each pulling down 1MwH several times a day with the existing system. Or even a well designed replacement system. The reality is that per weight/volume, diesel is way ahead of batteries. This likely won’t change unless there’s some massive innovation in battery tech.
It’s much more plausible to assume hydrogen powered freight fleets end up being the dominant model. Even within the next decade. The current grid cannot handle even a tenth of the scale needed for Tesla semi to work out.
Hydrogen fleets would need similarly massively scaled. Decarbonizing energy and other industries globally using hydrogen will require investment of almost $15 trillion between now and 2050, the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) said in a report. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/15-trillion-global-hydrogen-investment-needed-2050-research-2021-04-26/
Hydrogen vehicles are now 1% of the battery electric vehicles and infrastructure.
Wow! So , Brian,you predict Tesla “other” will turn a profit instead of losing billions? Bold prediction, that’s your call for 4Q 2022?
Always said the car building business was peanuts compared to the energy division’s future possibilities in energy storage.
Hi Brian, can you comment on recent “Tesla Economist” tweets/YT vids, analyses? He is pretty famous in the community. He was extreme bull for years, but since the beginning of 2023 he basically became bearish. He and his Dad panicked, sold(his Dad) shares around 31.12.22 and lost $10M (pikachu face).
Tesla economist analysis is messed up because of his emotional state. It is a very difficult time and situation for him.
The reason why distributed semi-mega charging stations are viable isn’t the cost of batteries, solar, grid connections, charging times, CO2, subsidies, etc.
They are viable because their competition is Diesel. You can charge a semi driver 3x the going rate for electricity and it will still be a bargain compared to filling with Diesel. There is a strong economic motivation to put batteries in to a charging station because you can make significantly more $ discharging those batteries in to a semi than in to the grid.
There are 2749 km between Tesla’s NV battery factory and their TX assembly plant. Expect the first seven semi charging stations to be situated along this route.
Thus aren’t good new for Tesla Semi sales…
For 2 reasons:
1. The cost per semi will rise by $300K to $500K
2. Currently the world demand for BSS such as Tesla Megapack is much higher then demand (this is why Tesla doubled the Megapack cost from $1M to $2M), so if a truck fleet operators need to wait for 2 years before he can get a BSS (it realy can be from any BSS manufacturer not just Tesla) then he will not buy a Tesla Semi.