Tesla Will Have Abundant 4680 Batteries in a Few Years

Elon Musk told his Tesla Nevada team that the new $3.6 billion Semi truck and 4680 factory will start with a 100 GWh/year production target but in the long term will expand to 500 GWh/year. This will be part of Tesla producting 1000-3000 GWh/year of 4680 batteries in total from Austin, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada. They will also have supplier batteries from CATL, LG Chem, BYD and others.

Tesla will have so many 4680 batteries that they will not just go into Semi, Cybertruck and other cars but into stationary storage as well.

Iron LFP batteries are the better chemistry to use in stationary storage.

The logical conclusion is that Tesla will make iron LFP 4680 batteries for stationary storage.

The lithium iron phosphate battery [LFP, lithium ferro-phosphate] is a type of lithium-ion battery using lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO
4) as the cathode material, and a graphitic carbon electrode with a metallic backing as the anode.

They are lower cost, safer, low toxicity, long cycle life and other factors, LFP batteries are finding a number of roles in vehicle use, utility-scale stationary applications, and backup power. LFP batteries are cobalt-free.

In late 2022, LFP type battery market share for EV’s reached 31%. 68% was from Tesla via CATL and Chinese EV maker BYD production alone.

Chinese manufacturers currently hold a near monopoly of LFP battery type production, however, patents having started to expire in 2022 and the increased demand for cheaper EV batteries. LFP type production is expected to rise further to surpass NMC type batteries by 2028.

The energy density of an LFP battery is lower than that of other common lithium ion battery types such as nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA), and also has a lower operating voltage. CATL’s LFP batteries are currently at 125-watt-hours (Wh) per kg, up to possibly 160 Wh/kg with improved packing technology, while BYD’s LFP batteries are at 150 Wh/kg, compared to over 300 Wh/kg for the highest NMC batteries.

Panasonic 2170 NCA batteries used in Tesla’s Model 3 are around 260 Wh/kg, which is 70% of its theoretical limits.

4 thoughts on “Tesla Will Have Abundant 4680 Batteries in a Few Years”

  1. Hm… They have not started building the factory yet. Let us say that it takes Tesla a year to build the battery factory and then two years to ramp up. They are still ramping their battery production in Freemont and Austin, and at least for Freemont they have been optimizing/developing the production for a couple of years.

    So we might be at 100 GWh/year in beginning 2026… Which feels very late to me. By that time, the world market will be several TWh per year and 100 GWh is small potatoes.

    I am mildly disappointed that Tesla did not start to build multiple battery factories a year or two ago. And why do they only have ONE megapack factory? Remember, the maximum capacitor of that factory is 40 GWh per year, which is not all that much either if you want to reach a TWh per year by 2030.

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  2. When will I be guaranteed of ordering a 3 and it coming with the 4680 batteries? My only question that no one at the local gallery can/will answer.

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