Tesla Orders After Deep Price Cuts in 2023 Are Double Production Levels $TSLA

Tesla has released its fourth quarter earnings.

Tesla had their earnings call.

Highlights of the call:
Year-to-date order demand is over double production levels. This is due to increased demand from the price cuts.
Tesla is splitting the Nevada Panasonic battery tax credits. Assuming 50-50 split this would be about $150m per quarter. This will increase to $250 million per quarter from tax credits as battery production increases.
Tesla should stay above 20% auto margin in 2023.
Tesla Dojo AI training supercomputer should be superior to Nvidia GPUs in 2024. There is a 10X potential improvement in AI training.
When FSD is fully solved there will be a magnitude improvement in the asset value of the Tesla fleet of cars.

They had 2.46 GWh in Q4 for energy deployment with about 12% gross margin.

They had 25.9% auto gross margin in Q4.

They have 400,000 users of the FSD (full self-driving) beta.

The compact car / robotaxi platform will be shown at the March 1, 2022 investor day.

$1.4 billion of negative revenue and $300 million negative impact on expenses from foreign exchange impacts in the quarter.

They guided to 1.8 million cars in 2023, which hopefully is a rock-solid sandbag number that they can easily beat even with cushion for bad macro-economic or supply chain problems.

15 thoughts on “Tesla Orders After Deep Price Cuts in 2023 Are Double Production Levels $TSLA”

  1. Anybody who throws around the word “technological singularity” all refer to an ever *accelerating* technological progress.

    There is no evidence of any singularity. The evidence goes the other direction – an ever slowing asymptote. The progress will be delayed by at least a century.

    Reply
    • I’m still of the opinion that peak tech growth was the human lifetime from say 1880 to 1960.
      We went from steam trains to cars to aeroplanes to jet aeroplanes to supersonic jets to space flight.
      We went from clumsy plate photography to motion pictures to TV.
      We went from the average person (in a western country) walking behind a horse drawn plough each day to working in a city, living in suburbs, in an electrified house with TV, radio, a car out front…

      Also, I think you put this comment on the wrong story. 😉

      Reply
  2. Too much fixation on A.I. What is the benefit in making cars so easy to drive that a driver’s mind goes numb. Especially when just one mistake out of every billion A.I. calculations will make an A.I. driving mistake a hazard. Tesla should also be making the ultimate gas powered car that combines all that has been learned, with NO internal A.I. Make A.I. a plug in feature for those that want it.

    Reply
  3. If you believe in FSD, you’re in the minority. The take rate on new cars is tiny. On used cars, the option adds very little to the list price.

    Not saying they’re right, but people vote with their dollars. Most think FSD is vaporware.

    Reply
    • Even if FSD eventually becomes usable, there is a serious time factor when it comes to new cars.
      There is a large segment of the “new car market” that only keep a car for 4 or 5 years. If you paid for FSD in 2019 there is a good chance you trade the car in before you ever get to enjoy that “feature”.

      Reply
  4. Musk better be nicer to Democrats. 49% of revenues are due to tax credits (what are called “regulatory credits” in the Financial Summary). Does Musk believe a second Trump administration will keep or update those credits?
    Nah, most likely they’ll emulate what Wyoming is trying to do and to tax EVs out of existence by 2035, if not sooner…unless Trump is so angry at disloyal Liz Chenny that he torpedoes anything coming out of her state.

    Reply
  5. “When FSD is fully solved there will be a magnitude improvement in the asset value of the Tesla fleet of cars”
    2040 AT THE EARLIEST BEFORE THE TECH IS ROBUST AND GOVERNMENTS SIGN OFF ON THE SAFETY. HOWEVER GEOFENCED AREAS ARE A VERY DIFFERENT CASES.

    Reply
    • It’s very probable the tech will be robustly practical THIS year, the first year it will be offered to all customers that paid for it and when its revenue will be booked immediately. There are a variety of paths to regulatory approval, but none are likely to take longer than 5 years so 2029 is a not later than date. That year Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi models with HW4+ will have been in production a couple years already, Dojo will be on Gen2, there will be millions of Tesla FSD vehicles streaming data. We’re now in the trough of despair of the hype curve and projections tend to err in being too conservative.

      Reply
      • Someone assures me the tech will be ready this year? They may well be correct.

        Someone assures me the regulatory issues with the government will be easily solved within a couple of years? How’s that nuclear power coming along?

        Reply

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